Phillips - Battle for Syria: international rivalry in the new Middle East

THE BATTLE FOR SYRIA

Copyright 2016 Christopher Phillips

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Phillips, Christopher (Lecturer in international relations of the Middle East), author.

Title: The battle for Syria : international rivalry in the new Middle East / Christopher Phillips.

Description: New Haven : Yale University Press, 2016.

LCCN 2016022863 | ISBN 9780300217179 (hardback)

LCSH: SyriaHistoryCivil War, 2011- | World politics. | BISAC: HISTORY / Modern / 21st Century. | HISTORY / Middle East / General. | HISTORY / Military / General. | POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General. | POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / Terrorism.

Classification: LCC DS98.6 .P5 2016 | DDC 956.9104/2dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016022863

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Contents

Acknowledgements

This book is the result of five years of research on the international relations of the Syrian civil war. It has taken me to fourteen different countries, from ministries to refugee camps, where countless people have gone out of their way to assist me. I am extremely grateful to all of those who have helped and encouraged me along the way. I want to particularly thank those who have asked not to be named. A work such as this is dependent on the willingness of those with intimate knowledge of the conflict whether policy-makers, government officials or those caught in the fighting to speak frankly and openly about their experiences and observations. To the dozens who have shared their insights but understandably prefer to remain anonymous, my sincerest thanks.

My deepest thanks also to everyone at Yale University Press for supporting this work and making it a reality: to Heather McCallum for helping channel my broad ideas into a workable volume; to Rachael Lonsdale for answering my endless, no doubt tedious, queries; and to Melissa Bond and Beth Humphries for their sharp editorial work.

The School of Politics and International Relations at Queen Mary, University of London, has been my professional home throughout this project, and I am most appreciative of the wide-ranging support it has offered. Multiple research trips have been generously funded, as has a sabbatical. I am grateful to all my colleagues for helping create such a friendly and stimulating environment to work in, but particular thanks must go to Adam Fagan, a hugely encouraging Head of School, and to Lee Jones, Bryan Mabee and Eleanor Bindman, who kindly read over draft chapters and papers. My second home during this time has been Chatham House, where I am an associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Programme and where I helped found the Syria and its Neighbours Policy Initiative. This initiative has allowed me access to many key policy-makers in the conflict, which proved invaluable to this book. The Chatham House team and other associate fellows, past and present, have been incredibly supportive of my work, including involving me in informative research trips and workshops. Special thanks are due to Abdullah Ali, Sara Bazoobandi, Doris Carrion, Kristian Coates Ullrichsen, Tim Eaton, Hassan Hassan, Jane Kinninmont, Neil Quilliam, Claire Spencer and Helen Twist.

Away from London, I must thank the three institutions that kindly hosted me while I conducted field research: the Georgetown Center for Contemporary Arab studies in Washington, DC; the Orient Institut in Beirut; and the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies in Riyadh. I am also extremely grateful to the following, who, in many different ways, supported, helped and facilitated my research: Dania Akkad, Malik al-Abdeh, the Arab Peace Center for Research and Policy Studies in Doha, Gokhan Bacik, Julian Barnes-Dacey, Abdul Hakim Bashar, Andrew Bowen, Lakhdar Brahimi, Alistair Burt, Glen Carey, Martin Chulov, Simon Collis, Roland Dannreuther, Ramazan Daurov, Toby Dodge, Chris Doyle, Fillipo Dionigi, Abigail Fielding-Smith, Robert Ford, Alice Fordham, Jasmine Gani, the Genc family, Fawaz Gerges, Bryan Gibson, Haid Haid, Ibrahim Hamidi, Raymond Hinnebusch, Steven Heydemann, Fred Hof, Marwan Kabalan, Mehran Kamrava, Saban Kardas, Brian Katulis, Rania Kiblawi, Caroline Kinj, Kemal Kirisci, Bassma Kodmani, Andreas Krieg, Marc Lynch, Thomas McGee, Jihad Makdissi, Alexey Maleshenko, Kevin Mazur, Else Melkonian, Vitaly Naumkin, Daniel Neep, Ahmed al-Omran, Soli Ozel, Jeremy Shapiro, Steven Simon, Randa Slim, Ken Sofer, Andrew Tabler, Gonul Tol, Ilhan Uzgel, Steven Walt, Becca Wasser, Katherine Wilkins, Jon Wilks, Steven Wright, Paul Wood and Irina Zvyagelskaya.

I must express special thanks to David Lesch, David Butter and the anonymous reviewers who kindly looked over early drafts of the manuscript, offering valuable recommendations and feedback. Finally, I must thank my family, friends and loved ones, without whose support this book could not have been written.

This book is dedicated to the people of Syria, on all sides of this vicious and tragic conflict, who deserve better from the world.

Christopher Phillips
Queen Mary University of London, May 2016

Key actors and abbreviations

The Assad regime and its allies

The regime

Bashar al-Assad, Syrian President 2000

Hafez al-Assad, Syrian President 19712000

Asma al-Assad (ne Akhras), Syrias First Lady 2000

Maher al-Assad, brother of Bashar al-Assad, Commander of Republican Guard and 4th Armoured Division

Anisa Makhlouf, mother of Bashar al-Assad

Assif Shawkat, brother-in-law of Bashar al-Assad, head of military intelligence 20059, deputy minister of defence 201112

Rami Makhlouf, cousin of Bashar al-Assad, wealthy businessman

Manaf Tlass, Republican Guard General, defected 2012

Farouk al-Sharaa, First Vice President of Syria 2006

Walid al-Muallem, Foreign Minister 2006

Bouthaina Shabaan, political and media adviser to the Syrian President 2008

Baath Arab Socialist Baath Party, the ruling party of Syria since 1963

Mukhabarat Set of notorious regime intelligence agencies

Shabiha Gangs of irregular pro-regime thugs

NDF National Defence Force, formed 2013

Russia

Vladimir Putin, Russian President 20008, 2012, Russian Prime Minister 200812

Dmitri Medvedev, Russian President 200812, Russian Prime Minister 2012

Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Minister 2004

Mikhail Bogdanov, Deputy Foreign Minister 2011

Iran

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran 1989

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iranian President 200513

Hassan Rouhani, Iranian President 2013

Ali Akbar Salehi, Foreign Minister 201013

Mohammad Javad Zarif, Foreign Minister 2013

Qassem Suleimani, Commander of the Quds Force 1998

IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Quds Force Special forces unit of IRGC

Hezbollah

Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah Secretary General 1992

The Assad Regimes opponents

The opposition