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Reppy Judith - Getting to zero the path to nuclear disarmament?

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Reppy Judith Getting to zero the path to nuclear disarmament?

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The vision of a world free of nuclear weapons / David Holloway -- Advocacy for nuclear disarmament : a global revival? / Randy Rydell -- Is a world without nuclear weapons attainable? : comparative perspectives on goals and prospects / Gtz Neuneck -- The U.S. nuclear arsenal and zero : sizing and planning for use : past, present, and future / Lynn Eden -- Nuclear deterrence, disarmament and non-proliferation / Alexei Arbatov -- British thinking on nuclear weapons / Ian Anthony -- Frances nuclear stance : independence, unilateralism and adaptation / Venance Journ -- Challenges for U.S.-China strategic stability in the Obama administration / Jeffrey Lewis -- Regional consequences : Europe, nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation : what next? / Nadia Arbatova -- Israels nuclear future : Iran, opacity and the vision of global zero / Avner Cohen -- Iran policy on the way to zero / Jill Marie Lewis with Laicie A.N. Olson -- India and nuclear zero / W. Pal Sidhu -- Fissile materials and disarmament : long-term goals, short-term steps / James Acton -- Nuclear zero at the weapons laboratories / Judith Reppy -- Is the civil nuclear industry relevant to nuclear disarmament? / Marco DeAndreis and Simon Moore -- Nuclear abolition or nuclear umbrella? : choices and contradictions in U.S. proposals / Matthew Evangelista -- American conventional superiority : the balancing act / Dennis Gormley -- Steps toward a world free of nuclear weapons / David Holloway -- Practical steps toward nuclear zero / Peter Dombrowski.

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GETTING TO ZERO
THE PATH TO NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT
Edited by
Catherine McArdle Kelleher and Judith Reppy
Stanford Security Studies
An Imprint of Stanford University Press
Stanford, California 2011

Stanford University Press

Stanford, California

2011 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University.

All rights reserved.

No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system without the prior written permission of Stanford University Press.

Printed in the United States of America on acid-free, archival-quality paper

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Getting to zero : the path to nuclear disarmament / edited by Catherine McArdle Kelleher and Judith Reppy.

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-0-8047-7394-2 (cloth : alk. paper)

ISBN 978-0-8047-7702-5 (pbk. : alk. paper)

ISBN 978-0-8047-7772-8 (e-book)

1. Nuclear disarmament. 2. Nuclear weaponsGovernment policy. I. Kelleher, Catherine McArdle, editor of compilation. II. Reppy, Judith (Judith Voris), editor of compilation.

JZ 5675. G 492011

327.1747dc22

2010043065

Typeset at Stanford University Press in 10/14 Minion

Special discounts for bulk quantities of Stanford Security Studies are available to corporations, professional associations, and other organizations. For details and discount information, contact the special sales department of Stanford University Press. Tel: (650) 736-1782, Fax: (650) 736-1784

FIGURES AND TABLES
FIGURES
TABLES
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Books, like families, require myriad sources for success: strong personal relationships, supportive environments, funding, and considerable luck. We have been fortunate in all these domains and wish to extend our thanks to those individuals and institutions whose contributions and confidence in the enterprise have helped us bring this volume to fruition.

The book represents the last step in a fascinating decade-long research project launched under two titles, the Dialogue of Americans, Russians, and Europeans (DARE) and its predecessor, Germans, Americans, and Russians in Dialogue (GARD), both made possible by generous grants from the Carnegie Corporation. Deana Arsenian, now Carnegie vice president, provided intellectual and financial support from the very first days at Aspen Berlin. We were also aided by funding for this volume from the Watson Institute of International Studies at Brown, the home of DARE since 2002, and its Project on Nuclear Dilemmas of the 21st Century. Cornell Universitys Peace Studies Program under the leadership of Jonathan Kirshner and Elaine Scott generously allowed Sandra Kisner to serve as copy-editor extraordinaire. We could not have finished the project without her help.

Our abiding thanks for the book itself go to our contributors, who were not only excellent partners but also patient and responsive collaborators throughout all the problems of editing and writing on two continents. Particular gratitude goes to David Holloway, who got us started and was there for the finish as well. Our deep appreciation, too, to those who provided all manner of help in the production process: Simon Moore and Philip Maxon in College Park, and Scott Warren in Providence. Sheila Fournier, Ellen White, and Christine Kilgus were the outstanding Brown masters in financial management and meeting organization.

We have also been fortunate in the people and locations who allowed us to test and improve our thoughts along the way. Carlo Schaerf and ISODARCO provided a stage for the first public presentations of our arguments in January 2009 at the ISODARCO Winter Course in Andalo, Italy. We are grateful to the Italian funders that made that possible: the physics departments of the Universities of Rome Tor Vergata and of Trento; The Fondazione Opera Campana dei Caduti of Rovereto and in particular its Reggente, Prof. Sen. Alberto Robol; the Giunta della Provincia Autonoma di Trento and the presidencies of the Trentino Alto Adige regional council and of the Trentino provincial council. Physicians for Social Responsibility through Jill Marie Lewis supported our authors meeting in May 2009 in Washington, DC.

The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) provided Catherine much needed stimulation, space, and services. Catherine wishes also to give particular thanks to Thomas Biersteker, Barbara Stallings, and Michael Kennedy, all Watson Institute directors, for their personal support of DARE activities, and to John Birkelund, long-time chairman of the Watson Board for his critical interest.

Catherine McArdle Kelleher, College Park, Maryland

Judith Reppy, Ithaca, New York

ABBREVIATIONS

ABM

Anti-Ballistic Missile (Treaty)

AMS

(Chinese) Academy of Military Sciences

ASMP

Air-Sol Moyenne Porte (medium-range air-to-surface missile)

ASOC

Air Sovereignty Operation Centers

AWE

[UK] Atomic Weapons Establishment

BMD

ballistic missile defense

CAEP

Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics

CAI

Cooperative Airspace Initiative

CD

(Geneva) Conference on Disarmament

CDU

Christian-Democratic Union (Germany)

CEA

Commissariat lEnergie Atomique (French Atomic Energy

Commission)

CEP

circular error probable

CFE

Conventional Forces in Europe

CFSP

Common Foreign and Security Policy

CIRUS

Canada-India-Reactor-United States

CISAC

Committee on International Security and Arms Control

CNS

[Russian] Concept of National Security

CSGAC

Chinese Scientists Group for Arms Control

CSU

Christian Social Union (Germany)

CTBT

Comprehensive (Nuclear) Test Ban Treaty

DE

damage expectancy

DOD

[U.S.] Department of Defense

DOE

[U.S.] Department of Energy

EADS

European Aeronautic Defense and Space Co.

ENDC

Eighteen Nation Disarmament Committee

EPR

European Pressurised Reactor

ESDP

European security and defense policy

FDP

Free Democratic Party (Germany)

FMCI

Fissile Material Control Initiative

FMCT

Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty

GCD

general and complete disarmament

GIRM

Graphite Isotope Ratio Method

HEU

highly-enriched uranium

HLW

high-level radioactive waste

IAEA

International Atomic Energy Agency

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