Rubin - Dancing with the devil: the perils of engaging rogue regimes

PRAISE FOR

Dancing with the Devil

Diplomacy, like any other human activity, has costs as well as benefits. Sadly, too many people believe that diplomacy is cost-free, or fail to understand that merely sitting down together at a negotiating table may simply be shifting the focus of conflict. These are the people who most need to read Dancing with the Devil, but probably wont. The rest of us should.

John Bolton, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, 20052006

Because of the current American negotiations with Iran about nuclear weapons, Michael Rubins path-breaking history, Dancing with the Devil, could not be more timely. In this illuminating book, Rubin shows how fifty years of dancing with devils by Democratic and Republican administrations has more often than not led to failure rather than success, war instead of peace. Rubin warns us that when America negotiates navely with rogue nations and terrorist groups, we pay dearly.

Senator Joseph I. Lieberman

Beautifully written in clean and direct prose, thorough in its history and analysis, and compelling in its clear-eyed recommendations, this book will become the trade and textbook standard for how a free country should deal with hostile states and regimes. Here is due respect for the subtle arts of diplomacy as well as a necessary recognition of its limits.

William J. Bennett, former U.S. Secretary of Education, fellow of the Claremont Institute, and host of the nationally syndicated radio show Morning in America

When and how should the United States engage diplomatically with difficult, dangerous, rogue regimes? No question is more important for Americas relations with the world. In Dancing with the Devil, Michael Rubin provides a deeply considered, clearly written, politically controversial, and intellectually compelling answer. This book is a must-read for anyone concerned about the future of American foreign policy.

Michael Mandelbaum, author of The Road to Global Prosperity and professor of American foreign policy at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies

Mr. Rubins extensive scholarship and cogent writing backlight his devastating portraits of a bipartisan, sequential failure of American governance. We can only hope that more courageous (and probably more junior) faculty members will follow Mr. Rubins cogent suggestion that we teach our future diplomats how their pompous predecessors failed for decades to defend American strategic interests.

The Washington Times

With his timely new book, Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes, Dr. Michael Rubin deconstructs over three decades of largely misguided diplomacy with Iranthe worlds leading state sponsor of terrorism. His brilliant study of engagement with bad actors is not limited to the Islamic Republic. All of this helps explain why Rubins policy prescriptions and insights into Irans behavior warrant intense examination. It is not too late for his analysis to inform the government officials and policy involved in the Iran talks.

The Jerusalem Post

2014, 2015 by Michael Rubin

Preface 2015 by Michael Rubin

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First American edition published in 2014 by Encounter Books, an activity of Encounter for Culture and Education, Inc., a nonprofit, tax exempt corporation.

Encounter Books website address: www.encounterbooks.com

The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of ANSI/NISO Z39.481992 (R 1997) (Permanence of Paper).

First paperback edition published in 2015.

THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS HAS CATALOGUED THE HARDCOVER EDITION AS FOLLOWS:

Rubin, Michael, 1971

Dancing with the devil: the perils of engaging rogue regimes / Michael Rubin.

pages cm

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-1-59403-798-6 (ebook)

1. State-sponsored terrorismPrevention. 2. TerrorismPreventionPolitical aspects. 3. Diplomacy. 4. International relations. 5. National securityUnited States. 6. United StatesForeign relations. I. Title.

HV6431.R85 2013

327.117dc23

2013020658

CONTENTS

In the year since the first edition of Dancing with the Devil appeared, threats have erupted around the globe: Russia has invaded Ukraine and now threatens the Baltic states; Syria has admitted that it did not actually destroy all its chemical weapons; war broke out between Israel and Hamas; the Taliban is resurgent; North Korea may have acquired the capability to put nuclear warheads on its missiles and Iran is likely not far behind. The irony is that diplomacy may have exacerbated all these problems.

Russias invasion of Ukraine came after a concerted effort by President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to reset relations with Russia. To ensure that diplomacy continued and to prove its effectiveness to an American audience, the Obama administration turned a blind eye to evidence of Vladimir Putins insincerity, his hostility to the West, and his aggressive stance toward his neighbors. The administration, for example, hid evidence that Russia had violated the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty when, in 2010, it submitted ), the White House and the State Department in 2010 feared that acknowledging Russian malfeasance might undercut the Senates willingness to affirm any deal.

Whitewashing the behavior of rogues, however, never brings peace. When rogues become convinced that the United States will look the other way to keep diplomacy alive, the result is often more aggression. Leverage matters. While Putins invasion of Crimea had long been planned, not every plan is implemented. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagels acknowledgment that the United States would reduce its military to preWorld War II levels probably signaled to Putin that he could act with impunity. Russian forces marched into Crimea four days later. Resetting relations with Russia requires not a new diplomatic push, but rather a new Russia.

In Syria, Bashar al-Assad continues to confound American diplomacy as well. Syria has been a reactionary state hostile to the United States and its allies for decades, but today President Assad has transformed his country into the poster child for rogue regimes. Having complete mastery of the skies, he uses his air force to drop barrel bombs on civilians. His militias have kidnapped and mutilated children in order to cow the populace into submission. Obama had long resisted involvement in Syria, and instead sought a diplomatic solution. He famously drew a red line, saying, We have been very clear to the Assad regime... that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized. That would change my calculus. And yet, when Assads forces subsequently used chemical weapons against civilians in the opposition area in the eastern suburbs of Damascus, Obama stood down. He chose to endorse a deal in which Assad would simply declare his chemical weapons and allow the international community to neutralize them.

Even if Assad were to respect this deal, it came at the cost of precedent: Rogue leaders could use chemical weapons against civilians once and, in effect, get away with murder so long as they cooperated with the international community afterward. The problem was that Assad did not respect the deal and never intended to do so. He later acknowledged that he had not declared let alone destroyed his entire arsenal. By then, however, momentum against Assad had evaporated. With Obama demonstrating that the continuing talk trumped accountability and adherence to deals, the Syrian leader doubled down on violence. Nor was the failure to uphold the red line limited to Syria; indeed, it may have convinced Putin in the weeks before the invasion of Crimea that he had nothing to fear, no matter what Obama said.