Ted Piccone - Five Rising Democracies

GEOPOLITICS IN THE 21ST CENTURY

For a quarter century since the fall of the Berlin Wall, the world has enjoyed an era of deepening global interdependence, characterized by the absence of the threat of great power war, spreading democracy, and declining levels of conflict and poverty. Now, much of that is at risk as the regional order in the Middle East unravels, the security architecture in Europe is again under threat, and great power tensions loom in Asia.

The Geopolitics in the 21st Century series, published under the auspices of the Order from Chaos project at Brookings, will analyze the major dynamics at play and offer ideas and strategies to guide critical countries and key leaders on how they should act to preserve and renovate the established international order to secure peace and prosperity for another generation.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data

Names: Piccone, Theodore J., author.

Title: Five rising democracies: and the fate of the international liberal order / Ted Piccone.

Description: Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, [2016] | Includes bibliographical references and index. | Description based on print version record and CIP data provided by publisher; resource not viewed.

Identifiers: LCCN 2015049705 (print) | LCCN 2015040754 (ebook) | ISBN 9780815725787 (epub)

Subjects: LCSH: New democraciesCase studies. | DemocracyCase studies. | DemocratizationCase studies. | DemocracyIndia. | DemocracyBrazil. | DemocracySouth Africa. | DemocracyTurkey. | DemocracyIndonesia.

Classification: LCC JC423 (print) | LCC JC423 .P454 2016 (ebook) | DDC 321.8dc23

LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2015049705

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Composition by Westchester Publishing Services

To Susan and our three beautiful birds in the trees and, forever, to my parents, Dante and Margaret

Table of Contents

Contents

The future beckons to us. Whither do we go and what shall be our endeavour? To bring freedom and opportunity to the common man, to the peasants and workers of India; to fight and end poverty and ignorance and disease; to build up a prosperous, democratic and progressive nation, and to create social, economic and political institutions which will ensure justice and fullness of life to every man and woman.... To the nations and peoples of the world we send greetings and pledge ourselves to cooperate with them in furthering peace, freedom and democracy.

JAWAHARLAL NEHRU, on the occasion of Indias independence, August 1415, 1947

The world in which emerging powers and responsible stakeholders promoting common security and prosperity has yet to arrive, but its within our grasp to see that happen.

VICE PRESIDENT JOSEPH BIDEN, John F. Kennedy Library, October 2014

AT A TIME WHEN the worst excesses of human depravity appear in high fever and impervious to remedy, it is worth drawing back from the crises of the day to consider the longer arc of history. Trends the world overthe crushing of the Arab Spring, the machinations of revanchist Russia, the rise of nondemocratic China, the entrenched retrogression of democracy in places like Venezuela and Thailand, the proliferation of outrageous acts of terrorism against the innocent, and the thwarted striving of millions of migrants for a better lifesuggest we are even further away from realizing the vision Indias independence leader so eloquently articulated nearly seventy years ago. This dystopic perspective, however, is not the whole story. A deeper look at trends of freedom, opportunity, and development, particularly in some of the worlds rising democracies, offers a more hopeful picture, not only for their own societies but for the larger cause of human rights and rule of law around the world.

Home to a quarter of the worlds population, five emerging democratic powersIndia, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, and Indonesiahave a special and powerful role to play as examples of human progress in political, economic, and development terms. Moreover, their potential contributions as prosperous democracies actively committed to protecting international security, fundamental freedoms, and human development will likely, in my view, determine the fate of the international liberal order so painstakingly constructed over the past seven decades. Will they rise to the challenge of becoming responsible stakeholders prepared to shape the international agenda in favor of human rights and democratic development? Or will they choose the path of narrowly self-interested swing states oriented toward more parochial concerns and aligned with nondemocratic powers regardless of how those states treat their citizens? This book seeks to answer these questions, and many others, by taking a historical perspective grounded in liberal internationalism, current geopolitical realities of multipolarity, and an intensive empirical review of these five nations behavior in domestic and foreign policy arenas.

I came to this subject as an intellectual labor of love to understand how and why democracies qua democracies occupy a distinctive place on the global stage and how they can and should shoulder a heavier burden in the age-old quest for international peace and development. I approach the subject from my hybrid experience as an observer and practitioner of international law and politics, one admittedly rooted in American values but sensitive to and cognizant of the multiple ways in which human rights and democracy have universal appeal and application. As an optimist, I believe the international liberal order can be improved despite the onslaught of challenges it faces. It is impossible, however, to imagine a better world without a solid foundation of democratic societies that respect human rights and practice tolerance and cooperation. Only on that basis may a coherent and functioning international liberal order rest.

This perspective helps explain my preoccupation with the trajectory of these five big democracies, which represent critical building blocks of a more democratic commons. To the skeptics, including those rightfully critical of the double standards that both established and emerging democratic states practice in their relations with others, I would argue that a descent to the lowest common denominator would only exacerbate the worlds troubles; worse, such an attitude undermines the very idea of democracy and human rightsthat individuals have a right and a responsibility to hold their governments behavior at home and abroad to a higher standard.