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Andreas Krieg - Surrogate Warfare: The Transformation of War in the Twenty-First Century

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Surrogate Warfare explores the emerging phenomenon of surrogate warfare in twenty-first century conflict. The popular notion of war is that it is fought en masse by the people of one side versus the other. But the reality today is that both state and non-state actors are increasingly looking to shift the burdens of war to surrogates. Surrogate warfare describes a patrons outsourcing of the strategic, operational, or tactical burdens of warfare, in whole or in part, to human and/or technological substitutes in order to minimize the costs of war. This phenomenon ranges from arming rebel groups, to the use of armed drones, to cyber propaganda. Krieg and Rickli bring old, related practices such as war by mercenary or proxy under this new overarching concept. Apart from analyzing the underlying sociopolitical drivers that trigger patrons to substitute or supplement military action, this book looks at the intrinsic trade-offs between substitutions and control that shapes the relationship between patron and surrogate. Surrogate Warfare will be essential reading for anyone studying contemporary conflict.

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SURROGATE WARFARE

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SURROGATE WARFARE

THE TRANSFORMATION OF WAR IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

ANDREAS KRIEG AND JEAN-MARC RICKLI

2019 Georgetown University Press All rights reserved No part of this book may - photo 1

2019 Georgetown University Press. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.

The publisher is not responsible for third-party websites or their content.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Krieg, Andreas, author. | Rickli, Jean-Marc, author.

Title: Surrogate warfare : the transformation of war in the twenty-first century / Andreas Krieg and Jean-Marc Rickli.

Description: Washington, DC : Georgetown University Press, 2019. | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2018043577 (print) | LCCN 2018046470 (ebook) | ISBN 9781626166776 (hardcover : alk. paper) | ISBN 9781626166783

(pbk. : alk. paper) | ISBN 9781626166790 (ebook : alk. paper)

Subjects: LCSH: Military art and scienceHistory21st century. | WarHistory21st century. | Military art and scienceTechnological innovations.

Classification: LCC U42.5 (ebook) | LCC U42.5 .K745 2019 (print) | DDC 355.02dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018043577

Picture 2 This book is printed on acid-free paper meeting the requirements of the American National Standard for Permanence in Paper for Printed Library Materials.

20 19 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 First printing

Printed in the United States of America.

Cover design by N. Putens.

CONTENTS
FIGURES
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

THE IDEA FOR THIS BOOK DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FOUR YEARS AMID OUR work with militaries in Europe and the Middle East, witnessing the extent to which warfare in the twenty-first century has increasingly become a multilateral exercise involving a range of actors of which some are patrons and others surrogates. We would like to express our thanks to the various military professionals with whom we have worked and whom we have consulted and educated in recent years. Their experience and personal input into this research project was of great importance to the formulation of a conceptual argument deeply rooted in empirical evidence. Further, our gratitude goes to the reviewers whose comments and recommendations have helped sharpen the focus of this book. Finally, we would like to acknowledge the journal Defence Studies for publishing our article on surrogate warfare in early 2018, on which we have received invaluable feedback and comments from readers that have helped us refine some of the ideas and concepts in this book (Surrogate Warfare: The Art of War for the 21st Century?, Defence Studies Journal 18, no. 2).

Andreas would like to thank the students at the Joaan Bin Jassim Joint Command and Staff College in Qatar and the UK Defence Academy for their constant availability to bounce ideas and refine the argument. In particular he would like to express special gratitude to the staff of the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre at the UK Defence Academy and the Oxford Research Groups Remote Warfare Programme, whose roundtable meetings and discussion and focus groups have been instrumental in widening his horizon on all matters relating to warfare by delegation. The exchange with like-minded experts has clearly shown that there is a gap in the academic literature on what has become a quite prevalent mode of warfare in the twenty-first century that goes far beyond proxy warfare. Last but not least, Andreas would like to thank his family for their constant and unconditional support in all his endeavors. Above all, he would like to say thank you to his wife, Zohal, whose warm support, patience, and inspiration in times of writers block has helped him to stay sane and focused.

Jean-Marc would like to thank his students at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi and at the Joaan Bin Jassim Joint Command and Staff College in Qatar as well as the participants of courses on disruptive technologies and warfare at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), who have always been a receptive and critical audience to the various ideas and arguments put forward in this book. Jean-Marc is also grateful to the Department of Defence Studies of Kings College London and the GCSP for having provided the best research conditions conducive to the publication of this book, be they in terms of thoughtful exchanges with colleagues or time and freedom to conduct research. Jean-Marc would like to dedicate this book to his dad, Jean Rickli (19432017), and to Alyson J. K. Bailes (19492016), who was an intellectual mentor who showed how academic research can be applied to concrete policy and strategic problems. Finally, he would like to thank dearly his family, Emmanuelle and Alexys, for their constant support, patience, and understanding for the long time spent abroad to conduct research.

ABBREVIATIONS

AGI

artificial general intelligence

AI

artificial intelligence

AWS

autonomous weapon systems

CAS

close air support

CIA

Central Intelligence Agency (United States)

COIN

counterinsurgency

DDoS

distributed denial-of-service

DoD

Department of Defense (United States)

FSB

Federal Security Service (Russia)

GAN

generative adversarial network

GCC

Gulf Cooperation Council

IAEA

International Atomic Energy Agency

ICBM

intercontinental ballistic missile

ICRC

International Committee of the Red Cross

ICC

International Criminal Court

ICJ

International Court of Justice

IDF

Israel Defense Forces

ILC

International Law Commission

IoT

Internet of Things

IRGC

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

ISI

Inter-Services Intelligence (Pakistan)

ISIS

Islamic State in Iraq and Syria

KLA

Kosovo Liberation Army

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