Persuasive Peers
PRINCETON STUDIES IN GLOBAL AND COMPARATIVE SOCIOLOGY
Andreas Wimmer, Series Editor
Persuasive Peers: Social Communication and Voting in Latin America, Andy Baker, Barry Ames, and Lcio Renn
Give and Take: Developmental Foreign Aid and the Pharmaceutical Industry in East Africa, Nitsan Chorev
Citizenship 2.0: Dual Nationality as a Global Asset, Yossi Harpaz
Nation Building: Why Some Countries Come Together While Others Fall Apart, Andreas Wimmer
The Paradox of Vulnerability: States, Nationalism, and the Financial Crisis, John L. Campbell and John A. Hall
Persuasive Peers
SOCIALCOMMUNICATIONVOTINGLATIAMERICA
Andy Baker, Barry Ames, & Lcio Renn
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS
PRINCETON AND OXFORD
Copyright 2020 by Princeton University Press
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Baker, Andy, 1972 author. | Ames, Barry, author. | Renn, Lucio R., author.
Title: Persuasive peers : social communication and voting in Latin America / Andy Baker, Barry Ames, and Lucio Renno.
Description: Princeton : Princeton University Press, [2020] | Series: Princeton studies in global and comparative sociology | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2019056822 (print) | LCCN 2019056823 (ebook) | ISBN 9780691205786 (hardback) | ISBN 9780691205779 (paperback) | ISBN 9780691205793 (ebook)
Subjects: LCSH: VotingLatin America. | CommunicationPolitical aspectsLatin America. | Social networksPolitical aspectsLatin America. | Social influencePolitical aspectsLatin America. | Political participationLatin America. | Latin AmericaPolitics and government.
Classification: LCC JL968 .B24 2020 (print) | LCC JL968 (ebook) | DDC 324.98dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019056822
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019056823
Version 1.0
British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available
Editorial: Meagan Levinson and Jacqueline Delaney
Production Editorial: Lauren Lepow
Text Design: Lorraine Doneker
Cover Design: Karl Spurzem
Production: Brigid Ackerman
Publicity: Kate Hensley and Kathryn Stevens
Para nossos filhos, Della, Olivia, Elisa, Toms e Celina
CONTENTS
- ix
- xiii
- xvii
- xix
- xxiii
ILLUSTRATIONS
. The Evolution of Vote Intentions for Major Presidential Candidates in Brazil 2014
. Evas Network through Time
. The Effect of Political Geography on Evas Mid-campaign Network
. Evas Mid-campaign Network Expanded
. Sociograms of Two Egocentric Networks
. The Frequency of Political Discussion in 121 Country Years
. The Frequency of Political Discussion in 33 Election Campaigns
. The Number of Political Discussants in Brazil, Mexico, and the US
. The Amount of Political Discussion and TV News Consumption in Mexico 2006
. Campaign Knowledge by Exposure to Political Intermediaries in Mexico 2006: Coefficients from Three OLS Models
. Political Knowledge among Egos and Alters in Brazil 2002
. Selection of a Social Alter to Be a Political Alter by the Perceived Political Knowledge of That Alter in Four Latin American Countries: Predicted Changes in Probability from Three Binary Logit Models
. The Distribution of Political Agreement and Disagreement with Ego in Egocentric Networks in Brazil and Mexico
. Rates of Political Agreement within Discussion Dyads in 29 Election Years in 18 Countries
. The Propensity of Respondents to See Political Bias in Their Political Intermediaries in 34 Election Years in 20 Countries
. Rates of Voter Preference Change among Twice-Opinionated Respondents during Brazilian, Mexican, and Argentine Presidential Campaigns
. Rates of Voter Preference Stability among Once- and Twice-Opinionated Respondents during Brazilian, Mexican, and Argentine Presidential Campaigns
. The Evolution of Vote Intentions for Major Presidential Candidates in Brazil 2002
. The Evolution of Vote Intentions for Major Presidential Candidates in Brazil 2006
. The Evolution of Vote Intentions for Major Presidential Candidates in Brazil 2014
. The Evolution of Vote Intentions for Major Presidential Candidates in Mexico 2006
. Political Agreement and Disagreement in Three Egocentric Networks
. Political Heterogeneity in Two Egocentric Networks
. The Likelihood of Changing Vote Preference between Campaign and Election Waves by Campaign-Wave Network Traits: Predicted Probabilities from Four Binary Logit Models
. Changed Vote Preference by Network Traits in Brazil and Mexico: Coefficients from Four Binary Logit Models
. Egos Vote Choice (Y e ) by Alters Vote Choice at the Dyadic Level in Brazil and Mexico: Coefficients from Four Multinomial Logit Models
. Egos Vote Choice (Y e ) by Alters Vote Intention at the Dyadic Level in Brazil and Mexico (Stable Alters Only): Coefficients from Four Multinomial Logit Models
. Egos Runoff Vote Choice by Alters First-Round Vote Choice in Brazil: Predicted Changes in Probability from Three Models
. Rates of Preference Change by Network Disagreement at the Candidate Level in Brazil 2002, 2006, 2014, and Mexico 2006
. Preference Stability by Degree of Political Knowledge in Brazil and Mexico: Model Predictions
. The Degree of Exposure to Media among Ciro Supporters and Ciro Voters by Source and Timing in Brazil 2002
. The Distribution of Discussants by Relationship Type and Neighborhood Coresidency Status in Brazil 2002
. Feeling Thermometer Scores for the Opposing Party and for Two Leftist Movements by City in Brazil 2002
. The PTs Two-Party Vote Share in 1998 Executive Elections by Neighborhood in Caxias do Sul and Juiz de Fora
. The PTs Two-Party Vote Share in 2000 Mayoral Elections by Neighborhood in Caxias do Sul and Juiz de Fora
. Income Levels by Neighborhood in Caxias do Sul and Juiz de Fora in 2002
. The Distribution of Vote Intentions among Alters by Neighborhood Type and City in Brazil 2002: Predicted Percentages from Two Fractional Multinomial Logit Models
. Brazilian Regions and Counties by Human Development Index in 2010
. Brazils Political Realignment: PT Vote Share minus PSDB Vote Share by County in 2002 and 2006
. Brazils Regional Political Cleavage: PT Vote Share minus PSDB Vote Share by County in 2014
. Mexican States and Counties by Human Development Index in 2010
. Mexicos Regional Political Cleavage: PAN Vote Share minus PRD Vote Share by Congressional District in 2006
. The Distribution of Vote Intentions among Alters by State in Brazil 2014: Predicted Percentages from a Fractional Multinomial Logit Model
. The Distribution of Vote Intentions among Alters by State in Mexico 2006: Predicted Percentages from a Fractional Multinomial Logit Model
. Sociograms for Two Different Conceptualizations of Clientelism
. Persuasion Frequency among Targets and Non-targets in 22 Latin American Countries
. Clientelistic Targeting by Persuasion Frequency in 22 Latin American Countries in 2010: Results from Two Binary Logit Models