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Ofira Seliktar - Iran, Israel, and the United States: The Politics of Counter-Proliferation Intelligence

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Ofira Seliktar Iran, Israel, and the United States: The Politics of Counter-Proliferation Intelligence
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Iran, Israel, and the United States: The Politics of Counter-Proliferation Intelligence: summary, description and annotation

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This book analyzes the process of evaluating Irans nuclear project and the efforts to roll it back, resulting in the 2015 nuclear agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA). Despite its aura of scientific exactitude, nuclear intelligence is complex and susceptible to methodological disagreements and political bias at the international oversight levelthe International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)and within the countries involved in the rollback project Israel and the United States.To highlight both the technological problems of assessing compliance and the politicization, each chapter in the book uses a real-time comparison of the nuclear developments in Iran, and the perception of Israel and the United States. This methodology yielded some significant results. Essentially, two camps had formed in each country; those who were pushing for an agreement with Iran and those who opposed it.The Israeli intelligence agencies the Mossad and the Military Intelligence as well as the highly secretive Israeli Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) which advised them considered the program to be weak and slow moving. The right-wing government of Benjamin Netanyahu suggested that Iran was steps away from the point of no return, making it an existential threat to Israel.A virtually identical split emerged in Washington. While the intelligence community and the advising scientists from the National Nuclear Laboratories, considered Iran progress to be relatively modest, the Republicans and the Israel lobby - the Jewish organizations and the Christian Zionists warned of the imminent danger of a nuclear Iran.With the Obama administration pushing for the JCPOA, a fierce debate took place in Congress. The Israeli intelligence and military chiefs led by the Mossad chief Meir Dagan, which had previously blocked Netanyahu from a preemptive action, quietly supported the agreement. In Washington, the Israel lobby, and the Republicans, helped by Netanyahu, mounted an all-out effort to defeat the deal in Congress. The pro-deal coalition fought back by mobilizing the scientific community, military and intelligence officials, the business lobby, and grassroots Democrats.The JCPOA represents the first successful effort of peaceful counterproliferation. At the same, excessive politicization has clouded its legitimacy and cast doubt about its future.

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Iran Israel and the United States Iran Israel and the United States The - photo 1

Iran, Israel, and the United States

Iran, Israel, and the United States

The Politics of Counter-Proliferation Intelligence

Ofira Seliktar and Farhad Rezaei

LEXINGTON BOOKS

Lanham Boulder New York London

Published by Lexington Books

An imprint of The Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group, Inc.

4501 Forbes Boulevard, Suite 200, Lanham, Maryland 20706

www.rowman.com

Unit A, Whitacre Mews, 26-34 Stannary Street, London SE11 4AB

Copyright 2018 by The Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group, Inc.

All rights reserved . No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any electronic or mechanical means, including information storage and retrieval systems, without written permission from the publisher, except by a reviewer who may quote passages in a review.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Information Available

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Seliktar, Ofira, author. | Rezaei, Farhad, author.

Title: Iran, Israel, and the United states : the politics of counter-proliferation intelligence / Ofira Seliktar and Farhad Rezaei.

Description: Lanham, Maryland : Lexington Books, 2018. | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2018016861 (print) | LCCN 2018023017 (ebook) | ISBN 9781498569767 (electronic) | ISBN 9781498569750 (cloth : alk. paper)

Subjects: LCSH: Nuclear weaponsIran. | Nuclear weapons information. | Intelligence serviceIsrael. | Intelligence serviceUnited States. | Nuclear nonproliferation. | United StatesForeign relationsIsrael. | IsraelForeign relationsUnited States. | United StatesForeign relationsIran. | IranForeign relationsUnited States.

Classification: LCC U264.5.I7 (ebook) | LCC U264.5.I7 R49 2018 (print) | DDC 327.1/7470955dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018016861

Picture 2 The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information SciencesPermanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992.

Printed in the United States of America

Contents

ABC

Atieh Bahar Consulting

ACDA

Arms Control and Disarmament Agency

ACH

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

ADM

Archer Daniels Midland

AEOI

Atomic Energy Organization of Iran

AIC

American Iranian Council

AIPAC

American Israel Public Affairs Committee

AMAD

Sazman-e Tarahi-e Tajhizat-e Vizheh

APA

Acquisition Path Analysis

BOG

Board of Governors

CAP

Center for American Progress

CDI

Coalition for Democracy in Iran

CIA

Central Intelligence Agency

CIC

Counter-Intelligence Center

CNAPI

Campaign for a New American Policy on Iran

CNEA

Commission Nuclear Energy Argentina

CPC

Counter-Proliferation Center

CPD

Committee on Present Danger

CPI

Counter-Proliferation Initiative

CSP

Center for Security Policy

CUFI

Christians United for Israel

DCAP

Deterrence Concept Advisory Panel

DIQ

Design Information Questionnaire

DPPC

Damavand Plasma Physics Center

DPPRC

Damavand Plasma Physics Research Centre

ENACE

Empresa Nuclear Argentina de Centrales Electricas

ERI

Education Research Institute

EXPO

External Relations and Policy Coordination

FBI

Federal Bureau of Investigation

FDD

Foundation for the Defense of Democracies

FEDAT

Field of Expansion of Deployment of Advanced Technology

FEP

Fuel Enrichment Plant

HEU

Highly Enriched Uranium

HUMINT

Human Intelligence

IAEA

International Atomic Energy Agency

IAEC

Israel Atomic Energy Commission

IDC

Interdisciplinary Center

ILSA

Iran Libya Sanctions Act

INR

Intelligence and Research

INSSA

Institute for National Security Studies

INTC

Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center

IPC

Iran Policy Committee

ISI

Inter-Service Intelligence

ISIS

Institute for Science and International Security

ITDB

Incident and Trafficking Database

IVO

International Verification Organizations

JCPA

Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs

JCPOA

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

JMCNS

James Martin Center for Non-Proliferation Studies

JPA

Joint Plan of Action

JTGS

Joint Tactical Ground Station

LEU

Low Enriched Uranium

MAD

Mutual Assured Destruction

MAI

Moscow Aviation Institute

MEK

Mujahedeen-E-Khalq

MIT

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

MODAFL

Defense Armed Forces Logistics

MSSP

Member State Support Programs

MTCR

Missile Technology Control Regime

NCPC

National Counterproliferation Center

NCRI

National Council of Resistance of Iran

NCS

National Security Council

NCS

National Clandestine Service

NIA

National Intelligence Agencies

NIAC

National Iranian-American Council

NIE

National Intelligence Estimate

NIPP

National Institute for Public Policy

NNSA

National Assessment Group of the National Nuclear Security Administration

NPEC

Nonproliferation Policy Education Center

NPT

Non-Proliferation Treaty

NRO

National Reconnaissance Office

NSA

National Security Agency

NSG

Nuclear Suppliers Group

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