Samuel Charap - Everyone Loses - The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia

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First published January 2017 Routledge

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2017 The International Institute for Strategic Studies

DIRECTOR-GENERAL AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE Dr John Chipman

EDITOR Dr Nicholas Redman

EDITORIAL Alice Aveson, Jill Lally, Carolyn West

COVER/PRODUCTION John Buck, Kelly Verity

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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

ADELPHI series

ISSN 1944-5571

ADELPHI 460

ISBN 978-1-138-63308-7

Samuel Charap is Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, based in the Institutes Washington DC office. Prior to joining the Institute, Samuel served as Senior Advisor to the US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, and on the Secretary of States Policy Planning Staff.

Timothy J. Colton is Morris and Anna Feldberg Professor of Government and Russian Studies, Harvard University. He is a specialist on Russian and Eurasian politics and the author of Yeltsin: A Life (Basic Books, 2008), Russia: What Everyone Needs to Know (Oxford University Press, 2016) and other works. He is a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

We use conventional transliterations of Russian and Ukrainian proper names that commonly appear in English (e.g., Yuri, Yulia, Moscow, Yeltsin). Ukrainian surnames and place names are transliterated from Ukrainian (so Kyiv, not Kiev). Citations are transliterated using the British Standard/ Oxford Guide to Style system, with the exception of English-language references, which are not altered.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies has been a nurturing and collegial professional environment for one of us (Charap) during the course of the research and writing. His co-author (Colton) has benefited greatly from the support of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, both at Harvard University, and from the Institut fr die Wissenschaften vom Menschen, Vienna.

A number of colleagues in several countries were kind enough to read the draft and to supply thoughtful feedback: Steedman Hinckley, Sergei Karaganov, Ivan Krastev, Andrej Krickovic, Fyodor Lukyanov, Roderic Lyne, Neil MacFarlane, Michael McFaul, Alex Pravda, Mary Sarotte, Mikhail Troitskiy and Alexandra Vacroux, who was also a terrific organisational bulwark. The final product was greatly improved as a result, although, needless to say, responsibility for it is ours alone.

John Drennan of the IISS provided yeoman research assistance for the project from its early stages through the final throes. Without his sharp eye and unflappable determination, this book would not have been possible. IISS interns Valeria Bondareva and Tetyana Sydorenko also assisted with the research, under Johns supervision. Neil Buckley of the Financial Times generously shared unpublished reporting materials from his files. We are grateful to Nicholas Redman at the IISS for commissioning this as an Adelphi book, for his patience throughout, and for giving the draft manuscript a careful review. We warmly thank Alice Aveson for her thorough copy edit, John Buck and Kelly Verity for the design of the cover and the graphics, and Gaynor Roberts for managing the editorial process. The Working Group on the Future of USRussia Relations (supported by Carnegie Corporation of New York), while not directly involved with the book, supplied a discussion forum for many of the phenomena and ideas treated in Everyone Loses .

Finally, we are grateful to our spouses for tolerating a demanding writing schedule, particularly in the final months.