Martha Brill Olcott - Tajikistans Difficult Development Path

T ajikistans post-Soviet transition has not been easy. Shortly after independence, this landlocked and mountainous country plunged into a civil war that magnified the economic and political difficulties of building a viable state from the fragments of a unitary Soviet economy. Ever since, Tajikistan has teetered on the brink of failure.

The countrys struggles are brought into sharper relief as international forces prepare to withdraw from neighboring Afghanistan in 2014. Soon, the states of Central Asia will be faced with the burden of ensuring regional stability. Yet, Tajikistan has not yet proved it can overcome its challenges on the domestic front.

There is no one better equipped to illuminate the complex problems confronting Tajikistan than Martha Brill Olcott. Tajikistans Difficult Development Path is fully up to date, but it is the product of over two decades of research in the region. It provides a comprehensive overview of the countrys transition from communism to independence and of the challenges barring the road ahead.

Today, Tajikistans economy is dominated by inefficient state-owned enterprises. Its hierarchical political system is controlled by President Emomali Rahmon and his supporters, who also seek to manage media and religious activities in this traditionally Islamic society. A broad swath of the countrys population is struggling with unemployment, with up to a million of its 7 million inhabitants forced to travel abroad to find work. Many face frequent electricity shortages and deteriorating environmental conditions, and the quality of health care and education is often low. Tajikistans proximity to Afghanistan creates another set of problems, such as drug trafficking, that are compounded by unsecured borders and corruption.

Although the Tajik leadership has introduced some reforms, it has shown little commitment to economic liberalization or to fostering a participatory political system. Instead, it chooses to get by on promises of dramatic relief in the future from infrastructure projects like the construction of the Roghun hydroelectric station.

Tajikistan has accepted substantial foreign assistance from international organizations and bilateral donors since the end of its civil war in 1997, including the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and United Nations Development Program as well as the United States, the European Union, Switzerland, Japan, China, and Russia. However, donor-led efforts at reform have been hampered by inefficient dispersal of assistance and lack of political will.

In this timely and well-researched volume, Martha Brill Olcott traces the path of Tajikistans political, economic, and social development since independence. As Tajikistans Difficult Development Path makes clear, the countrys leadership faces an urgent choice between fully embracing reform or continuing on its current failed track with all the attendant negative consequences for Tajikistans citizens.

The choice the country makes will have very real implications for this troubled region. The countrys economic and political weaknesses threaten to be a serious liability not just for itself, but for all of its neighbors if the security situation in Afghanistan deteriorates following the U.S. withdrawal.

Jessica T. Mathews
President
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

T ajikistan, probably the most remote of all the former Soviet republics, has been a country at risk since achieving its independence twenty years ago. It is the poorest country in Central Asia, with an average per capita income of $780 in 2010, when it was ranked 183 of 213 countries by the World Bank.

This mountainous and landlocked country has a population of approximately 7.7 million.

Tajikistans first years of independence were marked by a four-sided civil war between two competing, regionally based elite groups from the Soviet-era Tajik Communist Party, a prodemocratic group, and Islamist elements. The unrest began in early September 1991, triggered by Tajik party leader and president Kakhar Makhkamovs public support for the failed Communist Party coup in Moscow just weeks earlier.

Makhkamovs predecessor, Rahmon Nabiyev (who had been removed by Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985 shortly after the latter took over as general secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union), aligned and mobilized his supporters with two other rising groups. One of these was an active prodemocracy movement that had been gaining support in Dushanbe, the nations capital, and the other was a group of charismatic Islamic leaders and their devout village followers (this group later became the Islamic Renaissance Party, the first religious party in Central Asia). Together, the three groups formed a powerful alliance and staged demonstrations to oust Makhkamov. The protests succeeded, and Makhkamov resigned and was replaced by Nabiyev in 1991. Yet Nabiyev, who came from the Khujand region in northern Tajikistanthe home of most of the republics Soviet era leadersquickly clashed with the leaders of the other two movements. In March 1992 demonstrations began against Nabiyev, mostly by citizens from Tajikistans southern regions, largely those from Kulyab, who were unhappy with seeing another northern ruler in power. In May 1992, fighting broke out in Dushanbe as Nabiyev attempted to break up these protests.

To ameliorate this situation, Nabiyev formed a new coalition government, but it quickly fell apart and in June 1992 fighting escalated. That September, Nabiyev resigned, and in November of that year the coalition that succeeded Nabiyev was ousted by supporters of Emomali Rahmon, who serves as Tajikistans current president.

Two main groups emerged from the various coalitions jousting for power: the Popular Front and the United Tajik Opposition (UTO). The Popular Front supported Rahmon, a former state farm chairman born in Dangara, a town in the Kulyab region, and whose support was drawn from that regions Communist Party elite. The UTO was made up of religious forces and some secular prodemocracy groups and was led by Said Abdullo Nuri.

Fighting remained intense through February and March 1993, during which period an estimated 50,000 to 100,000 people died.