J. Joseph Hewitt - Peace and Conflict 2012

J. Joseph Hewitt
Jonathan Wilkenfeld
Ted Robert Gurr
with Birger Heldt , Guest Editor

Center for International Development and Conflict Management
University of Maryland

Folke Bernadotte Academy
Stockholm, Sweden

First published 2010 by Paradigm Publishers

Published 2016 by Routledge
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Copyright 2012 University of Maryland

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Hewitt, J. Joseph.
Peace and conflict 2012 / J. Joseph Hewitt, Jonathan Wilkenfeld, and Ted
Robert Gurr.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-1-61205-089-8 (hardcover: alk. paper)
ISBN 978-1-61205-090-4 (paperback: alk. paper)
1. War. 2. Social conflict. 3. Violence. 4. Conflict management. 5. Self
determination, National. 6. Pacific settlement of international disputes. 7.
World politics2005-2015. 8. Democratization. 9. Terrorism. 10. Postwar
reconstruction. I. Wilkenfeld, Jonathan. II. Gurr, Ted Robert, 1936- III. Title.
JZ6385.H493 2009
303.6dc22

ISBN 978-1-61205-089-8 (hardcover: alk. paper)

ISBN 978-1-61205-090-4 (paperback: alk. paper)

A s we go to press, movements of historic proportions are sweeping parts of the Middle East and North Africa, with potentially far-ranging consequences for the region and indeed for the entire international system. Only in Tunisia and Egypt have there been clear-cut political changes, whereas the outcomes of the violent events in Libya, Bahrain, Syria, and Yemen are still undetermined. Other countries in the region, like Jordan and Morocco, have experienced public protests, but neither the protests nor the government responses have escalated or led to substantial political changes.

This wave of pro-democracy protests against autocratic rulers is the latest manifestation of a historically familiar but also rare phenomenon. The domino-like collapse of Communist Party rule in seven Eastern European states from 1989 to 1992, beginning with regime change in Poland, is the most recent analog. Other prominent examples can be found during the decolonization process after the Second World War (e.g., the collapse of the French colonial empire in South East Asia during the early 1950s and in sub-Saharan Africa in 1960). Episodes of violent protest within countries have similar dynamics, from expanding waves of riots against rising food prices in 18th century English villages to violent protests by the black, urban poor in US cities from 1964 to 1968. In such instances, one dramatic episode of political resistance provides a demonstration effect that inspires people with similar grievances elsewhere into action. Recent events illustrate just how topical research on diffusion has become in 2011.