J. Joseph Hewitt - Peace and Conflict 2008
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J. Joseph Hewitt
Joseph H. Campos II
Catherine Hewitt
Hewitt Paolo
Gabriella Hewitt
Kate Hewitt
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First published 2008 by Paradigm Publishers
Published 2016 by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14
52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14
52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
Copyright 2008 University of Maryland
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
ISBN 13 : 978-1-59451-400-5 (hbk)
ISBN 13 : 978-1-59451-401-2 (pbk)
ISBN 13 : 978-1-59451-401-2 (pbk)
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
CONTENTS
Ted Robert Gurr, J. Joseph Hewitt, and Jonathan Wilkenfeld
Regular Features
J. Joseph Hewitt
J. Joseph Hewitt
Amy Pate
David Quinn
Challenges to the Stability of States
Gary LaFree, Laura Dugan, and Susan Fahey
Victor Asal, Carter Johnson, and Jonathan Wilkenfeld
Jonathan Wilkenfeld
Paul Huth and Benjamin Valentino
Peter Wallensteen and Birger Heldt
In Focus
J. Joseph Hewitt
Major Armed Conflicts
A Note on the 2008 Publication
Peace and Conflict is the flagship publication of the Center for International Development and Conflict Management at the University of Maryland. Readers of this fourth volume in the series will note changes in authorship, approach, data resources, substantive scope, and mission. The first three volumes (2001, 2003, and 2005) were prepared and written by Monty G. Marshall and Ted Robert Gurr. Monty Marshall is now Director of Research, Center for Global Policy, School of Public Policy, George Mason University. Joseph Hewitt and Jonathan Wilkenfeld have joined Ted Robert Gurr in the preparation of the 2008 volume.
Beginning with this volume, all analyses will use sources that have been released to the public and are available for further analysis and replication. This publication continues coverage of several topics that appeared in earlier ones: the Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger, trends in global conflict, the spread of democracy, and self-determination movements and their outcomes. It also includes five chapters on a special theme: Challenges to the Stability of States.
The partnership between CIDCM and Paradigm Publishers will facilitate wider dissemination of Peace and Conflict to the academic and policy communities and provide the opportunity for students to understand, replicate, and extend our analyses. CIDCM will continue to make its findings available to the policy community; an executive summary can be found on the CIDCM Web site ().
This volume also introduces two new outlets for resources and research related to the contents of the book. The Peace and Conflict companion Web site features a suite of data analysis tools (www.cidcm.umd.edu/pc). Users will be able to explore data used for analyses reported in this issue by manipulating the data and making modifications to produce their own customized analyses. We are also launching the Web-based Peace and Conflict Working Paper Series which will feature article-length papers that expand on issues related to the contents of Peace and Conflict.
During the transition to this new format and approach, we have been guided by the advice of our newly appointed Editorial Board, chaired by Ted Robert Gurr, the founding author of the Peace and Conflict publications. These specialists provided careful reviews of each of the substantive chapters in this volume. In the future they will participate in biennial consultations and advise on the content and shape of future volumes. We are very grateful for their valuable contributions to this book. The members are identified at the end of this volume.
The modern age demands that we think in terms of human security... a concept that acknowledges the inherent linkages between economic and social development, respect for human rights, and peace.... Until we understand and act accordingly, we will not have either national or international security.
Mohamed ElBaradei, October 24, 2006
Sadat Lecture for Peace, University of Maryland
Sadat Lecture for Peace, University of Maryland
P revious editions of Peace and Conflict reported evidence of a sustained post-Cold War decline in armed conflicts within states and a growing capacity of states, acting singly and multilaterally, to avoid and end internal wars. This volume has no such clear story line. New evidence, and a closer look at old evidence, suggests that if there was a global movement toward peace in the 1990s and early years of the 21st century, it has stalled. Some positive trends are still evident but they are offset by new challenges. These challenges point to a conflict syndromea collection of factors that often operate concurrently to undermine the stability of states and erode the foundations of human security. Taken together, the essays in this volume explore aspects of these factors.
Has the magnitude of armed conflict declined? The answer is yes when judged by falling numbers of internal wars and their average death-tolls across the last 20 years. But when we tabulate the number of states engaged in armed conflicts, either their own or multilateral wars as in Iraq and Afghanistan, the long-run trend is up. A larger portion of the global community of states is involved now than in any other time in the past six decades (see ). And the historic low of 19 ongoing armed conflicts in 2004 was followed by an increase to 25 in 2005.
Are deadly conflicts more avoidable now than in the past? International crises, which in the past often led to armed conflict within and among states, have declined in number since the mid-1980s (see ). But overall new armed conflicts have been erupting at roughly the same pace for the past 60 years. Moreover, an unusually large number of new conflicts began in 200506, and some were born from the failure of past peace processes, as in Sri Lanka and Azerbaijan.
Has the third wave of democratization continued to rise? Full democracies have numbered about 80 since the mid-1990s (77 in 2006) compared with less than 40 autocratic regimes (34 in 2006). Democratic governance is the norm in the early 21st century but in recent years more regimes have edged into anocracya middling category of regimes with an incoherent mix of authoritarian and democratic features ().
Is state failure merely a local concern? While the global community is increasingly aware of the dreadful conditions facing the populations of unstable and failing states, Peace and Conflict carefully traces the dangerous propensity for these states to host domestic and international terrorist organizations (see ). As Mohamed ElBaradei (2006) has recently observed, we must acknowledge the inherent linkages between economic and social development, respect for human rights, and peace.
How is the international community responding to old and new conflict challenges? Since 2000, the number of active peacekeeping operations has been more than double the number at any point during the Cold War. They are about equally divided between UN operations and those by regional organizations. In one-fifth of all 126 missions undertaken since 1948 there was no peace to keep, and instead peacekeepers had to use force proactively. Success rates have been about equally good for UN and regional missions, and substantially higher than alleged by skeptics ().
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