Phillip B. Levine - Sex and consequences : abortion, public policy, and the economics of fertility

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SEX AND CONSEQUENCES

SEX AND CONSEQUENCES

ABORTION, PUBLIC POLICY, AND
THE ECONOMICS OF FERTILITY

Phillip B. Levine

PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS
PRINCETON AND OXFORD

COPYRIGHT 2004 BY PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS

PUBLISHED BY PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS, 41 WILLIAM STREET,

PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540

IN THE UNITED KINGDOM: PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS,

3 MARKET PLACE, WOODSTOCK, OXFORDSHIRE OX20 1SY

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA

LEVINE, PHILLIP B.

SEX AND CONSEQUENCES : ABORTION, PUBLIC POLICY, AND THE ECONOMICS

OF FERTILITY / PHILLIP B. LEVINE

P. CM.

INCLUDES BIBLIOGRAPHICAL REFERENCES AND INDEX.

ISBN: 978-0-691-13045-3

eISBN: 978-0-691-22164-9

1. ABORTIONGOVERNMENT POLICY. 2. ABORTIONLAW AND LEGISLATION.

3. FERTILITY, HUMANECONOMETRIC MODELS. I. TITLE.

HQ767.L48 2004

363.46DC22 2003060065

BRITISH LIBRARY CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA IS AVAILABLE.

WWW.PRESS.PRINCETON.EDU

R0

To Heidi

WITH LOVE

CONTENTS

ix

xiii

xv

xvii

CHAPTER ONE
Introduction 1

CHAPTER TWO
Abortion Law and Practice 9

CHAPTER THREE
Economic Models of Fertility and Abortion 39

CHAPTER FOUR
Methods for Evaluating the Impact of Policy Changes 65

CHAPTER FIVE
The Impact of Abortion Legalization 77

CHAPTER SIX
The Impact of Restrictions on Abortion Access 107

CHAPTER SEVEN
Abortion Policy in an International Perspective 133

CHAPTER EIGHT
Unfinished Business 158

CHAPTER NINE
Summary and Implications for Abortion Policy 186

FIGURES

TABLES

PREFACE

M Y INTEREST in abortion policy and its behavioral impact began somewhat inadvertently. A coauthor (David Zimmerman) and I were working on an unrelated project regarding the impact of maternal welfare receipt on childrens well-being. Over the course of that project we were worried about a potential statistical problem with our analysis. We were concerned that decisions regarding family size may be made in conjunction with the level at which parents are willing to invest in their children. Technically, we were concerned that family size is endogenous. A standard statistical solution to this problem is to predict family size based on some other factor (called an instrumental variable) that is unrelated to the childs outcome. We had thought that we could use state abortion policies as these instrumental variables. Without any particular knowledge of abortion policy or the literature examining it until that point, we assumed that more restrictive abortion policies would increase the number of unwanted births.

In the next step of the research process, I had my research assistant at the time (Amy Trainor) collect data on abortion policies across states through the late 1970s and 1980s and estimate the relationship between these policies and the birth rate. The results of this preliminary analysis provided no indication that states which enacted moderate restrictions on abortion access experienced an increase in the birth rate relative to other states that had no such change. The contrast between this result and my expectations led us to the initial conclusion that if births were unaffected, then perhaps these restrictions are not strong enough to have any impact on the abortion rate either. If not, then it would make sense that births would be unaffected. But subsequent preliminary analyses indicated that abortions did become less frequent when a restriction was imposed. Further investigation continued to provide the same qualitative results.

At that point it became clear that this question was no longer one about a statistical technique to be incorporated into another analysis, but an interesting and important question on its own. It became one of the main components of my research agenda for the next decade. I focused my attention on the discrepancy between the results that I had been expecting and those that I was obtaining. Was I thinking about the question in the right way? In particular, my prior expectations regarding the impact of abortion policy on fertility had little grounding in economic analysis. Further reflection in this regard suggested that perhaps the results I had been obtaining were consistent with the implications an economic model would provide.

At the time, I was on leave from Wellesley College and in residence at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in Cambridge. Doug Staiger was also on leave from his university and in residence at the NBER during the same time. Coincidentally, he was in a similar position regarding his analysis of abortion access and teen births, which he was conducting with Tom Kane. That year was very fruitful in developing my thinking on this topic and subsequent collaboration with Doug has helped to solidify it.

Based on reviews of the literature and my own subsequent research (much of which was coauthored), it became clear that the preliminary findings that I had initially found confusing could be supported by quite a bit of evidence. Moreover, minor extensions of standard economic models provided predictions that were consistent with these findings. Based on the weight of the evidence, my thinking about the impact of changes in abortion policy on individual behavior has changed. The results of this process are reflected in the contents of this book.

One question that I have been asked regarding my research in this area is whether or not I have received any funding and, if so, from whom. At one point, Doug Staiger and I did receive an award from the Kaiser Family Foundation to provide a literature review on the impact of abortion policy on fertility outcomes. Some of the material from that research has been incorporated into this book. I have also received some limited internal funding from Wellesley College to conduct research on this topic. Other than that, this research has been unfunded.

It is also important to recognize that this book has been written for a broader audience than just professional economists. As much as possible, I have attempted to review economists methods in as intuitive a manner as possible before they are used, to clarify all of the assumptions being made, to describe the strengths and weaknesses of those methods, and to define any jargon that is introduced. It should be accessible to social scientists in other disciplines, others interested in public policy, and students in economics classes.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I T GOES without saying that the undertaking of writing a book cannot be conducted without a great deal of assistance; I certainly have benefited tremendously from the input of others. First, I would like to thank my previous coauthors (Jon Gruber, Tom Kane, Doug Staiger, Amy Trainor, and David Zimmerman) on papers to which I have contributed that address the issue of abortion policy. They have each contributed greatly to my thinking on the topic. Although each of these individuals has been influential, I owe a special debt of gratitude to Doug Staiger, with whom I have worked the most in this area. During the course of the writing of this book, Doug has also been a useful sounding board for different ideas.

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