Jack A. Goldstone - Revolutions of the Late Twentieth Century

Edited By
Jack A. Goldstone
Ted Robert Gurr
Farrokh Moshiri

First published 1991 by Westview Press, Inc.

Published 2019 by Routledge
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Revolutions of the late twentieth century / edited by Jack A.
Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr, Farrokh Moshiri.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-8133-7597-5 ISBN 0-8133-1299-X (pbk.)
1. History, Modern1945- . 2. Revolutions. I. Goldstone, Jack A.
II. Gurr, Ted Robert, 1936 . III. Moshiri, Farrokh, 1961 .
D848.R48 1991
909.82dc20 91-17945
CIP

ISBN 13: 978-0-367-28601-9 (hbk)

This book, like most revolutions, was many years in the making. While at Northwestern University in 1984, two of the volumes editorsTed Robert Gurr and Farrokh Moshiriconceived the idea for a comparative study of recent revolutions. The plan was to design a common framework, based on extant academic theories of revolution, and to invite political scientists to apply it to cases with which they were closely familiar. Events of the 1980s amply confirmed our initial idea, derived from what we knew then of revolutions in Iran and Nicaragua, that both the theory and the practice of revolution had changed dramatically since the 1960s. We put the project aside until 1987, when Jack A. Goldstone, also at Northwestern University, became intrigued by the project and took the lead in implementing it.

We have avoided the temptation to let our pet theoretical assumptions or the specifics of the cases we knew best dictate the shape of this project. Instead, the theoretical and concluding chapters present and use a general framework that identifies key variables and combinations that appear significant in all contemporary revolutions. The framework, developed by Goldstone, evolved through a series of confrontations with the facts of particular cases and the interpretations of our contributors. It has proved flexible enough to guide the analysis of ten very diverse revolutions and rigorous enough that it can be used to make systematic comparisons across them.

One distinctive feature of the project, which we had in mind from the outset, is that we relied as much as possible on contributors who are native to the countries and regions in which the revolutions occurred, as we believed that nationals of revolutionary countries who are trained in Western social sciences are especially well suited for analysis that informs theory with cultural and political understanding. Eight of the ten case studies are by nationals, and in a number of instances, their contributions provide distinctive insights that reflect their firsthand knowledge.

The original plan also called for inclusion of several revolutions in progress, that is, ones in which a transfer of power to new leaders had not yet occurred. In our working outlines, Poland was included as an "aborted revolution," South Africa as potentially revolutionary. Events have dramatically changed the character of these revolutionary situations and amply justified our decision to include them. According to the same logic, this volume also includes a case study of the Palestinian intifada. We also note that the revolutions in Afghanistan, Cambodia, and Nicaragua have taken sharp and unexpected turns from the courses they were on in the mid-1980s. Observing our cases over the decade of this volumes preparation has brought home forcefully to us that "revolution" is not a neat analytic category of events with a finite beginning and end. At most, revolutions are climacterics in long, irregular processes of political conflict over who will hold power and for what purposes. Only in distant retrospect can one say that a particular revolution was decisive for a country's future.

The preparation of this volume was funded by a generous grant from the United States Institute of Peace. Most important, this grant provided the contributors an opportunity to present and discuss their interpretations of particular cases at a conference in September 1988, and we are grateful to the Overseas Development Council, and particularly to the council's vice president, Richard Feinberg, for hosting that conference. Of course, the opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this volume are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Institute of Peace or the Overseas Development Council.

The administration of this project was handled by the expert staff of Northwestern University's Center for Urban Affairs and Policy Research, to whom we are grateful. We also owe thanks to Kelli Jensenthe executive officer of the Center for Comparative Research in History, Society, and Culture at the University of California, Daviswho coordinated the authors' chapters, converted various texts and tables into a single uniform format, and assembled the final manuscript, and to Wava Haggardof the Sociology Department at the University of California, Daviswho assisted in the manuscript's preparation.

Far more than most edited volumes, this book was indeed a team effort. The authors of the various chapters had a chance to review each others' efforts at the 1988 conference, and they also critiqued the editors' introduction and conclusion. They were also extraordinarily gracious in responding to heavy editorial demands to maintain a tight focus on common issues and problems. The editors therefore thank these contributors, not only for their specific chapter contributions, but also for their less obvious, but no less important, contributions to the coherence and quality of this volume as a whole.

Jack A. Goldstone
Ted Robert Gurr
Farrokh Moshiri

JACK A. GOLDSTONE

Revolutions startle us with their unexpectedness and their impact. The sudden falls of the shah in Iran and Somoza in Nicaragua, the persistence of the Afghan resistance movement, and the bravery of the participants in the Polish Solidarity movement inspire wonder. The mass starvation in Cambodia, the brutal conflicts in South Africa, and violence in the Middle East inspire alarm. How capable are we of understanding, or of influencing, the causes and outcomes of these events?