Gul Akdag - Ethnicity and Elections in Turkey: Party Politics and the Mobilization of Swing Voters

Ethnicity and Elections in Turkey attempts to understand the mobilization strategies of incumbent parties to consolidate and increase their support among swing voters of an ethnic group. By analyzing the strategy of AKP on voters of Kurdish origin, it investigates the conditions under which it can mobilize them through the clientelistic network and its effectiveness in increasing support for the party.

This investigation is realized through a district and neighborhood level case study conducted in the districts of Beyolu, Sancaktepe and Beykoz in Istanbul. The main hypotheses are tested through five different steps. First, an examination of electoral results identifies a large number of voters of Kurdish origin as ideologically close to pro-Islamist and pro-Kurdish parties. Second, the book identifies the main organs responsible for mobilizing voters and defines the nature of the clientelistic network. Third, the study suggests that the incorporation of these voters into the partys clientelistic network is a function of the number and time of entry of activists of Kurdish origin in the partys ranks and the intensity of their contacts with the voters. Fourth, it reveals the effectiveness of clientelistic mobilization in consolidating and increasing support among swing voters of Kurdish origin. Last, the inner party organization and critical juncture experienced by the party are argued to be influential in its ability to increase its network through the incorporation of new activists.

Providing an alternative explanation of AKPs electoral success in Turkey, this book is essential reading for students and scholars with an interest in Middle East politics, political parties and political science.

Gl Arkan Akda holds a PhD from Sabanc University and is an Assistant Professor at the French Department of Political Science and International Relations at Yeditepe University. Her research interests include: political parties; political mobilization; voting behaviour; Turkish political life; electoral competition; ethnic politics; party/voter linkages; and clientelism.

Ethnicity and Elections in Turkey

Party Politics and the Mobilization of Swing Voters

Gl Arkan Akda

First published 2015
by Routledge
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and by Routledge
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2015 Gl Arkan Akda

The right of Gl Arkan Akda to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by her in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Akdag, Gul Arikan.
Ethnicity and elections in Turkey : party politics and the mobilization of swing voters / Gul Arikan Akdag.
pages cm. (Routledge studies in Middle Eastern politics ; 67)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Political participationTurkey. 2. Political partiesTurkey 3. Voting researchTurkey. 4. AK Parti (Turkey) 5. KurdsTurkeyPolitics and government. I. Title.
JQ1809.A15A43 2014
324.9561008991597dc23
2014009892

ISBN: 978-1-138-77484-1 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-315-77429-9 (ebk)

Typeset in Times New Roman
by Taylor & Francis Books

To My Husband and Son, Hakan and Utku Akda

This study is the product of my PhD dissertation at Sabanc University. I would like to address my deepest gratitude to my advisor Assist. Prof. zge Kemahlolu, co-advisers Prof. Ali arkolu and Prof. Izak Atiyaz who gave me insightful feedback throughout this process. It is through their guidance, advice, criticism, encouragement and insight throughout the research that I have been able to finalize this process. I would also like to thank the members of my jury for their suggestions and comments.

AKP Adalet ve Kalknma Partisi (Justice and Development Party)

ANAP Anavatan Partisi (Motherland Party)

BDP Barve Demokrasi Partisi (Peace and Democracy Party)

CHP Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (Republican Peoples Party)

DP Demokrasi Partisi (Democracy Party)

DTP Demokratik Toplum Partisi (Democratic Society Party)

DYP Doru Yol Partisi (True Path Party)

DEHAP Demokratik Halk Partisi (Democratic Peoples Party)

EU European Union

FP Fazilet Partisi (Virtue Party)

HADEP Halkn Demokrasi Partisi (Peoples Democracy Party)

HEP Halkn Emei Partisi (Peoples Labor Party)

PKK Partiya Karkern Kurdistan (Kurdish Workers Party)

RP Refah Partisi (Welfare Party)

SP Saadet Partisi (Felicity party)

TIP Trkiye i Partisi (Turkish Worker Party)

TUIK Trkiye statistik Kurumu (Turkish Statistical Institute)

YSK Yksek Sein Kurulu (High Electoral Board)

YTP Yeni Trkiye Partisi (New Turkey Party)

The 12 June 2011 general elections in Turkey resulted with the electoral victory of AKP, which increased its votes and gained the right to form the government for the third time. The results of the elections are indicative of two important trends in the Turkish party system. First, the three consecutive success of AKP at the ballot box sustains a transition towards a predominant party system in Turkey. Second, the increasing vote shares of the pro-Kurdish party vis--vis AKP among citizens of Kurdish origin indicate the rising importance of the ethnic dimension within the system. The combination of these two developments makes the study of mobilization strategies used by a predominant party in order to increase its support among potential swing members of an ethnic group particularly interesting, especially in the Turkish context where a considerable number of voters of Kurdish origin support AKP.

The rise in the support for pro-Kurdish parties and the nature of the electoral competition between AKP and BDP has been evaluated through the ideological positioning of each party. The changing position of AKP on the Kurdish issue has been suggested as the major cause in diverging support for AKP among citizens of Kurdish origin. Indeed, an important characteristic that differentiates the 2011 general elections period from its precedents has been the harsh U-turn of AKPs position concerning the Kurdish issue. Rising PKK attacks, an increasing number of arrested Kurdish political elites under judiciary operations and, finally, Erdoans declaration that there is no Kurdish problem in Turkey but Kurds have a problem during the electoral campaigning period contributed to the rising polarization in both the south east region of Turkey and in the big cities in the west, where large numbers of Kurdish citizens reside. In electoral terms, the result of this positional change has been the decrease in AKPs vote shares among citizens of Kurdish origin in favor of the pro-Kurdish party BDP. Both provincial and sub-provincial aggregate data on the 2007 and 2011 general elections in the south east Region of Turkey, as well as big cities in the western part of the country, where considerable numbers of Kurdish citizens reside, support this trend. However, a more detailed micro-level analysis of the electoral outcomes across elections indicates fluctuations. One can observe the increase in support for AKP from the elections of 2009 to 2011 in some geographical subunits which is difficult to explain through the programmatic linkage given the anti-Kurdish discourse of AKP in the 2011 general elections.