Gary C. Jacobson - The Politics of Congressional Elections

NINTH EDITION

Gary C. Jacobson

University of California - San Diego

Jamie L. Carson

University of Georgia

ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Jacobson, Gary C.

The politics of congressional elections / Gary C. Jacobson, University of California, San Diego, Jamie L. Carson, University of Georgia.

pages cm

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-1-4422-5261-5 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN 978-1-4422-5262-2 (pbk. : alk. paper) ISBN 978-1-4422-5263-9 (electronic) 1. United States. CongressElections. I. Title.

JK1976.J27 2015

324.973dc23

2015034700

The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information SciencesPermanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992.

Printed in the United States of America

For Marty and Karen For Tammy

2.1a Registration and Party Control of California House Seats, 19922000

2.1b Registration and Party Control of California House Seats, 20022010

2.1c Registration and Party Control of California House Seats, 20122014

2.2 District Partisan Advantage, 19522014

2.3 Winning against the Partisan Grain, by Decade

3.1 Success Rates of House and Senate Incumbents Seeking Reelection, 19462014

3.2 Average Percentage of the Major-Party Vote Won by House Incumbents in Contested Elections, 18402014

3.3 Incumbency Advantage in House Elections, 19462014

3.4 House Candidates Receiving More Than 60 Percent of the Major-Party Vote, 18402014

3.5 Percentage of Incumbents Facing Quality Challengers, 18402014

3.6 Campaign Spending by Challengers, by District Partisan Leanings

3.7 Average Campaign Spending in House Elections, 19722014

3.8 Challengers Expenditures and Victories in House Elections, 19722014

3.9 Winning House Challengers, by Level of Campaign Spending, 19722014

4.1 Political Action Committees, 19742014

4.2 Contributions by Political Action Committees, 19742014

4.3 Hard and Soft Money Raised by House Campaign Committees, 19882014

4.4 Hard and Soft Money Raised by Senate Campaign Committees, 19882014

4.5 House Party Committee Campaign Activity, 19902014

4.6 Senate Party Committee Campaign Activity, 19902014

4.7 House District Competitiveness and Campaign Spending, 2012

4.8 House District Competitiveness and Campaign Spending, 2014

4.9 State Competitiveness and Senate Campaign Spending, 2012

4.10 State Competitiveness and Senate Campaign Spending, 2014

4.11 Contributions of Members Campaign Committees and PACs to House and Senate Candidates, 19782012

4.12 House and Senate Members Contributions to Other Candidates Campaigns, 19902012

4.13 House and Senate Members Contributions to Congressional Campaign Committees, 19902012

4.14 Ideology of Winning and Losing House Candidates, 19802012

4.15 Ideology of Winning and Losing Senate Candidates, 19802012

4.16 Independent Spending by Nonparty Groups, 20062014

4.17 Candidate Emergence Patterns in U.S. House Primary Races, 20002014

5.1 Voter Turnout in Presidential and Midterm Election Years, 19322014

5.2 Average Party Identification, All Respondents and Voters, by Decade

5.3 Party Loyalty in Contested House and Senate Elections, 19522014

5.4 Partisanship and Voting in House Elections, 20042012

5.5 Correlations between Party Identification, Ideology, and Issue Positions for House Voters, 19722012

5.6 Partisan Voters Defecting to Incumbents and Challengers in House Elections, 19562014

5.7 Partisan Voters Defecting to Incumbents and Challengers in Senate Elections, 19522014

5.8 Candidate Name Recognition and Party Loyalty in House Elections, 19782012

5.9 Approval of House Incumbents and Defection Rates of Challenger Partisans, 19802012

5.10 Campaign Spending, Name Recognition, and Media Contact with Candidates, 19722014

5.11 House Incumbents Performance on Keeping in Touch, 19862012

5.12 Effects of Positions on Issues and Roll Calls, Party Identification, and Incumbency on the 2014 House Vote

5.13 Effects of Positions on Issues and Roll Calls, Party Identification, and Incumbency on the 2014 Senate Vote

6.1 House Margins, 18662014

6.2 Senate Margins, 18662014

6.3 Proportion of Districts with Split Results in Presidential and House Elections, 19202012

6.4 Correlations between District-Level House and Senate and Presidential Voting, 19522012

6.5 Ticket Splitting in National Elections, 19522012

6.6 Partisan Defections to House Candidates, by Presidential Loyalty, 19522012

6.7 Partisan Defections to Senate Candidates, by Presidential Loyalty, 19522012

6.8 The Quality of Challengers and Party Fortunes in House Elections, 19462014

6.9 Is Your Vote for Congress a Vote for or against\the President?

6.10 Consistency of Presidential Approval with the House Vote in Midterm Elections, 19742014

6.11 Correlation between Prior Presidential Vote and the Midterm Vote across House Districts and States, 19542014

6.12 Ticket Splitting by Republican Presidential Voters in the Southern Senate Elections, 19522012

6.13 States Won by Same Party in Senate and Presidential Elections, 19522012

6.14 Senate Seats Held by Party Winning the State in the Most Recent Presidential Election

6.15 The 2012 Presidential Vote and 2014 Senate Vote

7.1a Mondales District Vote Share and House DW-Nominate Scores, 99th Congress (19851986)

7.1b Obamas District Vote Share and House DW-Nominate Scores, 113th Congress (20132014)

7.2a Mondales State Vote Share and Senate DW-Nominate Scores, 99th Congress (19851986)

7.2b Obamas District Vote Share and Senate DW-Nominate Scores, 113th Congress (20132014)

7.3 House Party Unity, Eisenhower through Obama Administrations

7.4 Senate Party Unity, Eisenhower through Obama Administrations

7.5 Ideological Positions of House Party Coalitions, 80th through 113th Congresses

7.6 Ideological Positions of Senate Party Coalitions, 80th through 113th Congresses

7.7 Ideological Differences between the Congressional Parties, 46th through 113th Congresses

7.8 Presidential Support in the House of Representatives, 83rd through 113th Congresses