Bernard K. Gordon - Americas Trade Follies

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Americas Trade Follies

America is the powerhouse of the world economy, but will it continue to be in the era of globalization? Today, foreign policy, trade and jobs are closely connected. Thirty-five million American jobs depend just on exports more than in Europe and Asia. The US has been a leader in opening up the world of trade, but now, Bernard K. Gordon argues, it has taken a wrong turn that threatens to close down the world trading system itself. He warns that the danger is Americas love affair with regionalism: if it isnt stopped, Asia will respond with its own regional bloc, and the world will be on the road to disaster...

Americas Trade Follies controversially challenges the myth of Americas trade deficits and shows its consequences for current trade policy. The book argues that the global political economy is hardening into regional blocs, in North America, Latin America, Europe and the Asia Pacific, each organized around a powerful economic base and mutually suspicious of one another. Bernard K. Gordons masterful analysis shows that this division into regional blocs fundamentally threatens American prosperity by limiting US access to the worlds richest and largest markets, and endangers US security by dividing the globe along economic and political lines. It is vital, he argues, that US trade policy recognizes that support for regional trade blocs is an act of political folly in our globalized economy.

Combining foreign trade and world politics, this book looks at issues of US trade and strategy in Europe, East Asia and the West particularly USSouth America relations. Provocative, original and stimulating, this book is essential reading for all those interested in American politics, trade and international political economy.

In articles in Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs and The National Interest, BernardK. Gordon first showed that America is the worlds only truly global exporter; no single region is Americas Natural Market. Now, uniquely combining economics and politics, this 30-year member of the International Institute of Strategic Studies warns that Americas flirtation with regional blocs is both foolish for America and dangerous for the world.

To Pam and Josh, and Eve and Daniel

This reflects some of our travels

Americas Trade Follies

Turning economic leadership into strategic weakness

Bernard K. Gordon

London and New York

First published 2001 by Routledge
11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE

Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada
by Routledge
29 West 35th Street, New York, NY 10001

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group

This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2001.

2001 Bernard K. Gordon

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Gordon, Bernard K., 1932
Americas trade follies : turning economic leadership into strategic weakness / Bernard K. Gordon.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Trade blocs. 2. Regionalism. 3. Balance of tradeUnited States. 4. United StatesCommercial policy. I. Title.

HF1418.7 .G67 2001
382'.0973dc21
00-054743

ISBN 0-415-23272-4 (Hbk)
ISBN 0-415-25320-9 (Pbk)
ISBN 0-203-18320-7 Master e-book ISBN
ISBN 0-203-18395-9 (Glassbook Format)

Figures

Value of world exports, 196098

Foreign trade as a percentage of GDP, 1999

Exports as percentage of GDP, 1999, worlds top ten exporters

Comparative rates of export growth, 198796

100 years of US exports, as percentage share of world market

World export shares, 1990

World export shares, 1996

The dollar value of Americas trade deficits, 197197

The rise and fall of Americas merchandise trade deficit as a percentage of US total trade, 197797

The trade deficit, as percentage of GDP, 197797

Percentage increases in Americas trade deficits with major partners, 19939

Americas trade deficit with Japan, as a percentage of their bilateral trade, 198699

Intra-EC imports, as percentage of total EC imports, 196897

Who supplies the EC, 196897

Americas share of foreign investment and foreign trade in France, Germany, and Britain, 1996

Japans trading partners, 1997

Imports from the US in 1998 in Australia, Brazil, Singapore and Korea

US export markets, 1996

One-year (19956) growth rates (%) for imports from the USA

20-year (197898) growth rates (%) for imports from the USA

Global shares of US exports, 1999

Brazil and Argentine imports from EU and USA, 196898

Brazil and Argentine exports to the EU and USA, 198298

Sources of foreign investment (stock) in Brazil, 1976

Foreign investment in Latin America, 1914

Cuba and Mexico dominate US investments in Latin America, 1929

Sources of foreign investment in Mexico, 1996

US investment in Venezuela, 192998, as percentage of US global investment

Percentage share of European and US investment (stock) in Brazil and Argentina, 197695

US investment (stock) in South America, 192998, as percentage of total US FDI

Directions of US direct investment, 1998

Value of US investment, compared to total foreign investment in South America, 198098

Growth of Northeast Asias imports, 19904

Growth rate of Pacific Basin imports, 19904

Growth rate of ASEANs imports, 19904

EU export markets, 1998

Japans export markets, 1998

US export markets, 1998

US exports to AsiaPacific as percentage of US total exports, 198099

Total investment stock of Japan and US in Asia (through 1998)

Comparing Asias imports from USA and Japan, 1998

US and Japanese imports from AsiaPacific nations 196898

Acknowledgments

Because this book somewhat uniquely combines issues of politics and economics, it has been a special task requiring several years, and my debts are many. At the University of New Hampshire, they include librarians Debbie Watson, Linda B. Johnson, Kathy Foss, and Meredith Ricker, and their truly outstanding Library Collections. Without their help this book simply could not have been written, and that applies also to GEN. Richard Chilcoat and Jeannemarie Faison, for their help in arranging my access to the Library of the National Defense University in Washington, D.C. A word of personal thanks is due to my good friend Tom Fitzgerald, for his encouragement, and no words can ever approach my gratitude, not least for her confidence, to my wife, Anita.

Abbreviations and acronyms

AFTA ASEAN Free Trade Area, agreed to in 1992

AMF Asian Monetary Fund, proposed in 1997

APEC AsiaPacific Economic Cooperation, the group of nations (now 21) that convened in 1989 to improve their economic cooperation

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