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Aryeh Shalev - The Intifada: Causes and Effects

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Aryeh Shalev The Intifada: Causes and Effects
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First published 1991 by Westview Press
Published 2019 by Routledge
52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
Copyright 1991 Tel Aviv University
Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe
ISBN 13: 978-0-367-29322-2 (hbk)
The Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies (JCSS)
The Center for Strategic Studies was established at Tel Aviv University at the end of 1977. In 1983 it was named the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in honor of Mr. and Mrs. Mel Jaffee. The objective of the Center is to contribute to the expansion of knowledge on strategic subjects and to promote public understanding of and pluralistic thought on matters of national and international security.
The Center relates to the concept of strategy in its broadest meaning, namely, the complex of processes involved in the identification, mobilization and application of resources in peace and war, in order to solidify and strengthen national and international security.
International Board of Trustees
Chairman : Melvin Jaffee
Immediate Past Chairman : Joseph H. Strelitz (deceased)
Robert H. Amow, Arnold Y. Aronoff, Newton D. Becker, Jack Berlin, Henry Borenstein, Edgar M. Bronfman, Simon Chilewich, Bertram J. Cohn, Stewart M. Colton, Lester Crown, Joseph K. Eichenbaum, Danielle and Shimon Erem, Allan Fainbarg, Dr. Gerald Falwell, Jacob Feldman, Arnold D. Feuerstein, David Furman, Guilford Glazer, Burton E. Glazov, Eugene M. Grant, Vernon Green, Martin J. Gross, Michael M.H. Gross, Irving B. Harris, Betty and Sol Jaffee, Philip M. Klutznick, Judy and Joel Knapp, Fred Kotek, Raymond Kulek, Max L. Kunianski, Mark Lambert, Rose Lederer, Fred W. Lessing, Morris L. Levinson, Edward Levy, Peter A. Magowan, Judd D. Malkin, Hermann Merkin, Stephen Meadow, Monte MonAster, Max Perlman, Milton J. Petrie, Gary P. Ratner, Raphael Recanati, Meshulam Riklis, Morris Rodman, Elihu Rose, Malcolm M. Rosenberg, Irving Schneider, George Shrut, Marvin Simon, Ruth Sinaiko, Walter P. Stern, Dr. Robert J. Stoller, Leonard R. Strelitz, James Warren, David Warsaw, Jack D. Weiler, Marvin A. Weiss, Emanuel A. Winston, Bert Wolstein, Paul Yanowicz
Contents
Appendix 1 (table)
Disturbances in Judea-Samaria and Gaza, 19671987
Appendix 2 (table)
Violent incidents in Judea-Samaria and Gaza during the intifada
Appendix 3 (table)
Israeli casualties in Judea-Samaria and Gaza during the intifada
Appendix 4 (table)
Palestinian casualties in Judea-Samaria and Gaza during the intifada
Appendix 5
Leaflet no. 9 issued by the UNL of the Popular Uprising
Appendix 6
Leaflet no. 28 The Call of Independence
Appendix 7 (table)
Number of incidents in Jerusalem Area monthly from December 1987 to March 1989
Appendix 8 (table)
Number of incidents of arson in Judea-Samaria and Gaza
Appendix 9 (table)
Number of houses demolished or sealed in Judea-Samaria and Gaza from December 1987 to May 1989
Appendix 10 (table)
Petrol bombs thrown in Judea-Samaria and Gaza from December 1987 to June 21, 1989
Appendix 11 (table)
Palestinians exiled from Judea-Samaria and Gaza, from December 1987 to June 21, 1989
Appendix 12
The Mubarak Plan
Appendix 13
The Shultz Initiative
Appendix 14
The PNC Declaration of Independence of Palestine
Appendix 15
PNC Political Statement Calls for Settlement of Arab-Israel Conflict, International Conference
Appendix 16
Excerpts from Remarks made by Salah Khalaf at a Closed Meeting of the Palestinian National Council
Appendix 17
Arafats Statement at Press Conference in Geneva
Appendix 18
Shultz Says US Prepared for Dialogue with PLO
Appendix 19
The Israeli Government Peace Initiative
Tables
Table 1
Numbers of Palestinians in the Territories under detention during the first year and a half of the intifada
Table2
Comparative data regarding numbers of terrorist acts and petrol bomb incidents in Jerusalem in 1986, 1987,and 1988
Table3
Effect of house demolitions on scope of violent incidents during following month
Table4
Effect of deportations on scope of violent incidents during following month
Table5
Incidents in Judea-Samaria when schools were open/closed
Table6
Violent incidents and casualties in Judea-Samaria and Gaza: 1988-1990
  1. iii
Guide
The uprising is a war being waged by the Palestinians against Israel for control and rule in Judea, Samaria and Gaza. The war is being prosecuted not only by the hard core of youthful activists; this is a broad popular war being fought against Israeli rule by virtually the entire population of the Territories. The beginning of the uprising took both Israel and the PLO by surprise. It is being centrally directed and it can be regarded as the Palestinians war of independence against Israel.
The interaction of basic conditions that worsened over time, together with circumstantial factors, triggered the violence of December 1987. Of the basic elements, the most important was the Palestinians national desire to divest themselves of Israeli rule, and the knowledge that external forces (the PLO, Jordan, other Arab states) will not solve the problem for them. A second motivating factor was the harsh living conditions in the Gaza Strip refugee camps, affecting a considerable proportion of the population in that region. To this must be added the organizational infrastructure created by the Palestinians in the preceding years and greatly expanded since the late 1970s; it was the driving force of the uprising. Once these basic elements had ripened, the rioting was sparked by a series of immediate or circumstantial causes. In terms of the basic factors, the uprising could have erupted a few months before December 9, 1987, or a few months later.
The riots that broke out on December 9, 1987 spread rapidly, became increasingly violent, and within days had become a full-fledged uprising. The Palestinians success was made possible by a number of Israeli mistakes, in part strategic and in part tactical. One was the very fact that the Israeli authorities were surprised that a popular uprising could erupt, and their confidence that the IDF could quell it using the means and methods that had been applied in past disturbances. Another was the failure to designate one single body as responsible for providing a general and national appraisal of trends and developments in the Territories. Yet another mistake was the failure to bring significant reinforcements into the Territories during the first two weeks of the rioting, a move that was obligatory, even on the basis of past experience (let alone in the case of a mass uprising). Finally, initial oscillations in operative policy regarding manifestations of civil disobedience allowed the uprising to develop.
The central strategic long-term goal of the uprising is to put an end to Israeli rule and establish a Palestinian state. Aware, however, that this is not feasible in the immediate future, the Palestinians have set short- and intermediate-term objectives aimed at accumulating points by preserving the momentum of the struggle and setting up a self-rule system in the Territories, thus progressing by stages toward the strategic goal.
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