T he future of the Taiwan Strait is more wide open than at any other time in recent decades. Tensions between China and Taiwan have eased since 2008. But the movement toward full rapprochement remains fragile. Whether the two sides of the Strait can sustain and expand a cooperative relationship after years of mutual distrust and fear is still uncertain.
The waters of the Strait are uncharted, and each side worries about shoals beneath the surface. The current engagement between Beijing and Taipei may make possible a solution to their six-decade-long dispute. Whether, when, and how that might happen is, however, shrouded in doubt. China fears the island's permanent separation, by way of either an overt move to de jure independence or continued refusal to unify with the mainland. Taiwan fears subordination to an authoritarian regime that does not have Taipei's interests at heart. And the United States worries about the stability of the East Asian region.
Richard Bush, who studied issues surrounding Taiwan during almost twenty years in the U.S. government, explains the current state of relations between China and Taiwan, providing the details of what led to the current situation. And he extrapolates on the likely future of cross-Strait relations. Bush also discusses America's stake, analyzing possible ramifications for U.S. interests in the critically important East Asia region and recommends steps to protect those interests.
At the heart of the [Taiwan conundrum] is a question of definition. Does the dispute stem from the protracted division of the Chinese state after World War II, or does the Republic of China on Taiwan in some sense constitute a successor state of the old Republic of China (ROC), one on a par with the People's Republic of China on the Chinese mainland? Whether and how the unification of the two entities might occur hinges on the answer. Indeed, I have argued that the core of the dispute between the two sides has been their disagreement over whether the Republic of Chinaor Taiwanis a sovereign entity for purposes of cross-Strait relations. It follows that if unification is a real option, the two sides must form a political union that bridges the disagreement over the island's legal status. Is that possible?
from the Introduction
RICHARD C. BUSH holds the Michael H. Armacost Chair at the Brookings Institution, where he directs the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies. He served as chairman and managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan, 19972002. His previous books include The Perils of Proximity: China-Japan Security Relations and Untying the Knot: Making Peace in the Taiwan Strait, both published by Brookings.
Jacket design and cover illustration by Claude Goodwin
UNCHARTED STRAIT
The Future of China-Taiwan Relations
RICHARD C. BUSH
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS
Washington, D.C.
Copyright 2013
THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
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www.brookings.edu
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Brookings Institution Press.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data
Bush, Richard C., 1947-
Uncharted strait : the future of China-Taiwan relations / Richard C. Bush.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Summary: Focuses on cross-Strait relations during Ma Ying-jeou's first term, assessing the impact of stabilization on economics, politics, and security and the implications for resolution of Taiwan and China's fundamental dispute. Examines how Taiwan can strengthen itself; how China can promote a mutually acceptable outcome; and how Washington can protect its interests in South Asia--Provided by publisher.
ISBN 978-0-8157-2384-4 (hardcover : alk. paper)
1. Taiwan--Relations--China. 2. China--Relations--Taiwan. I. Title.
DS799.63.C6B86 2013
327.51051249--dc23 2012045085
2 4 6 8 9 7 5 3 1
Printed on acid-free paper
Typeset in Minion
Composition by Oakland Street Publishing
Arlington, Virginia
Printed by R. R. Donnelley
Harrisonburg, Virginia
For my grandchildren
SEBASTIAN BUSH
MACALLISTER CAL KOLLET
VIVIAN BUSH
Acknowledgments
A s I put the final touches on Uncharted Strait, I was reminded once again of how much a solitary author depends on the generous assistance of others. In my case, that help has come in many different forms, and I am grateful for it all.
The first objects of my gratitude are those who provided the financial support for this project: the Smith Richardson Foundation; the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation Foundation; the Government of Norway; and an anonymous donor. Each has supported me in the past and I am pleased that they have done so again.
I could not have asked for a better intellectual home than the Brookings Institution. Strobe Talbott and Martin Indyk have been unstinting in their encouragement of my work, as have the staff of the Foreign Policy program. My own staffKevin Scott, Jennifer Mason, and Aileen Changhave assumed much of the responsibility for managing of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, which frees me to do my scholarly work. In addition, Jennifer again served admirably as my research assistant, saving me much time and correcting a great number of mistakes. My colleagues in Brookings's Foreign Policy program have been consistently supportive, and none more so than those in the John L. Thornton China Center: Ken Lieberthal, Jeff Bader, Cheng Li, Jonathan Pollack, and Erica Downs. Cheng kindly clarified bits of Chinese language that I did not understand. Michael O'Hanlon offered a number of helpful comments. The Brookings Pressand especially my editor, Eileen Hugheswas instrumental in turning a rough manuscript into a presentable book.
Outside of Brookings, countless friends have been generous in their support. Most broadly, I have always benefited from the stimulating intellectual exchange that takes place among China and Taiwan specialists, whether in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, or Europe. At the risk of drawing invidious distinctions, there are specific individuals whose help I cannot but acknowledge. Tom Christensen of Princeton and Steve Goldstein each reviewed the manuscript and made a number of valuable suggestions. Alan Romberg, Shelley Rigger, Robert Sutter, Su Chi, Ho Szu-yin, Chu Yun-han, and Lin Bih-jaw have been a constant and multifaceted source of guidance. Larry Diamond, Jacques deLisle, and Jean-Pierre Cabestan gave me opportunities to field test some of the ideas that I have incorporated into this book. Phillip Saunders, Dafydd Fell, Gary and Ming-yeh Rawnsley, Lin Zhengyi, Chang Ya-chung, and Sun Zhe were helpful in specific and important ways. Several scholars in China were generous with their time when I made visits to China in April 2011. The faculty and staff of the Department of Politics and Administration of the University of Hong Kongparticularly John Burns and Richard Huprovided an ideal setting for my work when I was in residence in January and April 2011. All of these friends, colleagues, and institutions have helped me make Uncharted Strait a better book. I alone am responsible for the errors that inevitably but regrettably remain.
