Joseph Rotblat - Nuclear Weapons: The Road to Zero

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Nuclear Weapons

A Pugwash Monograph

Nuclear Weapons

The Road to Zero

EDITED BY
Joseph Rotblat
1995 Nobel Laureate for Peace

EXECUTIVE EDITOR
Frank Blackaby

First published 1998 by Westview Press, Inc.

Published 2021 by Routledge
605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

Copyright 1998 by Westview Press, A Division of HarperCollins Publishers, Inc.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

A CIP catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.
ISBN 0-8133-3517-5

ISBN 13: 978-0-3670-1051-5 (hbk)
ISBN 13: 978-0-3671-6038-8 (pbk)

DOI: 10.4324/9780429040375

Contents

, Frank Blackaby

PART ONE A Nuclear-Weapon-Free World

1 The Anatomy of the Argument, Michael MccGwire

2 The Phased Elimination of Nuclear Weapons, Cathleen Fisher

3 Verifying Nuclear Disarmament, Steve Fetter

4 Societal Verification, Frank Blackaby

5 Reducing the Threat of Nuclear Theft, John P.Holdren and Matthew Bunn

6 Breakout from a Nuclear Weapons Convention, Tom Milne and Joseph Rotblat

PART TWO The Road to Zero: Progress and Regress

7 Progress in Nuclear Weapons Reductions, Thomas B. Cochran, Robert S. Norris and Christopher E. Paine

8 Ballistic Missile Defence: Enduring Questions, John Pike

9 Nuclear Weapon Development Without Nuclear Testing?, Richard L. Garwin and Vadim A. Simonenko

10 Western Nuclear Doctrine: Changes and Influences, Daniel Plesch

11 Russian Nuclear Disarmament Dilemmas, Alexander Nikitin

12 Prospects for Further Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament Treaties, Rebecca Johnson

13 Nuclear Disarmament: Closing the Gaps, Jan Prawitz

1. PART ONE A Nuclear-Weapon-Free World
   1. 1 The Anatomy of the Argument
   2. 2 The Phased Elimination of Nuclear Weapons
   3. 3 Verifying Nuclear Disarmament
   4. 4 Societal Verification
   5. 5 Reducing the Threat of Nuclear Theft
   6. 6 Breakout from a Nuclear Weapons Convention
2. PART TWO The Road to Zero: Progress and Regress
   1. 7 Progress in Nuclear Weapons Reductions
   2. 8 Ballistic Missile Defence: Enduring Questions
   3. 9 Nuclear Weapon Development Without Nuclear Testing?
   4. 10 Western Nuclear Doctrine: Changes and Influences
   5. 11 Russian Nuclear Disarmament Dilemmas
   6. 12 Prospects for Further Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament Treaties
   7. 13 Nuclear Disarmament: Closing the Gaps

1. ii

Guide

The Pugwash Monograph A Nuclear-Weapon-Free World: Desirable? Feasible? edited by Joseph Rotblat, Jack Steinberger and Bhalchandra Udgaonkar, published in 1993, was the outcome of a comprehensive study carried out by Pugwash on the need to eliminate nuclear weapons, and on the ways to achieve this. The book has since been translated into seven languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, Japanese, Russian, Spanish and Swedish. In 1995 (after the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to Pugwash) the book was published by Westview Press in a paperback edition.

The publication of the Pugwash Monograph can be seen as the start of serious studies on the concept of a nuclear-weapon-free world. These include several reports from the Henry L. Stimson Center in the United States, the INESAP group in Germany, the International Association of Lawyers Against Nuclear Arms, and the Committee on International Security and Arms Control (CISAC) of the US National Academy of Sciences. As a direct outcome of the Pugwash Monograph, the Australian Government set up the Canberra Commission. The Report of the Commission, published in 1996, is a powerful exposition of the urgent need to rid the world of nuclear weapons.

In addition to these studies there have been important pronouncements, both by individuals - high ranking military and political leaders - and by groups. These include the statement from the International Generals and Admirals, 60 of them from 17 countries, and the clear opinion from the International Court of Justice on the obligation of the nuclear powers to proceed to nuclear disarmament. The result of ail this is that the notion of a nuclear-weapon-free world is no longer the fanciful dream of a fringe group, but a sound and practical objective, which could be realized in the foreseeable future.

There is also a growing mass movement centred around the "Abolition 2000" network.

Despite all this, the basic policy of the nuclear weapon states (or at least four of them) remains unaltered: nuclear weapons are needed for their security.

While the present situation can be described as a stalemate, there have been a number of events since 1993, some marking progress towards an NWFW but others moving away from the goal. On the positive side, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is now practically universal, leaving the three threshold states, India, Pakistan, and Israel, as notorious exceptions. On the other hand, the indefinite extension of the NPT in 1995 is viewed by some in the nuclear weapon states as a licence for the indefinite retention of nuclear weapons.

The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, though not yet in force, has been adopted by a very large number of states, including all five nuclear powers, and it seems very unlikely that any of these will resume testing. On the other hand, the USA is carrying out sub-critical testing, apparently allowed under the CTBT, but causing unease to many other parties to the Treaty. The US stewardship programme provides for nuclear weapon "modernization," which is difficult to distinguish from new weapon development.

In the bilateral negotiations on the reduction of nuclear arsenals some progress has been made at the summit meeting between Presidents Clinton and Yeltsin in Helsinki, March 1997 - a further stage of dismantlement of strategic weapons in START III is planned. On the other hand, START II has not yet been ratified by the Duma, and this is unlikely to happen in view of the enlargement of NATO, strongly opposed by all parties in Russia.

A Malaysian-sponsored resolution, calling for a Nuclear Weapons Convention, was passed by a large majority of the UN General Assembly in December 1996, but the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, the body that needs to implement it, is completely stymied. The nuclear weapon powers are clearly in no hurry. They are planning to keep their nuclear weapons until well into the next century. An NWFW is still beyond their horizon.

A continued stalemate is dangerous. It may close the window of opportunity that opened after the end of the Cold War, and lead to a new nuclear arms race. It was for these reasons that Pugwash decided to revisit the problem, bring it up-to-date, and put forward suggestions for progress. The results of this study, discussed at a Pugwash Workshop held in London in October 1996, are presented in this volume.

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