Miroslav Nincic - How War Might Spread to Europe

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ROUTLEDGE LIBRARY EDITIONS: COLD WAR SECURITY STUDIES

Volume 27

HOW WAR MIGHT SPREAD TO EUROPE

First published in 1985 by Taylor & Francis Ltd

This edition first published in 2021

by Routledge

2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

and by Routledge

52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

1985 SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute)

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN: 978-0-367-56630-2 (Set)

ISBN: 978-1-00-312438-2 (Set) (ebk)

ISBN: 978-0-367-62706-5 (Volume 27) (hbk)

ISBN: 978-1-00-311044-6 (Volume 27) (ebk)

Publishers Note

The publisher has gone to great lengths to ensure the quality of this reprint but points out that some imperfections in the original copies may be apparent.

Disclaimer

The publisher has made every effort to trace copyright holders and would welcome correspondence from those they have been unable to trace.

How War Might Spread to Europe

Miroslav Nincic

sipri
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

• UK Taylor & Francis Ltd, 4 John St, London WC1N 2ET
• USA Taylor & Francis Inc., 242 Cherry St, Philadelphia, PA 191061906

Copyright SIPRI 1985

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner and publishers.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

Nincic, Miroslav

How war might spread to Europe

1. War

I. Title

355 .02 U2l 2

ISBN 0-85066-302-4

Cover design by Malvern Lumsden.

Typeset by Alresford Phototypesetting, Alresford, Hants.

Printed in Great Britain by Taylor & Francis (Printers) Ltd, Basingstoke, Hants.

Not many people believe that a war is likely to start in Europe. Europe appears to be a continent with settled boundaries. As the years go by, scenarios of sudden unprovoked incursions across the border either by NATO or Warsaw Treaty Organization troops become less and less plausible.

In many other parts of the world the risks of war are much greater: and in most of these troubled areas the United States and the Soviet Union confront each other by proxy. The possibility cannot be excluded that these indirect conflicts might at some point become direct. Then war might well come to Europe.

In this book Mr Miroslav Nincic of New York University examines these risks. He studies the various areas outside Europe where the major powersin particular the United States and the Sovet Unionconfront each other, and looks at ways in which a war might spread. A final chapter puts forward suggestions about how this risk might be reduced.

This book is part of SIPRIs programme of studies in European Security, a programme under the general direction of Mr Sverre Lodgaard. Acknowledgement is given to William Jewson for editing the manuscript.

SIPRI
November 1984

Frank Blackaby
Director

Contents

Chapter 2. The arenas: superpower disputes and the Third World

I. Introduction

II. The Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean

III. The eastern Mediterranean

IV. Other regions

V. Conclusion

Appendix. Naval nuclear deployments in the Mediterranean area and in the Indian Ocean

Chapter 3. Allied dilemmas: dangers of European involvement

I. Introduction

II. Western Europe

III. Eastern Europe

IV. Summary

Chapter 4. Two scenarios

I. Introduction

II. The Persian Gulf

III. An ArabIsraeli conflict

IV. Conclusions

Appendix. Conflict expansion and probability analysis: an illustrative example

Chapter 5. On reducing the risks

I. Introduction

II. Dealing with conflicting USSoviet policies in the Third World

III. Military deployments and activities

IV. Final thoughts

1. Chapter 2. The arenas: superpower disputes and the Third World
   1. I. Introduction
   2. II. The Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean
   3. III. The eastern Mediterranean
   4. IV. Other regions
   5. V. Conclusion
   6. Appendix. Naval nuclear deployments in the Mediterranean area and in the Indian Ocean
2. Chapter 3. Allied dilemmas: dangers of European involvement
   1. I. Introduction
   2. II. Western Europe
   3. III. Eastern Europe
   4. IV. Summary
3. Chapter 4. Two scenarios
   1. I. Introduction
   2. II. The Persian Gulf
   3. III. An ArabIsraeli conflict
   4. IV. Conclusions
   5. Appendix. Conflict expansion and probability analysis: an illustrative example
4. Chapter 5. On reducing the risks
   1. I. Introduction
   2. II. Dealing with conflicting USSoviet policies in the Third World
   3. III. Military deployments and activities
   4. IV. Final thoughts

Guide

ALOC	Airlanes of communication
ASW	Anti-submarine warfare
AWACS	Airborne warning and control system
BPA	Basic principles agreement
CENTO	Central Treaty Organization
CMEA	Council for Mutual Economic Assistance
COMEDEAST	Commander eastern Mediterranean (NATO)
CSCE	Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe
EMP	Electro-magnetic pulse
FAR	Forcedaction rapide (France)
GIUK gap	GreenlandIcelandUnited Kingdom gap
GLCM	Ground-launched cruise missile
IEPG	Independent European programme group
LRTNF	Long-range theatre nuclear force
NADGE	NATO air defence ground environment
NATO	North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NWFZ	Nuclear weapon-free zone
OPEC	Oil producing and exporting countries
PG/WIO	Persion Gulf/Western Indian Ocean
POL	Petroleum, oil and lubricants (depots)
SALT	Strategic arms limitation talks
SAM	Surface-to-air missile

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