Richard Cohen - Superpowers in Economic Decline: U.S. Strategy for the Transcentury Era

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ROUTLEDGE LIBRARY EDITIONS:
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES

Volume 20

SUPERPOWERS IN ECONOMIC DECLINE

SUPERPOWERS IN ECONOMIC DECLINE

U.S. Strategy for the Transcentury Era

RICHARD COHEN AND PETER A. WILSON

First published in 1990 by Crane Russak, a member of the Taylor & Francis Group

This edition first published in 2021

by Routledge

2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

and by Routledge

52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

1990 Taylor & Francis New York Inc.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN: 978-0-367-68499-0 (Set)

ISBN: 978-1-00-316169-1 (Set) (ebk)

ISBN: 978-0-367-71159-7 (Volume 20) (hbk)

ISBN: 978-0-367-71166-5 (Volume 20) (pbk)

ISBN: 978-1-00-314958-3 (Volume 20) (ebk)

Publishers Note

The publisher has gone to great lengths to ensure the quality of this reprint but points out that some imperfections in the original copies may be apparent.

Disclaimer

The publisher has made every effort to trace copyright holders and would welcome correspondence from those they have been unable to trace.

SUPERPOWERS IN ECONOMIC DECLINE

U.S. Strategy for the Transcentury Era

Richard Cohen and Peter A. Wilson

USA	Publishing Office:	Taylor & Francis New York, Inc. 79 Madison Ave., New York, NY 10016-7892
Sales Office:	Taylor & Francis Inc. 1900 Frost Road, Bristol PA 19007-1598
UK	Taylor & Francis Ltd. 4 John St., London WC1N 2ET

Superpowers in Economic Decline

Copyright 1990 Taylor & Francis New York Inc.

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner.

First published 1990

Printed in the United States of America

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

Cohen, Richard 1946-

Superpowers in economic decline / Richard Cohen and Peter Wilson.

p.cm.

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN 0-8448-1624-8. ISBN 0-8448-1625-6 (pbk.)

1. United StatesArmed ForcesAppropriations and expenditures.

2. Soviet UnionArmed ForcesAppropriations and expenditures.

3. United StatesEconomic conditions1981- 4. Soviet Union Economic conditions1976- I. Wilson, Peter A., 1928-

II. Title.

UA23.C585 1990

330.94785dc20 90-32080

CIP

For our children

Contents

List of Figures

List of Tables

Acknowledgments

Chapter 2. Soviet Economic Decline and Its National Security ImplicationsReasons and Responses

Economic Decline: The Reasons

Economic Decline: And the Response

The Soviet Economic Dimension of Security Vulnerability

Chapter 3. Whither the Soviet Threat?

The Andropov Coalition: A Reaction to Economic Decline and Its Alarming Security Implications

Gorbachevs Mission: Reversing the Long Cycle Decline and Forging a Minimal Line of Security

Why Moscow Must Cut Defense Spending

The Future Soviet Threat

Chapter 4. Economic Constraints on U.S. National Security SpendingReasons and Responses

Why The U.S. Economy has Faltered

U.S. Postwar Policy: Responding to the Inflation/ Output Dilemma While Meeting the Challenge to Payments Balances

The U.S. Economy: Cyclical Structure and Inter-cyclical Retreat, 1959-82

Washington Confronts the Economic Dimension

Chapter 5. Taking Stock of the Reagan Revolution

A Supply-Side Effort to Reverse the Economic Slide

A Revolution in National Security Accounts

Chapter 6. The Defense Investment Dilemma of the 1990s: Contemporary or Transcentury Weapons?

Transcentury Weapons: Components and Costs

The Cost Explosion in Contemporary Forces

Chapter 7. Conclusion: Expanding the Scope of U.S. National Security Policy

The Economic Policy Component: A Cycle of Adjustment

The Defense Investment Component: Pursuing Advantages and Opportunities

Appendices

Appendix AU.S. Government National Security Outlays, FY1940-88

Appendix BU.S. External Balances, 1946-88

Appendix CNational Security and Transfer Payments as a Percent of GNP, FY 1940-88

Appendix DNational Security and Transfer Payments as a Percent of U.S. Government Outlays, FY1940-88

Appendix ENational Defense Investment and Procurement as a Percent of U.S. National Defense Expenditures, FY 1962-88

Notes

Bibliography of Data Sources

Selected Bibliography

About the Authors

Figure 2.1 Long-term Soviet economic performance

(a) Soviet national income growth, 1966-2000official Soviet vs. Aganbegyans estimates and projections, 10

(b) The Soviet long cycle, 10

Figure 2.2 Stalins economic reforms and the accelerated rise in factor input costs, 13

Figure 2.3 Forces contributing to the rising costs of Soviet labor, 1961 80, 19

Figure 2.4 Forces behind Soviet economic growth, 1961-80, 22

Figure 2.5 The Soviet policy response to faltering economic performance, 25

Figure 2.6 Moscows national security cost and its disposition toward the Economic Dimension of Security Vulnerability, 32

Figure 3.1 Lines of growth and Soviet security, 57

Figure 3.2 The rise and fall of Soviet GNP and labor productivity growth rates, 1985-88, 67

Figure 3.3 The rise of the Soviet government budget deficit under Gorbachev, 70

Figure 3.4 Figure 3.4 U.S. and USSR estimates of Soviet defense spending and their impact on the portion of defense spending Moscow is prepared to cut, 85

Figure 3.5 Alternative Soviet threat futuresshort and long term,

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