Jiri Valenta - Soviet Decisionmaking for National Security

Volume 47

First published in 1984 by George Allen & Unwin (Publishers) Ltd

This edition first published in 2021

by Routledge

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1984 Center for International and Strategic Affairs, University of California, Los Angeles and Jiri Valenta

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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN: 978-0-367-56630-2 (Set)

ISBN: 978-1-00-312438-2 (Set) (ebk)

ISBN: 978-0-367-62134-6 (Volume 47) (hbk)

ISBN: 978-1-00-310810-8 (Volume 47) (ebk)

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The publisher has gone to great lengths to ensure the quality of this reprint but points out that some imperfections in the original copies may be apparent.

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The publisher has made every effort to trace copyright holders and would welcome correspondence from those they have been unable to trace.

Edited by

Jiri Valenta

Naval Postgraduate School

William C. Potter

Center for International and Strategic Affairs, University of California, Los Angeles

Center for International and Strategic Affairs, University of California, Los Angeles and Jiri Valenta, 1984

This book is copyright under the Berne Convention. No reproduction without permission. All rights reserved.

George Allen & Unwin (Publishers) Ltd,

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George Allen & Unwin (Publishers) Ltd,

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Allen & Unwin Inc.,

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First published in 1984

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

Soviet decisionmaking for national security.

1. Soviet UnionMilitary policy

I. Valenta, Jiri

II. Potter, William C.

355.033547 UA770

ISBN 0-04-351063-9

ISBN 0-04-351065-5 Pbk

Libralry of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

Main entry under title:

Soviet decisionmaking for national security.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

1. Soviet UnionNational securityDecision making.

2. Soviet UnionDefensesDecision making. I. Valenta,

Jiri. II. Potter, William C.

UA770.S658 1984 354.470089 83-21357

ISBN 0-04-351063-9

ISBN 0-04-351065-5 (pbk.)

Set in 10 on 11 point Times by

D. P. Media Limited, Hitchin, Hertfordshire

and printed in Great Britain by

Butler & Tanner Ltd,

Frome and London

The 1980s promise to be a period of considerable flux in Soviet-American relations. In a sense, an era ended with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, followed by the political demise of the second SALT agreement and the change in American leaders. Nevertheless, many observers see the present as a period for Soviet strategic opportunities, an optimal period for advances before certain internal complications set in. Do the Soviet leaders share this view? If so, what decisions follow?

The death of Leonid Brezhnev on 10 November 1982 marked the end of an era in Soviet politics, an era marked by unprecedented political continuity. Now, many of the major figures of the late sixties and seventies have passed from the scene: Brezhnev, Kosygin, Suslov and Podgorny are dead; Kirilenkos political career is in evident eclipse. The question now arises of how long will the new leadership, initially under the stewardship of Secretary-General Andropov, continue the policies of the Brezhnev era, and if and when will they initiate a redirection of policy? All indications are that Andropov may become one of the Soviet Unions most clever and intelligent leaders, one who will diligently strive to maximize and preserve Soviet power. The impetus for new policy directions may come from younger members of the leadership. The younger generation, which had been shut out of the top leadership for years as the Brezhnev collegium tenaciously held on to power, may push to accelerate the implementation of new policy initiatives. Certainly, understanding the processes of Soviet decisionmaking, the object of the chapters in this volume, is complicated by the volatile nature of Soviet politics during a succession crisis.