Will Hayward - Independent Nation: Should Wales Leave the UK?

T he people of Wales visited the polling stations on St Davids Day in 1979 and proceeded to junk the Labour governments piddling proposals for a national elected body in Cardiff. I was a schoolboy in Llanelli at that time and remember the toxic campaign only too well. Opponents of the plans some Welsh Labour MPs among them had spent the campaign ridiculing the very idea of a Welsh Assembly and of challenging the revered supremacy of Westminster.

The economic and social lot of Wales in the decades that followed transformed the terms of debate about national governance. Even then, such was the depth of Welsh inhibition about any degree of self-determination that Tony Blair riding high in the polls only just managed to convince the people of Wales that this would be a beneficial move.

Fast forward to 2022 and we have indisputable evidence that the Senedd (no longer a puny National Assembly) is supported by a settled majority of Welsh voters. This really has been a change of revolutionary scale. A steadily strengthening sense of Welsh identity over that same period cannot be considered a coincidence. xii

And yet of the United Kingdoms four nations Wales is by far the most difficult to understand and interpret. The independent Welsh Election Study produced by Cardiff University in 2021 indicated that while most people in Scotland and England considered themselves strongly Scottish or strongly English, the more complex demographics of Wales where over a quarter of voters have English roots call for extreme care before reaching any conclusions. The strongly Welsh contingent was only slightly larger than the Welsh and British grouping. The Welsh vote in favour of Brexit which few predicted has to be seen against a wider background of prolonged economic inertia and extensive pockets of poverty and deprivation, as well as rapid demographic change. The economic effects of Brexit have yet to be fully felt and measured.

This, then, is the hazardous but thrilling landscape into which Will Hayward has bravely stepped. Wills formidable analytical and journalistic skills are already known to a wide audience. His reporting on the pandemic characterised by his rigorous approach to examining the performance of government and public bodies has impressed many who recognise the disappointing track record of much of the Welsh media in this area. My immediate response is to thank him for investing so much time and intellectual energy in a study of crucial importance to Wales and the United Kingdom at this turbulent time.

Just saying the words independent Wales has been a guaranteed sidesplitter for centuries. Preposterous, demented, deranged, laughable, delusional these have been the reflex verdicts of political sages in both Wales and England over the years. There is still no shortage of sages offering tired responses, but even they acknowledge that the terms of the debate have changed in every way. xiii Comparable surveys of Welsh opinion have tracked a marked rise in support for independence, not least after a pandemic which saw a Welsh government widely praised for adopting an independent approach. That approach was far from flawless, but the more cautious policy decisions were contrasted with those of Westminster. And there was no Partygate in Cardiff Bay.

What has not happened is a rigorous debate on the economics, the constitution, the social and education policy on the way ahead. The work of the constitutional commission led by Laura McAllister and Rowan Williams will be invaluable. But in this book, Will Hayward sets out to make this debate accessible to a much wider audience. This is, without doubt, a significant contribution to the democratic debate on the future of Wales.

In an age of echo-chamber agitation conducted on social media platforms where truth and fiction are seemingly indivisible this book by Will is to be welcomed by all who value fact-based, rational debate.

Huw Edwards
London
July 2022