Manoj Kewalramani - Smokeless War: Chinas Quest for Geopolitical Dominance

In Smokeless War, Manoj Kewalramani gives us a granular analysis of Chinas response to the 2020 COVID-19 crisis, using her available power, integrated across domains from discourse power to diplomacy to economics. Going beyond the headlines or just the first draft of history, the book draws broader conclusions about Chinas trajectory and workings, including the ideological aspects which outsiders often find unclear. This is a book well worth reading by all those concerned about the behaviour of one of the worlds most powerful and unique countries, China.

Amb. Shivshankar Menon

Former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of India

Smokeless War, Manoj Kewalramanis insightful new book, details how China crafted its political and diplomatic narrative when responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. Kewalramani, a fellow at the Takshashila Institution, unfolds the CCPs multiple levels of engagement with the pandemic and, in doing so, delves into the questions of Chinese power that will define the global foreign-policy debate for years to come.

Dr. Shashi Tharoor

Member of Parliament, Lok Sabha

Is it a smokeless war or rather a gunless war waged behind a smokescreen? For the Chinese leadership, the fight against the pandemic is highly political. In the line of fire are nothing less than the ruling partys legitimacy and Chinas position as a great power second to none. In this engaging and thoroughly researched book, Manoj Kewalramani recalls the past years course of events and artfully exposes Beijings strategy and tactics to win the contest for narrative dominance and geopolitical primacy.

Nadge Rolland

Senior Fellow Political and Security Affairs,

The National Bureau of Asian Research

In a gripping narrative on the COVID-19 pandemic that has turned the world upside down, Manoj Kewalramani offers deep insights into Chinas decisive handling of the crisis, the Chinese Communist Partys changed worldview under Xi Jinping, the nature of Beijings ideological hubris, the sources of its geopolitical assertiveness and the implications for the rest of the world. Based on a close reading of Mandarin sources and rooted in a sensible analytical framework, Smokeless War is an important and accessible account of the meaning of Chinas rise.

C. Raja Mohan

Director, Institute of South Asian Studies,

National University of Singapore

Manoj Kewalramani, with his usual insight, brings a riveting account of what happened in China during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. You feel that impending sense of gloom as you look back. You wonder, could things have been different? This is a must-read if we are to make sense of what happened in 2020.

Indrani Bagchi

Diplomatic Editor,

The Times of India

SMOKELESS WAR

SMOKELESS WAR

Chinas Quest for
Geopolitical Dominance

Manoj Kewalramani

BLOOMSBURY INDIA

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First published in India 2021

This edition published 2021

Copyright Manoj Kewalramani, 2021

Manoj Kewalramani has asserted his right under the Indian Copyright Act to be identified as the author of this work

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ISBN: HB: 978-93-54350-94-8; e-Book: 978-93-54350-96-2

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To Megha & Kabir

For keeping me together Smokeless

CONTENTS

The genesis of this book lies in a question that was asked on the cover of The Economist magazines issue of 18 April 2020. Is China Winning? the editors had then wondered. This came mere days after Wuhan had reopened with much fanfare. In contrast, cities around the world were instituting lockdowns to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. In just under three months since Wuhan first went into lockdown, the Chinese government had seemingly managed to contain the virus spread across the country. Moreover, what had once seemed to be an existential threat to the Communist Party of Chinas (CCP) authority was rapidly turning into a propaganda coup. By late February, Chinese officials and Party-state media had shifted from being on the defensive to projecting their success. At home, they paid tribute to martyrs and warriors while praising the superiority of the CCP-led governance model. Internationally, they brushed aside criticism and hailed Chinas arrival as a major power.

The piece accompanying the headline in The Economist touched upon the potential geopolitical fallout of these events. What had the pandemic told us about the durability of CCP rule in China? Are we destined for a superpower jostle between Washington and Beijing? Does the Xi Jinping-led CCP desire to supplant US global primacy? If so, what is the model that it draws upon; does this have global purchase, and to what effect? Also, what about economic globalisationdoes the pandemic signal the beginning of its end? More fundamentally, what does winning entail? And victory for whom?

The chapters that follow are an attempt to unpack and address each of these questions. In order to do so, I have drawn on the research of and analytical frameworks developed by scholars and practitioners whose works have been critical in furthering our understanding of political life in China. In addition, when discussing Beijings policies, along with diplomatic and narrative approaches, I have prioritised Chinese government documents, official statements, Party-state media reportage and other Chinese language sources rather than rely on second-hand reportage. For all the intrigue and secrecy, there is much that the Chinese government and media puts out in the public domain that often remains unexplored or lost in translation in mainstream media discourse. Of course, this process of identifying, translating and verifying the content has been challenging to say the least. For their assistance in this process, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Ms Shraddha Prabhu Kumar from the Yellow River Chinese Academy in Bangalore and Ms Una Chen. In addition, I would like to thank Ms Urshita Pandit for her feedback on the early draft of the manuscript and assistance in meticulously sorting and arranging the maze of references. I would also be remiss if I did not acknowledge my colleagues at the Takshashila Institution. Many of the arguments found in the chapters that follow have been discussed, debated and fine-tuned in conversations with many of them through the year. Finally, none of this would have been possible without the untiring support and encouragement of my family. To their kindness and love, I am forever indebted.