John F Antal - 7 Seconds to Die

Published in the United States of America and Great Britain in 2022 by

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Copyright 2022 John Antal

Paperback Edition: ISBN 978-1-63624-123-4

Digital Edition: ISBN 978-1-63624-124-1

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Cover image credit: istockphoto / Julia Garan

Foreword

Learn and adapt, or lose to those who do. This is the hard calculus of war. Capable people die when they ignore the reality of the modern battlespace, and the reality of modern war is changing ever faster as the methods of war continuously evolve with the advance of technology.

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, which occurred from September 27 to November 10, 2020, is a war that military and national security professionals must study. This war was one of historic watersheds in military technology and methods of war. It was the first war in history that was shaped and primarily won by robotic systems. To be sure, machines did not win this war alone. The teaming of human soldiers with the effects of unmanned systems was crucial.

The lessons of this war provide a glimpse of wars to come. As author John Antal emphasizes in this book, those involved in national defense have an obligation to study recent wars, derive lessons, and turn these into action. In this effort, time is vital as lessons applied too late to make a difference become irrelevant. Acting in time, before an adversary can use the changing methods of warfare to their advantage against you, is what we expect from those shouldered with the responsibility of our defense. Failure in this arena ends badly for everyone, whereas success can deter war or win it.

The author, Colonel John Antal, US Army (Retired), is uniquely qualified to bring the lessons of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War to the reader. Colonel Antal has conducted a detailed analysis of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and spent the past year briefing senior government and military decision-makers about the war and raising the alarm. He has completed his comprehensive and well-written review using a broad range of open-source information and applying his keen sense of military operations and military history to the effort. His study is a wake-up call that highlights the changing methods of war that government and military professionals should heed.

Decisive wars are uncommon. In the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Azerbaijan waged a modern military campaign in multiple domains that resulted in the decisive defeat of Armenia in 44 days. Armenia fought bravely, but was neither trained nor equipped for the modern war unleashed by Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan over-matched Armenia at nearly every level. Azerbaijan, with extensive help from Turkey, unleashed a force of unmanned aerial systems and loitering munitions that disintegrated the Armenian air defense network, secured air supremacy, and then set about destroying command and control, artillery, tanks, armored vehicles and personnel. It took soldiers working closely with these unmanned systems to finish the war, but the smart use of unmanned systems, at a scale not seen before, shaped the campaign. We should learn from this decisive war, understand its lessons, and use this knowledge to prepare for coming storms.

Dr Alexander Kott

Army Research Laboratory

Alexander Kott

Acknowledgements

This book deals with an important and unpleasant subject: preparing for the next war. Writing a book that will impel people to think and act on this subject is about starting a dialoguea cooperative two-war conversationand sharing that dialogue with the world. Creating a compelling dialogue requires the support of many people. This work is totally my own and not the work of any government organization or group. All information for this book was drawn from open-source information. I wish to thank those who helped transform Seven Seconds to Die from a thought to publication. First, a very special thanks to my amazing wife, Uncha Antal. She inspires me every day and makes all things possible. Second, I want to thank Dr. Alexander Kott for writing the foreword to this book and engaging in our discussions about the events and lessons of the Second Nagorno Karabakh War. Next, I want to thank Colonel (Retired) Francis Fierko and Colonel (Retired) Rick Jung, for taking time to discuss, analyze and review the manuscript. Their editorial help and keen insight were crucial. I also want to thank Shawn Graves and Carolyn Petracca for their comments and advice. Finally, I am thankful for the editing and advice of the manuscript from Andy Wright and Ruth Sheppard of Casemate Publishers. I am eternally thankful to all of you.

Names Used in this Book for Locations, Villages, Towns and Cities in Nagorno-Karabakh

Armenian and Azerbaijani names for locations, villages, towns and cities in Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding regions are sometimes different. Stepanakert, the capital of Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh, is called Khankendi by the Azerbaijanis. This can become very confusing and writing multiple names for each location is tedious. My method is to use the name of the nation that owned the area after the November 10, 2020, ceasefire. I have therefore decided to use the following names throughout this book for the locations listed below. Some of these use the Armenian name and some the Azerbaijani. The names of locations used in this book are listed here in alphabetical order in the left column of the table below, along with their Armenian and Azerbaijani equivalents.