Dennis M Gormley - Dealing with the Threat of Cruise Missiles

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Dennis M. Gormley

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Dealing with the Threat of Cruise Missiles

Adelphi Paper 339

First published June 2001 by Oxford University Press for
The International Institute for Strategic Studies
Arundel House, 1315 Arundel Street, Temple Place, London WC2R 3DX

This reprint published by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN
For ilie International Institute for Strategic Studies
Arundel House, 1315 Arundel Street, Temple Place, London, WC2R 3DX
www.iiss.org

Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada
By Routledge
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

The International Institute for Strategic Studies 2001

Director John Chipman
Editor Mats R. Berdal
Assistant Editor John Wheelwright
Project Manager, Design and Production Mark Taylor

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photo-copying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The International Institute for Strategic Studies. Within the UK, exceptions are allowed in respect of any fair dealing for the purpose of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms of the licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms and in other countries should be sent to the publisher.

This book is sold subject to the condition that it shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, re-sold, hired out or otherwise circulated without the publisher's prior consent in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Data available

Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication Data

ISBN 0-19-851527-8
ISSN 0567-932X

Contents

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AAM	air-to-air missile
ADSAM	air-directed surface-to-air missile
ASCM	anti-ship cruise missile
AWACS	Airborne Warning And Control System
BMC3	battle-management command, control and communications
BMDO	Ballistic Missile Defense Organization
C3I	command, control, communications and intelligence
CASOM	conventionally armed stand-off missile
CEC	Cooperative Engagement Capability
CEP	circular error probable
CID	combat identification
DARPA	Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
DGPS	differential GPS
DPG	Defense Planning Guidance
DSMAC	digital scene-matching area correlation
EADS	European Aeronautic, Defence and Space Company
FCS	fire-control system
FMC	flight-management computer
G-7	Group of Seven
Gb	gigabyte(s)
GLONASS	Global Navigation Satellite System
GPS	Global Positioning System
ICBM	intercontinental ballistic missile
INS	inertial navigation system
IR	infra-red
JASSM	Joint Air-to-Surface Stand-off Missile
JDAM	Joint Direct Attack Munition
JLENS	Joint Land-attack Cruise Missile Defense Elevated Netted Sensor System
JSTARS	Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System
JTAMDO	Joint Theater Air and Missile Defense Organization
LACM	land-attack cruise missile
LCCMD	Low Cost Cruise Missile Defense
MALD	Miniature Air Launched Decoy
Mb	megabyte(s)
MBD	Matra BAe Dynamics
MBT	main battle tank
MEADS	Medium Extended Air Defense System
MHz	megahertz
MSOW	modular stand-off weapon
MTCR	Missile Technology Control Regime
NAVSTAR	Navigation Satellite for Time and Ranging
NORAD	North American Air Defense Command
NTW	Navy Theater-Wide defense
PLA	People's Liberation Army
RCS	radar cross-section
RMA	revolution in military affairs
RPV	remotely piloted vehicle
RTIP	Radar Technology Insertion Program
SAM	surface-to-air missile
SIAP	single integrated air picture
SLAM	Stand-off Land-Attack Missile
TEL	transporter-erector-launcher
TERCOM	terrain contour matching
THAAD	Theater High-Altitude Area Defence
UAE	United Arab Emirates
UAV	unmanned aerial vehicle
UCAV	unmanned combat aerial vehicle
WMD	weapon(s) of mass destruction

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Ballistic missiles dominated the missile-proliferation scene throughout the last decade of the twentieth century. Yet, for land-attack missions, cruise missiles were more prominent instruments of warfare than ballistic missiles during that decade as witness the extensive US use of Tomahawk cruise missiles in seven different contingencies, including the Gulf War and the Kosovo campaign. Importantly, though, these weapons had not yet spread widely beyond the arsenals of the US and Russia.

Now, however, many analysts and defence planners predict that before long the developing world will exploit the ongoing scientific, economic and social transformations that are contributing to an emerging revolution in military affairs (RMA) to develop significant quantities of cruise missiles. Even worse, weak export controls could permit direct purchases of advanced cruise missiles from major industrial suppliers. As Lawrence Freedman has observed, Cruise missiles are to some extent the paradigmatic weapon of the RMA, as delivery systems that can be launched from a variety of platforms and strike in a precise manner and with low collateral damage. If the use of large numbers of land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs) becomes a widespread and dominant feature of military operations in the twenty-first century, the strategic consequences for international security could be profound.

The notion that LACMs could emerge to threaten US military dominance seems, on the surface, dubious. If anything, the US appears to be increasing the capability gap between itself and its allies as well as its adversaries. Nevertheless, the military-related technologies that lie behind the emerging military transformation are spreading too rapidly and too widely to justify relying on Operation Desert Storm as the principal yardstick for thinking about future warfare. Indeed, America's growing dominance in conducting conventional warfare makes it highly likely that potential adversaries will seek new means of thwarting military intervention, one of which may be the acquisition and deployment of cruise missiles. Thus, cruise-missile proliferation could make power projection increasingly risky.

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