George P. Shultz - Deterrence: Its Past and Future-Papers Presented at Hoover Institution, November 2010

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The Hoover Institution gratefully acknowledges the following individuals and foundations for their significant support of this publication: T HE W ILLIAM AND F LORA H EWLETT F OUNDATION M R. AND M RS. W ILLIAM O BERNDORF

Papers Presented at
Hoover Institution, November 2010

Edited by
George P. Shultz, Sidney D. Drell, and James E. Goodby

H O O V E R I N S T I T U T I O N P R E S S

STANFORD UNIVERSITY STANFORD, CALIFORNIA

The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, founded at Stanford University in 1919 by Herbert Hoover, who went on to become the thirty-first president of the United States, is an interdisciplinary research center for advanced study on domestic and international affairs. The views expressed in its publications are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, officers, or Board of Overseers of the Hoover Institution.

www.hoover.org

Hoover Institution Press Publication No. 613

Hoover Institution at Leland Stanford Junior University, Stanford, California 94305-6010

Copyright 2011 by the Board of Trustees of the
Leland Stanford Junior University

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without written permission of the publisher and copyright holders.

First printing 2011

Manufactured in the United States of America

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Deterrence : its past and future : papers presented at Hoover Institution, November 2010 / edited by George P. Shultz, Sidney D. Drell, and James E. Goodby.

pages cm. (Hoover Institution Press publication ; No. 613)

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-0-8179-1384-7 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN 978-0-8179-1386-1 (e-book)

1. Deterrence (Strategy)Congresses. 2. Nuclear weaponsCongresses. 3. Nuclear arms controlCongresses. 4. Security, InternationalCongresses. I. Shultz, George Pratt, 1920- editor of compilation. II. Drell, Sidney D. (Sidney David), 1926- editor of compilation. III. Goodby, James E., editor of compilation. IV. Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace, issuing body. V. Series: Hoover Institution Press publication ; 613.

U162.6.D452 2011

355.0217dc23 2011036863

C O N T E N T S

by George P. Shultz

by James E. Goodby

How History and the Geopolitical
Context Shape Deterrence
by Patrick Morgan and George Quester

by Michael Mazarr and James E. Goodby

Nuclear Deterrence in a World Without
Nuclear Weapons
by Sidney D. Drell and Raymond Jeanloz

Nuclear Weapons Reconstitution and its
Discontents: Challenges of Weaponless Deterrence
by Christopher A. Ford

Playing for Time on the Edge of the Apocalypse:
Maximizing Decision Time for Nuclear Leaders
by Christopher A. Ford

by James M. Acton, Edward Ifft, and John McLaughlin

Practical Considerations Related to Verification
and Compliance
by Edward Ifft

Deterrence and Enforcement in a World Free of
Nuclear Weapons
by David Holloway

Appendix A:
by Harald Mller

Appendix B: Nuclear Deterrence in the Twenty-first
Century: An Ethical Analysis
by Tyler Wigg-Stevenson

Appendix C:

Appendix D:

A B B R E V I A T I O N S

ABM anti-ballistic missile

ALTBMD Active Layered Theater Ballistic Missile Defense

ARG Accident Response Group

AWE Atomic Weapons Establishment

BDA Banco Delta Asia, a Macau-based financial institution

BMD Ballistic Missile Defense

BTWC Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention

BW Biological Weapon

BWC Biological Weapons Convention

CI command, control, communications, and intelligence systems

CBW Chemical and Biological Weapons

CD Conference on Disarmament

CFE Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty

CPGS Conventional Prompt Global Strike

CR countervailing reconstitution

CTBT Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

CW Chemical Weapons

CWC Chemical Weapons Convention

DSP Defense Support Program

FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas

FMCT Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty

IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency

ICBM intercontinental ballistic missile

ILSA Iran and Libya Sanctions Act

INF Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces

ISI Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence

JDEC Joint Data Exchange Center

LANL Los Alamos National Laboratory

LEP Life Extension Program

LOW Launch on Warning

MIRV Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicles

NAS U.S. National Academy of Sciences

NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization

NC3 nuclear command, control, and communications system

NEST American Nuclear Emergency Support Team

New START New START Treaty between the U.S. and Russia, entry into the force in 2011

NG Neutron Generator

NGO Non-Governmental Organization

NIE National Intelligence Estimate

NNSA National Nuclear Security Administration

NNWS non-nuclear-weapon states

NORAD North American Air Defense Command

NPR Nuclear Posture Review

NPT Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

NRC National Research Council (associated with NAS)

NRRC Nuclear Risk Reduction Center

NTM national technical means

NWFP Northwest Frontier Province

NWC Nuclear Weapons Convention

NWS nuclear-weapon states

OPCW Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons

OSI on-site inspection

PAC-3 Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missile

PNI Presidential Nuclear Initiatives

PPCM perimeter and portal continuous monitoring

RAF Royal Air Force

RAMOS Russian-American Observation Satellite

RFID radio-frequency identification

SALT Strategic Arms Limitations Talks

SDI Strategic Defense Initiative

SIOP Single Integrated Operational Plan

SLBM submarine-launched ballistic missile

SNDV Strategic Nuclear Delivery Vehicles

SNL Sandia National Laboratory

SORT Bush-Putin Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty of 2002

SSBN Ballistic Missile Submarine

SSP Stockpile Stewardship Program

START Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty between the U.S. and Russia

TMD Theater Missile Defense system

U.N. United Nations

UID alphanumeric unique identifier

UNMOVIC U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission

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