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J. Bowyer Bell - Dragonwars: Armed Struggle & the Conventions of Modern War

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J. Bowyer Bell Dragonwars: Armed Struggle & the Conventions of Modern War
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For centuries international order has been troubled by small wars, insurrections, and revolts--low intensity conflicts. With the implosion of the Soviet empire many thought such violence could be eradicated through the growth of democracy, open societies, and increased productivity and education. Instead the world remains filled with turmoil, pogroms, famine, civil war, rebellion, and terror, often instigated by armed and dangerous zealots. To Americans such killers seem alien and inexplicable, fanatics without reason, beyond the reach of conventional containment or retaliation. J. Bowyer Bell here explores the psychological and strategic ecosystems (which he terms dragon worlds) of modern political violence and suggests how America might effectively deal with it. Dragonwars combines analysis with historical examples drawn from Americas involvement with armed struggle in Lebanon, Central Am-erica, Greece, and Vietnam. In each instance, Bell argues, American policy was flawed by lack of empathy and historical understanding combined with a belief that failure could be traced to mistakes in details and procedures. The break up of the old bipolar U.S.-Soviet confrontation released suppressed ambitions, tribal greed, and greater flexibility for the small player. With new technologies of terror, zones of security will become smaller, since open societies present attractive targets for zealots. Bell rejects the notion that massive force can effect a swift and final result. Instead, a new type of warrior will be required; one versed in history and empathetic to the belief-systems of the dragonworlds in which they are deployed. Bell acknowledges that his proposals run counter to American belief and practice, but argues that in the face of insoluble conflicts, incremental advantages, through limited altered global arena, Dragonwars will prove an indispensable guide for policymakers, military planners, historians, and political scientists.

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First published 1999 by Transaction Publishers
Published 2017 by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon 0X14 4RN
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
Copyright 1999 by Taylor & Francis
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
Library of Congress Catalog Number: 99-20843
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Bell, J. Bowyer, 1931
Dragonwars : armed struggle and the conventions of modern war / J. Bowyer Bell, p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references (p. ) and index.
ISBN 1-56000-357-X (acid-free paper)
1. Low-intensity conflicts (Military science) 2. World politics1989- 3. United StatesMilitary policy. I. Title.
U240.B44 1999
355.02dc21
99-20843
CIP
ISBN 13: 978-1-56000-357-1 (hbk)
For
Sigfriedo Maovaz
and
Ely Tavin
Contents
October 23, 1983, the day that the massive car bomb went off in the midst of the United States Marines on the edge of the Beirut airport is slipping away into history. Yet, amid the seemingly endless terrorist spectaculars and horrors, that particular moment still remains symbolic, the epitome of Americas confusion and despair in the face of revolutionary fanaticism. Vietnam was too complex, open to too many varied definitions and responses. Vietnam means many things. Not Beirut. There Americans seeking only peace were murdered by a zealot. No one has forgotten. Few understand. Nearly every American who remembers Beirut is still outraged. This indignant anguish has been long with the nation in large part because the nature of the contemporary revolutionary and their special world are alien. To Americans such killers seem mad or bestial, fanatics without reason and beyond easy retaliation. The IRA volunteer, the teenage killer prowling the the streets of Africa, the bombers and depraved defenders, the hijackers all blend into the awful, the inexplicable. Such America analysis, arising from the virtues and vices of the American character, has for decades tended to be uncertain, often intense but also often counterproductive.
American intervention in the revolutionary world has been ineffective, neither eliminating irregular challenges to legitimate authority nor encouraging subversion and rebellion. Too often whatever Americans do seems wrong: an overreaction or if not, then a toleration of provocation. What works best has seemed to be great force swiftly deployed and a swift withdrawal: Antigua and Panama and the Dominican Republic. And there is always the danger that there can be no withdrawal as in Vietnam or with honor as in Somalia. Once committed in Haiti or Bosnia, Washington is riven with doubt. Can the troops disengage? Should they have been sent? Is it futile to become involved in such complex, intractable missions?
Americans deploying cunning and stealth and the advantages of technology have indicated only the difficulty in special operations. American efforts to manipulate the alien, even when militarily effective, have often not produced the desired result. The zealots often make poor pawns and those purchased require regular payments and often produce no results. So amid all the alarms and challenges of the postmodern world, the revolutionary, the irregular, the terrorist and the gunman remain as they have for generations, a provocation that has not engendered an effective American response.
Americans are not about to change, gain sudden insight into the violent world of the gunman no matter how appropriate the cause. In this the establishment and the responsible are one with the country. The unconventional are uncongenial. Washington may have supported the Contras in Nicaragua and Afghan mujahedeen, funded potential Iraqi rebels and armed Angolan guerrillas in central Africa; but such support for irregulars often seems to produce more problems than solutions: a tarnished image, ruined policy, ruined reputation, clients transformed into enemies. Each and all of these unconventional liabilities were unforeseen by the pragmatic advocates of special operations. Time and again covert initiatives engendered unpleasant returns. American technique is often elegant but the result somehow not as intended no matter the skill and craft displayed.
The result has been a long-lived dilemma. Whatever Washington does is wrong and doing nothing is often wrong as well. All the nations virtues are changed to handicaps. All experience leads to error and confusion. All those involved, angry with the unconventional, persist and so, having learned nothing, repeat previous error or evade the prospect by recourse to worse solutions. And at the end those responsible rationalize that they meant well. Americans always mean well and somehow their friends in Vietnam pay or their allies are revealed as untrustworthy or simply unsavory, arms given to freedom fighters are sold to bigots or used against friends. As in chaos theory any small intervention, a general bought or a check forwarded, may have enormous, unexpected, and dangerous consequence. In open battles there are winners or losers, the big battalions do well, training, experience, and elegant weapons are apt to win. Yet experience, training and elegant weapons guarantee nothing in unconventional wars, in asymmetrical conflicts between those with power and those dependent on revealed truth or old intractable gods, on the habits of the past or a vision of the future. Then America finds orthodoxy confounded by an alien world.
This particular examination of such underground worlds, Dragonworlds, and the American response assumes as given that neither the irregulars nor the Americans will be greatly transformed in the foreseeable future. The underground has run to rule for over a century no matter the agenda, the arena, or the response. Tribal revolts, ethnic defenders, warlords, and bandits are this century much like those of the previous century. These irregulars may lack faith but deploy irregular skills, are driven by an agenda and assumptions not at all American. Even less so are those zealots who seek to impose a vision on the real world. And Americans are Americans. Rebels will fashion their world as always and Americans will remain, virtues and vices intact,true to their national inclination. The future will not be all that different from the past, filled with surprises but arriving more or less on schedule in matters of protracted, low-intensity conflict. In fact, all indications appear to suggest that insurrection, terror, and insurgency will not only remain intact but also supply most of the wars of the future as they have in the past. The end of the Cold War merely gave the irregular more visibility and less easily acquired patrons. The unconventional conflicts simply continued within a changed global arena.
Dragonwars are actually a growth area. The break up of the old, bipolar, Cold War confrontation released small ambitions, tribal greed, and flexibility for the small player. Nuclear terror may be less fearful but terror seemingly more likely and certainly more visible. The post-modern world is composed of the same intense national interests, new faiths and new technologies, more of the same grievances and quarrels. Zones of security are small; even democracy and prosperity in open society only attract zealots. So if past is prologue, America will still find distasteful challenges by the irregular and still seek conventional responses to unconventional problems. The American national character, the American way of war, the habits of the past will continue to make any response to unconventional challenge halting. America can, however, do better and not betray national ideals or change the character of the people. The problem is there is no solution, only incremental adjustments to advantage for Americans as long as the national ethos persists. And none would want the nation to turn monster to counter the monsters of the Dragonworld.
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