Brian M. Mazanec - The Evolution of Cyber War: International Norms for Emerging-Technology Weapons
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Former secretary of defense Leon Panetta once described cyber warfare as the most serious threat in the twenty-first century, capable of destroying our entire infrastructure and crippling the nation.Already, major cyber attacks have affected countries around the world: Estonia in 2007, Georgia in 2008, Iran in 2010, and most recently the United States. As with other methods of war, cyber technology can be used not only against military forces and facilities but also against civilian targets. Information technology has enabled a new method of warfare that is proving extremely difficult to combat, let alone defeat.And yet cyber warfare is still in its infancy, with innumerable possibilities and contingencies for how such conflicts may play out in the coming decades. Brian M. Mazanec examines the worldwide development of constraining norms for cyber war and predicts how those norms will unfold in the future. Employing case studies of other emerging-technology weaponschemical and biological, strategic bombing, and nuclear weaponryMazanec expands previous understandings of norm-evolution theory, offering recommendations for U.S. policymakers and citizens alike as they grapple with the reality of cyber terrorism in our own backyard.
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Will norms evolve for cyber warfare analogous to those... that have helped keep the world free from the use of nuclear weapons since 1945? This thoughtful and careful work parses this hugely important question with care and creativity. Bravo.
R. James Woolsey, former director of the Central Intelligence Agency and chairman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Dr. Mazanecs pioneering work on cyber norms fills a void in the nascent canon of cyber-conflict knowledge and sets a path forward for further research. Informative and instructive for todays policymakers.
Bob Gourley, former chief technology officer of the Defense Intelligence Agency and the first director of intelligence at the Joint Task Force on Computer Network Defense
The Evolution of Cyber War is a significant contribution to the required canon for anyone interested in understanding this new prospective weapon of mass destruction.
Keith Payne, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Forces Policy and current president of the National Institute for Public Policy
Brian Mazanec has produced a stellar work by creating a set of norms and then applying them across different evolutions of weapons platforms.
Jeffrey Carr, CEO of cyber security firm Taia Global, Inc., and author of Inside Cyber Warfare: Mapping the Cyber Underworld
Brian M. Mazanec
Potomac Books
An imprint of the University of Nebraska Press
2015 by the Board of Regents of the University of Nebraska
Cover image iStockphoto.com/peterhowell
Author photo courtesy of the author
All rights reserved. Potomac Books is an imprint of the University of Nebraska Press.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Mazanec, Brian M., author.
The evolution of cyber war: international norms for emerging-technology weapons / Brian M. Mazanec.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-61234-763-9 (hardback: alk. paper)
ISBN 978-1-61234-774-5 (epub)
ISBN 978-1-61234-775-2 (mobi)
ISBN 978-1-61234-776-9 (pdf)
1. Information warfare (International law) 2. Cyberspace operations (Military science) 3. CyberterrorismLaw and legislation. 4. Technological innovationsLaw and legislation. I. Title.
KZ 6718. M 39 2015
341.6'3dc23
2015008309
The publisher does not have any control over and does not assume any responsibility for author or third-party websites or their content.
To Charlotte, Reagan, Peter, and Benjamin: Thomas Paine once wrote,
If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my child may have peace.
May you live in an age of peace.
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An effort such as this is not possible without the significant support from many individuals. I would like to thank my editor at the University of Nebraska Press, Marguerite Boyles, for her support of this project and for guiding it to success.
I would also like to thank the many individuals who directly and indirectly contributed to this work, including Penney Harwell Caramia, Joe Kirschbaum, Greg Koblentz, Angelos Stavrou, Brad Thayer, Trevor Thrall, and Matt Ullengren.
Additionally, I would like to thank my parents, Dan and Polly, for their unending love and support and whose words and examples instilled in me an appreciation of the value of education.
Most important, I would like to thank my incredible wife, Abby, for her unwavering support of this undertaking. Her love, encouragement, and patience were indispensable, and her scholarly work ethic served as an inspiration throughout this project. I would also like to thank my four awesome childrenCharlotte, Reagan, Peter, and Benjaminwho sacrificed time and provided essential motivation to see this work to completion.
Any errors herein are mine. Additionally, the views expressed herein are mine and do not represent the views of any organization or entity I am affiliated with.
BBSU : British Bombing Survey Unit
BW : biological weapons
BWC : Biological Weapons Convention
CBM : confidence-building measure
CBW : chemical and biological weapons
CIA : Central Intelligence Agency
CMA : Chemical Manufacturers Association
CNA : computer network attack
CNE : computer network exploitation
CSIS : Center for Strategic and International Studies
CTBT : Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
CTBTO : Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization
CTITF : Counter-Terrorism Implementation Task Force
CW : chemical weapons
CWC : Chemical Weapons Convention
CYBERCOM : Cyber Command
DDOS : distributed denial-of-service
DOD : Department of Defense
EWI : EastWest Institute
FAS : Federation of American Scientists
GGE : group of government experts
IAEA : International Atomic Energy Agency
ICS : Industrial Control Systems
IDC : International Data Center
IMS : International Monitoring System
IP : Internet protocol
ISP : Internet service provider
ISR : intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
IT : information technology
ITU : International Telecommunication Union
LOAC : laws of armed conflict
LTBT : Limited Test Ban Treaty
NAM : nonaligned movement
NAS : National Academy of Sciences
NATO : North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NATO CCD COE : Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence
NDAA : National Defense Authorization Act
NGO : nongovernmental organization
NIC : National Intelligence Council
NNWS : nonnuclear weapon states
NPT : Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty
NRC : National Research Council
NSA : National Security Agency
OPCW : Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons
PGM : precision-guided munitions
PLA : Peoples Liberation Army (China)
PLC : programmable logic controller
PNET : Peaceful Nuclear Explosions Treaty
RAF : Royal Air Force
REVCON : review conference
RMA : revolution in military affairs
SALT : Strategic Arms Limitation Talks
SCADA : Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition
SROE : standing rules of engagement
TTBT : Threshold Test Ban Treaty
UNIDIR : United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research
USSBS : U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey
WMD : weapons of mass destruction
WPC : World Peace Council
In the conclusion of his book The History of a Crime, Victor Hugo wrote, One resists the invasion of armies; one does not resist the invasion of ideas. These permissive views were once held regarding chemical and biological weapons.
International security and U.S. national security may be enhanced by the emergence of some kind of regulative norm for cyber warfare, similar to norms that developed in the past for these other emerging-technology weapons. In March 2013 Director of National Intelligence James Clapper testified that a major cyber attack against the United States could occur as soon as in just the next two years, resulting in long-term, wide-scale disruption of services, such as a regional power outage. He further stated that the growing international use of these emerging-technology weapons to achieve strategic objectives was outpacing the development of a shared understanding or norms of behavior and thus increasing the prospects for miscalculations and escalation.weapons. To do so, it develops a norm evolution theory for emerging-technology weapons based on case studies on the evolution of norms for other emerging-technology weaponsspecifically chemical and biological weapons, strategic bombing, and nuclear weapons.
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