Irwin Redlener - Americans at Risk: Why We Are Not Prepared for Megadisasters and What We Can Do

Contents

2 The American Health-Care System: Unready for Prime Time in an Age of Megadisasters
ScenarioPandemic Avian Flu Hits New York City

3 Natural Megadisasters: Not Just Business as Usual
ScenarioEarthquake in Seattle and Puget Sound

4 Terrorism: Still Vulnerable Five Years Later
ScenarioGoing Nuclear: The Ultimate Terror Nightmare

5 The Built Environment: A Crumbling Infrastructure and High-Consequence Industrial Accidents Waiting to Happen
ScenarioA Chemical Release in a Tornado-Risk Zone

6 Special Populations, Special Needs, and Soft Targets: Why Im Worried About the Vulnerability of Americas Children
ScenarioAmerican Children as Targets of Terror

7 Barrier 1
Goals and Accountabilityor Random Acts of Preparedness?

8 Barrier 2
Failures of Imagination: Its Always in the Details

9 Barrier 3
Missing and Misplaced Leadership: Whos in Charge?

10 Barrier 4
The Strange Psychology of Preparedness and Why the Public Isnt Buying

To Jason, who lives in all of us who loved him,
to my darling grandchildren, Caleb and Mia, who will live
in this world were making, to the matriarch, Charlotte, and
to the love of my life, Karen, who makes it all possible.

Acknowledgments

This book began with a phone call in the fall of 2005, pretty much out of the blue, from Larry Weissman, who had heard me speak on television about the ongoing post-Katrina recovery and relief debacle. I had been talking about the concept of megadisasters and how the country just wasnt capable of responding to a major catastrophic event. Larry thought that concept should be a bookand I agreed. I am very grateful to Larry and his partner, Sascha Alper, for their clear understanding of what needed to happen and for their support from the beginning.

Shelley Wanger, my remarkable editor at Knopf, was incredibly helpful at every step; I cannot possibly overstate the value of her input and guidanceand patiencethroughout. Our timeline was ridiculously short and Shelley was available 24/7 from the time we met until the book was completed. Margarethe Laurenzi, my editor/organizer/researcher who worked with me on an almost daily basis, was absolutely invaluable throughout the process. Without Margarethe, this manuscript would not likely have come close to being completed by our most aggressive deadline. And I am also grateful to David Berman, my talented senior policy analyst at the National Center for Disaster Preparedness (NCDP). David coordinated the extensive research needed for this manuscript, constantly checking and rechecking assertions, facts, and sources. General ongoing administrative support was given so generously and cheerfully by Karina Ron, Shay Gines, and Damali Walker. Wil Alvarez and Dr. David Abramson, the brilliant researchers at the NCDP, provided terrific support, and, in Davids case, real insight into the terrible long-term consequences of the Gulf disaster.

Paul Bogaards and Erinn Hartman were an integral part of the Knopf team. And I am forever grateful to my friends from Dan Klores Communications for their ever crucial guidance. Sean Cassidy, Ed Tagliaferri, Jo Flattery, and the brilliant Dan Klores truly went all out to help make this happen.

My wife, Karen Redlener, who runs the Childrens Health Fund, was an essential reader of this manuscript as it was taking shape. Her insights regularly made a real difference in our perspective and approach to this very difficult topic. She had the distinct advantage of having worked as my partner for more than three decades, and therefore being very practiced in getting her always useful input across in the most effective ways. My son Michael, currently a medical student, gave helpful advice from the beginning, but plenty of moral support and encouragement also came from Neil, Eric, Gloria, Ania, Stephanie, Sheareen, Ruth, Phil, Nicole, John, David, and Judith (a keen editor). Two good friends also gave wise counsel early in the process: Jonathan Alter, senior editor at Newsweek, and NBC correspondent Fred Francis both helped me think through the focus of this work. Carol and Bobby Tannenhauser provided both ongoing personal support and very important comments on some of the early drafts. My friend Dr. Michael Kappy, who has long been urging me to write this book, served as a sounding board throughout.

To make the technical portions of the book as accurate and credible as possible, particularly the five detailed hypothetical megadisaster scenarios, I sought advice from experts who each spent time reviewing, suggesting, and conceptualizing these and other relevant parts of the manuscript. The technical experts were Frank Von Hippel, a distinguished professor at Princeton University who is well versed in the consequences of nuclear detonations; Stephen Morse, an esteemed colleague and authority on emerging infections and pandemic influenza; Tom Paulson, a senior science journalist currently at the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, who contributed significantly to the earthquake scenario; Dr. Fred Millar, an environmental scientist and expert on chemical spills; and the remarkable Christopher Farrell, director of investigations and research at Judicial Watch. Chriss input was invaluable in the chapter on children as targets of terrorism. Gavin Schmidt at the Goddard Institute of Space Studies helped clarify some of the important climatic issues for the chapter on natural disasters.

I am also grateful for the technical advice offered by former FBI investigator Tarine Fairman, Dr. Andy Garrett, and Beth Fuller. Two brilliant natural disaster experts from Columbia Universitys Earth Institute were most generous with their time and counsel: Dr. John Mutter and Dr. Art Lerner-Lam. They helped ensure that the science and critical nuances of our earthquake assertions were on target. Nationally renowned disaster preparedness expert Dr. Elin Gursky of the Anser Institute produced some of the key documents we used extensively as resource material. Similarly helpful was material written by Veronique De Rugy, a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and guidance from Dr. Kathleen Tierney, who directs the Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center at the University of Colorado. Dr. David Markenson, a nationally renowned disaster response authority, was helpful throughout. And so was Dr. Jeb Weisman, technology and communications guru, who provided sage advice on some of the most highly technical issues and always reminds me that the technology is easy, its the human aspect of communications thats the challenge.

A number of people with enormous experience relevant to this book gave very generously of their time and insights, especially former secretary of state General Colin Powell, former FEMA head James Lee Witt, and U.S Surgeon General Richard Carmona. I am grateful to each of them. And I want to thank Bill Lokey, a senior official at FEMA and one of this countrys top disaster-response professionals, for his candid insights about the challenges ahead for FEMA.

I want to acknowledge that I gained a good deal of perspective from the first secretary of homeland security, Tom Ridge. I began meeting with Tom before his appointment to the cabinet and while he was director of the Office of Homeland Security in the White House. He impressed me from the beginning as a dedicated, hardworking leader who had the courage to take on the gargantuan task of putting together the new Department of Homeland Security.