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Shirin Akiner - The Caspian: Politics, Energy and Security

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Shirin Akiner The Caspian: Politics, Energy and Security
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The Caspian redefines a Caspian debate long characterized by one-sided and politically motivated analyses and, at times, fantastic reporting. Bringing together a range of influential voices from academia, the media, the oil industry, civil service, the military and diplomatic corps, this book rewrites the regions recent history.

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Abbreviations

ACG Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli

ADB Asian Development Bank

AFP Agence France Presse

Agip KCO see KCO

AIOC Azerbaijan International Operating Company

ANS Azerbaijan News Agency

AP Associated Press

API American Petroleum Institute

b/d barrels per day

bcm billion cubic metres

BG British Gas

bl barrel(s)

BlackSeaFor Black Sea Naval Co-operation Task Group

bnbls billion barrels

BP British Petroleum

BR Baltic Republics

BSEC Black Sea Economic Co-operation Organisation

BTC Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (pipeline, company, consortium)

c/mcf US cents per thousand cubic feet

CACR Central Asia and the Caucasus Review

CEE Central and Eastern Europe

CEP Caspian Environmental Programme

CERA Cambridge Energy Research Associates

CIS Commonwealth of Independent States

CITES Convention of International Trade in Endangered Species

of Wild Fauna and Flora

CNOOC China National Offshore Oil Corporation

CNPC Chinese National Petroleum Company

CPC Caspian Pipeline Consortium

CSCE Conference for Security and Co-operation in Europe

CSRC Conflict Studies Research Centre

EAPC Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council

EBRD European Bank of Reconstruction and Development

ECO Economic Co-operation Organisation

EIA Energy Information Administration

Eni Ente Nazionale Idrocarburi

EU European Union

FBIS-CEU Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Central Eurasia

FDI foreign direct investment

FSU former Soviet Union

GUUAM Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova

ICJ International Court of Justice

IEA International Energy Agency

IMF International Monetary Fund

IMO International Maritime Organisation

INOGATE Interstate Oil and Gas Transport to Europe

IRNA Iranian state news agency

JETRO Japanese Export Trade Organisation

JICA Japan International Co-operation Agency

KCO Kazakhstan North Caspian Operating Company

LDP Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)

LNG liquified natural gas

LPG liquefied petroleum gas

m million (s)

mcf thousand cubic feet

mcm thousand cubic metres

MEED Middle East Economic Digest

MEES Middle East Economic Survey

MEP Main Export Pipeline

mt/y million tonnes per year

MVD Ministry of Interior (Russian acronym)

NBS National Bureau of Asian Research

NGO non-governmental organisation

NKR Nagorno Karabagh Republic

o.e. oil equivalent

ODA overseas development aid

OGJ Oil and Gas Journal

OIC Organisation of Islamic Conference

OIES Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

OKIOC Offshore Kazakhstan International Operating Company

OPEC Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

OSCE Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe

PEDCO PetroIran Development Company

PfP Partnership for Peace (NATO)

PKK Kurdish Workers Party

PSA Production Sharing Agreement

PSG Consortium of Bechtel Corporation and General Electric

Capital Structural Finance Group

PSO peace support operations

RFE/RL Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

RLS Radio-Location Station (Gabala, Azerbaijan)

RSFS Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic

SBPF State Border Protection Forces

SINOPEC China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation

SOCAR State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic

SOFAZ State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan

SRC Silk Road country

SSR Soviet Socialist Republic (Union Republic of the Soviet

Union)

SWG Special Working Group

TACIS Technical Assistance to the Commonwealth of

Independent States

TAP Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (pipeline)

tcf trillion cubic feet

TCGP Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline

tcm trillion cubic metres

TCO Tengiz Chevroil

TFE TotalFinaElf

TI Transparency International

TPAO Turkish State Petroleum Company

TRACECA Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia

UNGLOS United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

VTS vessel tracking system

Personal names and place names

Personal names and place names have been transliterated in accordance with common usage; where different forms are current (e.g. Nazarbaev and Nazarbayev), one of these has been adhered to throughout this work. However, with reference to the Treaty of Golestan/Gulistan, for historical reasons both forms have been retained. For the sake of consistency rather than political bias, the term Karabagh has been used in all the chapters that refer to this area, although some authors originally preferred Karabakh, or Nagorno-Karabakh. The terms Azeri and Azerbaijani are used synonymously. Also, Azerbaijan denotes both Azerbaijan SSR and (post-Soviet) Azerbaijan Republic; Kazakhstan is used for both Kazakh SSR and (post-Soviet) Republic of Kazakhstan; Turkmenistan denotes Turkmen SSR and the post-Soviet state Turkmenistan.

Map 1 The Eurasian region


Map 2 Disputed areas of the South Caspian as of 2003 Source Cambridge Energy - photo 1Map 2 Disputed areas of the South Caspian as of 2003 Source Cambridge Energy - photo 2

Map 2 Disputed areas of the South Caspian (as of 2003)

Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

Map 3 Exploration results in the Caspian region Source Cambridge Energy - photo 3

Map 3 Exploration results in the Caspian region Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

Map 4 Oil pipelines in the Caspian Source Cambridge Energy Research - photo 4

Map 4 Oil pipelines in the Caspian

Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates, updated by Shirin Akiner 2004.

Map 5 Armenian-occupied territory in Azerbaijan Map 6 Hydrogeology of the - photo 5

Map 5 Armenian-occupied territory in Azerbaijan

Map 6 Hydrogeology of the Caspian Sea Note All depths shown are approximate - photo 6

Map 6 Hydrogeology of the Caspian Sea

Note: All depths shown are approximate.

Map 7 Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan ETC pipeline route Source Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan - photo 7

Map 7 Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (ETC) pipeline route Source: Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline Company

Acknowledgements

The idea for this volume developed out of an international conference on The New Security Architecture in the Caspian Region, held at the Conflict Studies Research Centre, Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst, in 1996. This pioneering event brought together speakers from a wide range of backgrounds, drawn from Central Asia, Europe, Iran, Turkey and the US. It provoked a lively debate, leading to a fruitful exchange of ideas. The original intention was to publish the contributions to this conference. However, there were a number of factors that prevented the implementation of this project, not least the rapidly changing situation in the Caspian Sea. It seemed preferable to wait until more time had elapsed after the collapse of the Soviet Union before attempting to draw some conclusions (though even now, more than a decade after the emergence of three independent states around the Caspian littoral, any assessment must of necessity be tentative and provisional). The same idea of bringing together different perspectives has been followed in this present work, although with different contributors. Thus, in a very direct way the 1996 conference provided the inspiration as well as the impetus for this volume. Special thanks, therefore, must be given to Charles Dick, Director of the Conflict Studies Research Centre, without whose support the 1996 conference would not have taken place. Anne Aldis, likewise of the Conflict Studies Research Centre, also provided valuable help and I am very grateful to her for her input.

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