Richard Sokolsky - Nato and Caspian Security: A Mission Too Far 1999
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This report attempts to put the Caspian Basin and Central Asia into a comprehensive strategic perspective at a time when NATO is increasingly concerned with challenges on its periphery. The authors examine NATOs interests, capabilities, and constraints as well as th e salient trends and factors shaping the regional security environment. In spite of the regions potential energy riches and the jockeying for influence among major powers and oil interests, the authors suggest that NATO should see the region as a potential quagmire rather than as a vacuum waiting to be filled. The report discusses Western objectives and interests in the Caspian, internal and intraregional threats to Western interests, the competition for influence among outside powers, transnational threats, Caspian oil and energy security, and implications for NATO and Western policy and planning. The authors conclude that the West has limited interests
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National security--Caspian Sea Region, Caspian Sea Region--Defenses, North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
publication date
:
1999
lcc
:
UA853.C27S65 1999eb
ddc
:
355/.0330475
subject
:
National security--Caspian Sea Region, Caspian Sea Region--Defenses, North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Page i
The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-96-C-0001. Further informa-tion may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAE
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Sokolsky, Richard. NATO and Caspian security a mission too far? I Richard Sokolsky and Tanya Charlick-Paley. p. cm. "Prepared for the United States Air Force by RAND's Project AIR FORCE." "MR-l074-AF." Includes bibliographical references (p. ). ISBN 0-8330-2750-6 1. National sedurity-Caspian Sea Region. 2. Caspian Sea Region-Defenses. 3. North Atlantic Treaty Organization. I. Charlick-Paley, Tanya, 1968- . II. Title. III. RAND. UA853.C27S65 1999 355' .0330475-dc2l 99-31661 CIP
RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and deci-sionmaking through research and analysis. RAND is a registered trademark. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opin-ions or policies of its research sponsors.
Copyright 1999 RAND
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopy-ing, recording, or informaiion storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND.
Published 1999 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1333 H St., N.W, Washington, D.C. 20005-4707 BAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet: order@rand.org
Page ii
NATO and Caspian Security
A Mission Too Far?
Richard Soklisky Tanya Charlick-Paley
Project Air Force/ Rand
Prepared for the United States Air Force
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
Page iii
Preface
The West's growing interest in the Caspian Basin and NATO's increasing concern with challenges on its periphery raise an important question for the Atlantic Alliance as it ponders its future role, commitments, and security responsibilities: Given the nature of the West's security interests in the Caspian and Central Asia regions and the potential threats to those interests, what role should NATO play in a broader Western security strategy for the area?
A great deal of what has been written and said in the West about the Caspian has lacked perspective. Many observers of the contemporary Caspian scene have become intoxicated with the region's potential energy riches and the jockeying for influence among several major powers and international oil companies. The images that have been conjured up of a new "great game" often serve to obscure rather than clarify reality. As a result, many Western views of the Caspian over the past decade have been marked by hype and slogans rather than hard-headed analysis. This report tries to put the south Caucasus and Central Asia into a broader strategic perspective. The authors critically examine NATO's interests, priorities, capabilities and constraints, and the political, economic, cultural, and security forces shaping the regional security environment. After carefully weighing the benefits of deepening the Alliance's involvement in the region against the risks and costs, the authors suggest that NATO should see the region, in general, more as a potential quagmire than as a strategic vacuum waiting to be filled.
This study is part of a larger project on the implications of the changing strategic environment in and around Europe for the United
Page iv
States and NATO. The project was sponsored by the Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Air Force in Europe, and by the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations, Headquarters, United States Air Force. It was conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND's Project AIR FORCE. This study should be of particular interest to NATO planners, officials in the U.S. government and Western countries involved in making policy toward Central Asia and the south Caucasus, and, more broadly, anyone interested in the implications of postCold War geopolitical dynamics for U.S. military planning and operations.
Project Air Force
Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of RAND, is the United States Air Force's federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and analyses. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air and space forces. Research is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Integrative research projects, and work on modeling and simulations, are conducted on a PAF-wide basis.
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