Jonathan Barnett - Managing the Climate Crisis: Designing and Building for Floods, Heat, Drought, and Wildfire

The climate, which had been relatively stable for centuries, is well into a new and dangerous phase. In 2020, 448 deaths in the United States were caused by the weather. Events since the 2020 statistics were compiled show the dangerous trend continuing: unprecedented heat waves, extended drought in the West and Southwest, extraordinary wildfire seasons fueled by heat and drought, torrential downpours, increased coastal and river flooding.

Gases added to the atmosphere from an industrialized world are preventing more and more heat from being radiated back into space, causing global temperatures to rise and destabilizing the weather. And what is already a bad situation will become far worse. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its explanation of the physical science basis for its Sixth Assessment Report, noted that global temperatures are already higher than they have been at any time since an interglacial warm period 6,500 years ago and that the only previous warmer period occurred 125,000 years ago. The IPCC used its strongest language to date to emphasize that

Figure 1-1: This map, adapted from one published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), shows the approximate location of each of twenty-two weather and climate disasters in 2020 in which the damage was more than $1 billion. The wildfire symbol includes fires in California, Oregon, and Washington. The drought symbol stands for heat waves and drought in the central and western states.

One possible path for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in time to meet the most optimistic IPCC scenario was laid out in a 2017 book edited by Paul Hawken, Drawdown: The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reverse Global Warming. A second version, The Drawdown Review, was issued by Project Drawdown, an organization formed to promote these proposals. Drawdown is the point where greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are brought under control and concentrations begin to decrease.

Reaching drawdown is the most urgent issue facing the entire planet. It will require unprecedented international cooperation. But while these negotiations take place, and while every country takes steps to meet its own share of the necessary changes, the United States must also confront and deal with the certainty of increasing dangers from the changing climate for at least the next thirty years. In addition to risks to life and property, there are risks for the entire system of governmental and private finance. Costs for fighting floods and wildfires go up every year, and losses from crop failures are increasing. Extreme heat and unexpectedly cold weather are putting stress on infrastructure not designed for such temperatures. Insurance rates are going up, and government subsidies for insurance are running out. As people migrate away from vulnerable places, exposure to risk reduces property values for those remaining, causing economic uncertainty and anguish to families and reducing the property tax base, which in turn will have a negative effect on bond ratings. The viability of whole cities and towns could be at risk. Falling property values also undermine the stability of mortgages held by banks or incorporated in securities. Major property investors will withdraw money from places where the future seems uncertain. These factors could cause a national financial crisis even before the worst of the physical dangers begin.

The urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions should not distract us from the equally urgent need to protect the country from what will be happening until emissions can be controlled.

This book is about what we can do to manage these immediate challenges. The crisis is global, but dealing with its effects successfully depends on local conditions, which is why we focus on prototypical issues in the United States, usually the contiguous forty-eight states, adding the necessary information about Alaska, Hawaii, and the territories when it is available.

Decisions about development and construction should be made with climate considerations in mind, beginning immediately. Decisions about development that do not consider the effects of inevitable changes in the climate make the eventual costs of adaptation higher and the adjustments that people will have to make more difficult. Our research has shown us that timely preventive actions are well within the countrys financial capacity if they are planned and budgeted in advance and implemented incrementally as they are needed. Managing the climate crisis will be far less expensive than recovering from recurring disasters and the physical and financial risks of continued inaction.