Desmond Ball - The Transformation of Security in the Asia/Pacific Region

THE TRANSFORMATION
OF SECURITY IN THE
ASIA/PACIFIC REGION

DESMOND BALL

First published in 1996 in Great Britain by
FRANK CASS & CO. LTD.
2 Park Square, Milton Park,
Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN

and in the United States of America by
FRANK CASS
270 Madison Ave,
New York NY 10016

Transferred to Digital Printing 2005

Copyright 1996 Frank Cass & Co. Ltd.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

The transformationof security in the Asia/Pacific region / edited by
Desmond Ball.
p. cm.
this group of studies first appeared in a Special issue on The
transformation of security in the Asia/Pacific Region of The Journal
of strategic studies, vol.18, no.3--T.p. verso.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-7146-4661-X (cloth).--ISBN 0-7146-4190-1 (paper)
1. National security--East Asia. 2. National security--Asia,
Southeastern. 3. Arms race--East Asia. 4. Arms race--Asia,
Southeastern. 5. United States--Armed Forces--East Asia. 6. United
States--Armed Forces--Asia, Southeastern. 7. East Asia--Economic
conditions. 8. Asia, Southeastern--Economic conditions. I. Ball,
Desmond.
UA832.5.T73 1995 95-20638
355'0335--dc20 CIP

This group of studies first appeared in a Special Issue on
The Transformation of Security in the Asia/Pacific Region
of The Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 18, No. 3
(Sept. 1995) published by Frank Cass & Co. Ltd.

Typeset by Frank Cass and Company Limited

DESMOND BALL

The security architecture of the Asia/Pacific region is in the process of profound transformation, partly occasioned by the end of the Cold War and partly due to the dynamic economic developments in East and Southeast Asia. Economic factors, and most especially the extraordinary rates of economic growth and the high degree of economic interdependence, are changing both the structure of security relations and the systemic tendencies towards conflict or peace in the region. Economic factors have also generated new or at least more engaging security concerns. For many countries in the region, economic vitality is dependent upon relatively long and sometimes quite vulnerable sea lines of communication (SLOCs). The extraordinary economic growth is providing increased resources for allocation to defence programmes, raising the prospect of a regional arms race. And there are concerns that the high degree of interdependence can serve as a transmission belt for spreading security problems through the region, and more particularly, that if growth falters, or if conflict is introduced into the system (for example, through confrontation between the US and Japan), that friction and disputation are likely to quickly permeate the region.

The ending of the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the fundamental transformation in global and regional strategic circumstances ensuing from the elimination of the superpower competition has generally been welcomed throughout the Asia/Pacific region. However, it has also generated new and sometimes potentially very disturbing security issues. The regional security environment is now much more complex and uncertain than that which obtained during the Cold War. There are now more major actors on the stage in particular, Japan, China and, over the longer term, India. There are numerous issues of disputation, involving competing territorial claims and challenges to governmental legitimacy, some of which could potentially escalate to major regional conflict. Most countries in the region have determined to enhance their defence self-reliance to enable them to better deal with regional contingencies on the basis of their own resources. Many countries are engaged in substantial defence build-ups, involving the acquisition of advanced maritime and air defence capabilities. Several are acquiring some particular new technologies (such as ballistic missiles) or weapons of mass destruction (such as nuclear or chemical weapons) which are extremely disturbing.

Unfortunately, however, there is a dearth of conceptual tools for comprehending this profound transformation. Most of the literature on systemic change in international relations is based on the experience of the European state system or the bipolar deterrence system of the Cold War period. Hans Morgenthau reckoned that international relations theory should allow scholars to trace the different tendencies that, as potentialities, are inherent in a certain international situation, point out the different conditions that make it more likely for one tendency to prevail than for another and, finally, assess the probabilities for the different conditions and tendencies to prevail in actuality.1 However, most of the theoretical studies in international relations are too contested to sustain much confidence in their probabilities. And as John Lewis Gaddis shows in his examination of the ability of international relations theory to foresee the abrupt end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union whether realist, behavioural, structural or evolutionary theory it was a complete failure.2

In any event, the principal organizing concepts, theories of international relations, strategic analyses, and explorations of systemic change and of the role of war in those dynamics are not informed of the quite different security concepts, traditions and processes that obtain in the Asia/Pacific security environment.3 In their contribution to this volume, Nicola Baker and Leonard C. Sebastian examine two key concepts of Western strategic studies the balance of power and the security dilemma. They show that the assumptions of balance of power theory in the European state system have no resonance in Asia; and that the security concerns have related more to internal issues (such as political stability, economic growth and social cohesion) than to external antagonisms that inform the security dilemma. The defence build-up in the region can only be understood in terms of Asian concepts of security, perceptions and strategic requirements that are not acknowledged in arms race theory. They conclude with a warning against parachuting, or the importation of Western concepts into the region, and an admonition to scholars to appreciate the distinctive (and disparate) security perceptions and objectives of the Asia/Pacific region. It is a challenge which is taken up in the subsequent contributions to this volume.

It is clear that the most important determinants of the emerging security architecture in the Asia/Pacific region are economic factors, especially the high rates of economic growth and the high levels of economic interdependence. Again, however, as Stuart Harris has noted, there is no comprehensive theory that links economic factors with security questions.4 In his contribution to this volume, Harris discusses the two principal theoretical approaches to these links (commonly, if misleadingly, termed