The International Institute for Strategic Studies
Arundel House | 6 Temple Place | London | WC2R 2PG | UK
First published September 2021 by Routledge
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for The International Institute for Strategic Studies
Arundel House, 6 Temple Place, London, WC2R 2PG, UK
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2021 The International Institute for Strategic Studies
DIRECTOR-GENERAL AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE Dr John Chipman
SERIES EDITOR Dr Benjamin Rhode
EDITOR Dr Jeffrey Mazo
ASSISTANT EDITOR Michael Marsden
EDITORIAL Vivien Antwi, Nick Fargher, Jill Lally
PRODUCTION Kelly Verity
COVER ARTWORK John Buck
The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent centre for research, information and debate on the problems of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an important military content. The Council and Staff of the Institute are international and its membership is drawn from almost 100 countries. The Institute is independent and it alone decides what activities to conduct. It owes no allegiance to any government, any group of governments or any political or other organisation. The IISS stresses rigorous research with a forward-looking policy orientation and places particular emphasis on bringing new perspectives to the strategic debate.
The Institutes publications are designed to meet the needs of a wider audience than its own membership and are available on subscription, by mail order and in good bookshops. Further details at www.iiss.org.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
ADELPHI series
ISSN 1944-5571
ADELPHI 478480
ISBN 978-1-032-18736-5
Professor Desmond Ball was Special Professor in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, having been head of the centre from 1984 to 1991. He was the author of more than 40 books or monographs on technical intelligence subjects, nuclear strategy, Australian defence and security in the Asia-Pacific region. Professor Ball served on the Council of the IISS from 1994 until 2000 and was Co-chair of the Steering Committee of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific from 2000 until 2002. He was appointed Officer of the Order of Australia (AO) in 2014 prior to his passing in October 2016.
Dr Lucie Braud-Sudreau is Director of the Arms and Military Expenditure Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Her research interests focus on European and Asian arms trade, military spending and the arms industry. She was previously a Research Fellow for Defence Economics and Procurements at the IISS and an analyst at the French Ministry of Armed Forces.
Dr Tim Huxley was Executive Director of IISSAsia until April 2021, where he played a leading role in organising the annual IISS Shangri-La Dialogue and the IISS Fullerton Forum, leading IISS research on the Asia-Pacific and editing the annual IISS Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment. Dr Huxley has worked for many years in the overlap between strategic studies and Asian area studies. His research and writing focus particularly on Southeast Asian states security and defence policies, and the security roles of the major powers in the Asia-Pacific region. He was awarded an OBE for services to security in Asia in the UKs 2021 New Year Honours.
Professor C. Raja Mohan is Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, and is one of Indias leading foreign-policy commentators. He was previously Professor of South Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, and at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Professor Mohan has also been associated with a number of think tanks in New Delhi and was the founding Director of Carnegie India. He writes a regular column for the Indian Express and was previously the Strategic Affairs Editor for the Hindu newspaper.
Professor Brendan Taylor is Professor of Strategic Studies at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, having been head of the centre from 201116. He is a specialist on great-power strategic relations in the Asia-Pacific, East Asian flashpoints and Asian security architecture. He is the author or editor of 12 books, including The Four Flashpoints: How Asia Goes to War (Black Inc., 2018) and Dangerous Decade: Taiwans Security and Crisis Management (IISS, 2019).
This Adelphi book was initially conceived as part of a project funded by the MacArthur Foundation by Adam Ward, former Director of Studies at the IISS. The authors express their gratitude to Adam for his role in the project.
Immense thanks are also due to the editor of the Adelphi series, Benjamin Rhode, for his forbearance and support while we were completing the book, and to Jeffrey Mazo for his extremely thoughtful edit of the manuscript.
Bradley Wood from the Australian National University provided valuable research assistance.
A major factor that complicated completion was the October 2016 passing of one of the original co-authors, Desmond Ball, after a courageous and lengthy battle with cancer. It was one of Dess dying wishes to see this book published. We are thus particularly grateful to Dess family Annabel, Katie, Matthew and James for giving us their permission to publish his essential contributions posthumously. We hope that we have done justice in our own contributions to Dess impeccably high scholarly standards. His life and work remain an inspiration and this book is dedicated to his memory.
Lucie Braud-Sudreau, Tim Huxley, C. Raja Mohan and Brendan Taylor Stockholm, Singapore and Canberra, March 2021
