Richard Heinberg - Snake Oil: How Frackings False Promise of Plenty Imperils Our Future

Praise for Snake Oil

Those who think fracked gas is a panacea for our energy future would do well to read this cautionary accountit has an undeniable whiff of reality about it.

Bill McKibben, founder of 350.org and author of Oil and Honey: The Education of an Unlikely Activist

Many long-time observers of the world energy scene have been wondering whether claims being made for US shale gas and tight oil are too good to be true. Here is hard evidence that they are indeed. America will achieve real, long-term energy independence and security only by doing two things: reducing energy demand and developing distributed renewable energy sources.

Michael Klare, Director of Five College Program in Peace and World Security Studies at Hampshire College, author of The Race for Whats Left

Snake Oil exposes the unsustainable economics behind the so-called fracking boom, giving the lie to industry claims that natural gas will bring great economic benefits and long-term energy security to the United States. In clear, hard-hitting language, Heinberg reveals that communities where fracking has taken place are actually being hurt economically. For those who want to know the truth about why natural gas is a gangplank, not a bridge, Snake Oil is a must-read.

Michael Brune, Executive Director of the Sierra Club and author of Coming Clean

Unconventional production from shales has been hyped mercilessly by the oil and gas industry. Richard Heinberg does an outstanding job of purging the myths and bringing sensibility to a dialogue which, unfortunately, has been driven by a brand of thinking on the part of energy producers that closely mimics the mentality of Wall Street.

Deborah Rogers, founder of Energy Policy Forum, former Wall Street financial analyst

We are already living with the false promise that fracking would not harm the environment. Now read the facts about the false promise that it will provide an energy-secure future and lots of jobs. Snake Oil debunks all the myths. It is a must-read for our elected leaders.

Maude Barlow, Board Chair of Food & Water Watch and author of Blue Covenant

It always sounded too good to be true... Richard Heinberg authoritatively explains the fine print beneath the hypesure enough, fracking is the 21st-century version of snake oil. The real deal is energy efficiency along with solar and wind power. Its time for a sober and honest debate about our energy future. Thats why Snake Oil is essential reading.

David W. Orr, Paul Sears Distinguished Professor of Environmental Studies and Politics at Oberlin College, author of Down to the Wire

In Snake Oil , Richard Heinberg reveals two key themes everyone should understand: The promise of shale oil and gas abundance is exaggerated and misleading, and the cost of producing the shale oil supply has reached a level that is inconsistent with economic growth.

Arthur Berman, consulting geologist and Director of Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

The shale revolution might be over sooner than you think. Snake Oil does what the mainstream media have failed to do: ask the tough questionsparticularly about the economicsand closely examine the real potential of fracking for oil and gas. This book is an important counterpoint to what has been little more than regurgitated industry press releases thus far and is an essential read for investors and policy makers.

Chris Nelder, energy analyst and author of Profit from the Peak

When some things are too hard or painful to understand, it takes a heroic effort to even try to get a message across. Richard Heinberg is a beacon of light cutting through the fog of wishful thinking to illuminate the critical issues by which the human project may stand or fall: energy and economy.

James Howard Kunstler, author of Too Much Magic and The Long Emergency

SNAKE OIL

How Fracking's False Promise of Plenty Imperils Our Future

Richard Heinberg

Copyright 2013 by Richard Heinberg
All rights reserved.

No part of this book may be transmitted or reproduced in any form by any means without permission in writing from the publisher.

Cover design by Luke Massman-Johnson
Cover photo of bottle copyright iStockphoto / Lebazele
Snake head illustration copyright Moustyk / Dreamstime.com

Printed in the United States of America
First printing July 2013
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

ISBN-13: 978-0976751090
ISBN-10: 0976751097

Post Carbon Institute
613 Fourth Street, Suite 208
Santa Rosa, CA 95404
(707) 823-8700
www.postcarbon.org

This book is dedicated to those activists working to create an energy system where people, places, and the future matter.

Contents

Peak Oil: What the Fuss Is About

Okay, When?

It Gets Worse

Making Sense of History as We Live It

Depletionist Economics

A Brief History of Fracking

How to Frack a Shale Gas (or Tight Oil) Well

The Shale Gas Boom, Play by Play

Tight Oil by the Numbers

The Claims Rush

The Boom That Fizzled

Shale Gas: The Evidence Is In

Bakken Boom, Bakken Bust

Will the Rest of the World Get Fracked?

Why Do Official Agencies So Often Get It Wrong?

The Bottom Line on Frackings Potential to Revolutionize Oil and Gas Production

Water

Air

Land

Climate

Communities

The Nation

The Oil and Gas Industry

Wall Street

Other Unconventional Hydrocarbons

Geology versus Technology

Renewable Energy

Energy Scenarios

A Mirage Distracts Us from Hydrocarbon Rehab

Acknowledgments

T his book relies heavily on the research of many scientists, analysts, and activists. I owe a debt of gratitude first and foremost to my colleague David Hughes, upon whose research much of this book is based, along with Deborah Rogers and Art Berman.

The quick development of such a time-sensitive book was made possible by a community engagement model of publishing. Thanks to the many generous individuals who participated as benefactors and real-time editors. Special thanks to our Snake Charmers: Ed Adamthwaite, Ruben Bakker, Diane Blust, Brian Bucktin, Clinton Callahan of nextculture.org, Clare Conry, Leonard Edmondson, David J. Fleming, Greg Fox, Felipe Garcia, Peter Gendel, Christopher Gerwin, John B. Howe, Leo Immonen, Kelly Kellogg, John Kretsinger, Richard Larson, Gary Marshall, Chris May, Stephen Miller, Dan Miner, Charles W. Nuckolls, John Parry, Markus Schellenberg, Dennis Schulinck, Richard Seymour, Patti Michelle Sheaffer, Edgar Shepherd, Gary H. Stroy, Nathan Surendran, Jeffrey Tomasi, Richard Turcotte, David Watters, and Matt Wilson. Thanks also to the over three hundred sponsors who joined our Merry Band of Editors and provided critical feedback on early drafts; their names are listed at the back of this book.

Many thanks to our lightning-fast production team: Girl Friday Productions, cover artist Luke Massman-Johnson, map designer John Van Hoesen, and research assistant Chris Takahashi. And words of appreciation are in order for Tod Brilliant, for having the initial idea for a new and unique publication model and making it happen; Daniel Lerch, for shepherding the book through our independent publishing process; and Asher Miller, for his editorial suggestions and overall project coordination.

Finally, sincere thanks as always to PJ and LH for their constant and generous support.

Introduction

A Front-Row Seat at the Peak Oil Games

F or the past decade Ive been a participant in a high-stakes energy policy debatewriting books, giving lectures, and appearing on radio and television to point out how downright dumb it is for America to continue relying on fossil fuels. Oil, coal, and natural gas are finite and depleting, and burning them changes Earths climate and compromises our future, so you might think that curtailing their use would be simple common sense. But there are major players in the debate who want to keep us burning more.