Brandon Valeriano - Becoming Rivals: The Process of Interstate Rivalry Development

We know that rivalries are a leading source of international conflict, and we know a great deal about the dynamics and consequences of international rivalries, but we know little about how international rivalries begin. Until now. In its exploration of the conditions and processes through which rivalries emerge, Becoming Rivals fills a glaring gap in our knowledge and makes an important contribution to the study of international conflict.

Jack S. Levy, Rutgers University

Becoming Rivals tackles a theoretically important and understudied topicthe factors that increase the likelihood that two states will become rivals. This is a highly original study with new data and a theoretical analysis that increases our knowledge of interstate conflict. Scholars and students in political science and history interested in rivalry will find it a must read.

John A. Vasquez, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Rivalries are a fundamental aspect of all international interactions. The concept of rivalry suggests that historic animosity may be the most fundamental variable in explaining and understanding why states commit international violence against each other. By understanding the historic factors behind the emergence of rivalry, the strategies employed by states to deal with potential threats, and the issues endemic to enemies, this book seeks to understand and predict why states become rivals.

The recent increase in the quantitative study of rivalry has largely identified who the rivals are, but not how they form and escalate. Questions about the escalation of rivalry are important if we are to understand the nature of conflictual interactions. This book addresses an important research gap in the field by directly tackling the question of rivalry formation. In addition to making new contributions to the literature, this book summarizes a cohesive model of how all interstate rivalries form by using both quantitative and qualitative methods and sources.

Brandon Valeriano is Lecturer at the School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Glasgow.

Foreign Policy Analysis

DOUGLAS A. VAN BELLE, Series editor

The Routledge series Foreign Policy Analysis examines the intersection of domestic and international politics with an emphasis on decision-making at both the individual and group levels. Research in this broadly defined and interdisciplinary field includes nearly all methodological approaches, encompasses the analysis of single nations as well as large-N comparative studies, and ranges from the psychology of leaders, to the effects of process, to the patterns created by specific dynamic or contextual influences on decision making.

The Unilateralist Temptation in
American Foreign Policy
David G. Skidmore II

When Things Go Wrong
Foreign Policy Decision Making under Adverse Feedback
Charles F. Hermann

Prospect Theory and Foreign Policy
Analysis in the Asia Pacific
Rational Leaders and Risky Behavior
Kai He and Huiyun Feng

Becoming Rivals
The Process of Interstate Rivalry Development
Brandon Valeriano

Brandon Valeriano

First published 2013
by Routledge
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Simultaneously published in the UK
by Routledge
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Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group,
an informa business

2013 Taylor & Francis

The right of Brandon Valeriano to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Valeriano, Brandon.
Becoming rivals : the process of interstate rivalry development /
Brandon Valeriano.
p. cm. (Foreign policy analysis)
1. Balance of power. 2. International relations. I. Title.
JZ1313.V35 2012
327.112dc23
2012030835

ISBN13: 978-0-415-53753-7 (hbk)
ISBN13: 978-0-203-10356-2 (ebk)

Typeset in Sabon
by IBT Global.

Printed and bound in the United States of America on sustainably sourced paper by IBT Global.

Dedicated to My Parents, Gil and Susan Valeriano

We seldom refer to linkage politics anymore. Many, if not most of the studies that we think of as part of a Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) research program could use the term and refer back to those early studies from the 1960s but rarely do. It's a shame in many ways because often if we made the linkages between domestic and international a little more explicit, and put a little more effort into exploring how they shape foreign policy we would probably see a fair bit more progress. It is also likely that invoking the conceptual frameworks of linkage politics would help FPA scholars communicate more effectively with scholars working with other theoretical perspectives or engage with topics that are seldom considered as part of the FPA rubric. Becoming Rivals is a case in point, and as the Foreign Policy Analysis series editor I considered (but decided not to) insisting that this study should be reframed and presented in terms of linkage politics.

In the end I decided to approve the manuscript without asking for any significant changes to the presentation and there were two simple but compelling pragmatic reasons for doing so. First, the language of the rivalry literature is heavily imbued with power-politics focused empirical social science terminology and concept presentations that quickly become unwieldy if you put too much effort into translating them into a discussion that prioritizes the mechanisms and forces linking the international and domestic levels of politics.

Second, I decided that I could get the best of both worlds by leaving the manuscript in the language of the rivalry literature and simply drawing attention to the linkage politics here in the Foreword. Scholars of rivalry will see what they find familiar and will be encouraged to add a linkage politics dimension to their thinking. Those more fully immersed in the FPA perspective can read this from the linkage politics foundation that pervades so much of that sub-field and find the same value had I insisted on reframing the presentation.

In the end, this book adds a critical new dimension to our understanding of rivalry because it adds the linkage politics perspectives that are needed to start engaging the emergence of rivalries. Existing or enduring rivalries seldom make sense from a purely rational, international politics perspective and their beginnings are even harder to fathom by focusing on alliances, power, and threats in the international system. It is only as the domestic political side of the equation is brought to bear that we really see that it makes sense for the leaders to engage in rivalries even if it does not make sense for the country as a whole. As Valeriano notes at the beginning of the book, conflicts that grow into rivalries have a foundation in the domestic national psyche that appears to trap leaders in the rivalry. This comes to the fore in the latter stages of the book and makes for some interesting analysis.