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Alejandro Quiroz Flores - Ministerial Survival During Political and Cabinet Change: Foreign Affairs, Diplomacy and War

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Alejandro Quiroz Flores Ministerial Survival During Political and Cabinet Change: Foreign Affairs, Diplomacy and War
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Political leaders need ministers to help them rule and so conventional wisdom suggests that leaders appoint competent ministers to their cabinet.

This book shows this is not necessarily the case. It examines the conditions that facilitate survival in ministerial office and how they are linked to ministerial competence, the political survival of heads of government and the nature of political institutions. Presenting a formal theory of political survival in the cabinet, it systematically analyses the tenure in office of more than 7,300 ministers of foreign affairs covering more than 180 countries spanning the years 1696-2004. In doing so, it sheds light not only on studies of ministerial change but also on diplomacy, the occurrence of war, and the democratic peace in international relations.

This text will be of key interest to students of comparative executive government, comparative foreign policy, political elites, and more broadly to comparative politics, political economy, political history and international relations.

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First published 2017
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

and by Routledge
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

2017 Alejandro Quiroz Flores

The right of Alejandro Quiroz Flores to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
A catalog record for this book has been requested

ISBN: 978-1-138-19364-2 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-315-63924-6 (ebk)

Typeset in Times New Roman
by Apex CoVantage, LLC

This book is founded on my doctoral work at New York University The idea first - photo 1

This book is founded on my doctoral work at New York University. The idea first emerged during a PhD seminar led by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, who would later become my PhD supervisors. At that particular time, it occurred to me that the argument in The Logic of Political Survival (Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003) could and should be extended to cabinet ministers. Over the years, I worked closely with Bruce and Alastair in order to develop the theory and collect the relevant data to test my hypotheses.

As I made progress and collected data, I published an article in Foreign Policy Analysis in 2009 that presents an empirical analysis that served as a stepping stone to the more sophisticated econometric analysis of this book. In addition, Alastair and I published a game theory model of cabinet change and political survival in Economics and Politics in 2011. is an extended version of this article, although the text here differs significantly from the article version, as it elaborates on a number of issues and presents more examples that illustrate the intuition of the model.

As I completed the dissertation and became an assistant professor at the University of Essex, I started to collaborate with a network of researchers interested in political elites the Selection and Deselection of Political Elites (SEDEPE) network and particularly with Keith Dowding and Patrick Dumont. Keith and Patrick first invited me to write a chapter about the cabinet in the US for their recent edited book The Selection of Ministers Around the World (2015), which complements their edited volume on The Selection of Ministers in Europe. Hiring and Firing (2009). Together, these two volumes have put together the largest set of recent work on ministerial politics. A significant proportion of the research presented in this book is informed by the studies developed by the SEDEPE network and my interaction with them.

Alejandro Quiroz Flores
March 2016
Colchester, United Kingdom

Routledge Research on Social and Political Elites

Edited by Keith Dowding

Australian National University

and

Patrick Dumont

University of Luxembourg

Who are the elites that run the world? This series of books analyses who the elites are, how they rise and fall, the networks in which they operate and the effects they have on our lives.

1 Coalition Government and Party Mandate

How coalition agreements constrain ministerial action

Catherine Moury

2 The Selection of Ministers in Europe

Hiring and firing

Edited by Keith Dowding and Patrick Dumont

3 Parliamentary Elites in Central and Eastern Europe

Recruitment and representation

Edited by Elena Semenova, Michael Edinger and Heinrich Best

4 The Selection of Political Party Leaders in Contemporary Parliamentary Democracies

A comparative study

Edited by Jean-Benoit Pilet and William P. Cross

5 The Selection of Ministers around the World

Edited by Keith Dowding and Patrick Dumont

6 Party Members and Activists

Edited by Emilie van Haute and Anika Gauja

7 Political Representation

Roles, representatives and the represented

Edited by Marc Bhlmann and Jan Fivaz

8 Ministerial Survival During Political and Cabinet Change

Foreign affairs, diplomacy and war

Alejandro Quiroz Flores

Contents

The first set of acknowledgments goes to my former supervisors Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith. Bruce and Alastair inspired me to explore new questions on political survival that continue to drive my current research agenda as a senior lecturer. I am very grateful to Bruce and Alastair for their guidance, unparalleled support, and friendship throughout these years.

I am also thankful to the other members of my research committee at NYU. Neal Beck provided great suggestions on the empirical sections of the project as well as unique training during my years in New York. I am also thankful to the late George Downs, as well as Mike Gilligan, who also trained me during my PhD and served as members of the committee.

This book could not have been written without the encouragement and patience of Keith Dowding and Patrick Dumont. Keith and Patrick read my dissertation and invited me to turn it into a book. They provided guidance and many detailed comments and suggestions over the last few years that strengthened the overall project and made it more relevant and easier to read.

I also want to thank several anonymous reviewers who gave me very useful feedback and suggested how to improve the book. Any weaknesses found in the pages that follow are my responsibility.

Over the years, many friends and colleagues in universities in the United States and Europe provided encouragement in multiple ways, both professional and personal. I have also presented my work in conferences, workshops, and universities that are too many to list here. I am grateful for all the invitations and feedback that I have received over these years.

On a personal note, my brothers have been a constant source of motivation and humor, and for that I am very thankful. My new niece Renata has given me much happiness.

My wife Barbara Czarnecka is often curious about my research and always patient about the long hours I devote to my work. I could not have completed this manuscript without her support. This book is dedicated to her and to our new baby, Alex.

Adler, J. (1960) Water rights and cabinet shuffles: How Claus Spreckels Hawaiian career began, Business History Review , 34: 5063.

Alderman, R. K. and Cross, J. A. (1987) The timing of cabinet reshuffles, Parliamentary Affairs , 40: 119.

Andrews, D.W.K. and Fair, R. C. (1988) Inference in nonlinear econometric models with structural change, Review of Economic Studies , 55: 615639.

Anene, J. N. (1997) Military administrative behavior and democratization: Civilian cabinet appointments in military regimes in sub-Saharan Africa, Journal of Public Policy , 17: 6380.

Arendt, H. (1963) Eichmann in Jerusalem: A Report on the Banality of Evil , New York: Viking Press.

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