Jared M. Diamond - Collapse: how societies choose to fail or succeed

VIKING

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First published in 2005 by Viking Penguin, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc.

13579 10 8642

Copyright Jared Diamond, 2005 All rights reserved

Maps by Jeffrey L. Ward

LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING IN PUBLICATION DATA

Diamond, Jared M.

Collapse: how societies choose to fail or succeed/Jared Diamond.

p. cm.

Includes index.

ISBN 0-670-03337-5

1. Social history Case studies. 2. Social changeCase studies. 3. Environmental policy

Case studies. I. Title.

HN13. D5 2005

304.2'8 dc22 2004057152

This book is printed on acid-free paper. 8

Printed in the United States of America

Set in Minion

Designed by Francesca Belanger

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To

Jack and Ann Hirschy,

Jill Hirschy Eliel and John Eliel,

Joyce Hirschy McDowell,

Dick (1929-2003) and Margy Hirschy,

and their fellow Montanans:

guardians of Montana's big sky

I met a traveler from an antique land Who said: "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand, Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown, And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command, Tell that its sculptor well those passions read, Which yet survive, stampt on these lifeless things, The hand that mockt them and the heart that fed: And on the pedestal these words appear: 'My name is Ozymandias, king of kings: Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!' Nothing beside remains. Round the decay Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare The lone and level sands stretch far away."

"Ozymandias," by Percy Bysshe Shelley (1817)

CONTENTS

List of Maps xiu

Prologue: A Tale of Two Farms

Two farms Collapses, past and present Vanished Edens? A five-point framework Businesses and the environment The comparative method Plan of the book

PartOne: MODERN MONTANA

Chapter 1: Under Montana's Big Sky

Stan Falkow's story Montana and me Why begin with Montana? Montana's economic history Mining Forests Soil Water Native and non-native species Differing visions Attitudes towards regulation Rick Laible's story Chip Pigman's story Tim Huls's story John Cook's story Montana, model of the world *

PartTwo: PAST SOCIETIES

Chapter 2: Twilight at Easter

The quarry's mysteries Easter's geography and history People and food * Chiefs, clans, and commoners Platforms and statues Carving, transporting, erecting The vanished forest Consequences for society Europeans and explanations Why was Easter fragile? Easter as metaphor

Chapter 3: The Last People Alive: Pitcairn and Henderson Islands 120

Pitcairn before the Bounty Three dissimilar islands Trade The movie's ending *

Chapter 4: The Ancient Ones: The Anasazi and Their Neighbors

Desert farmers Tree rings * Agricultural strategies * Chaco's problems and packrats Regional integration Chaco's decline and end * Chaco's message

X

Contents

Chapter 5: The Maya Collapses

Mysteries of lost cities The Maya environment Maya agriculture Maya history Copan * Complexities of collapses Wars and droughts Collapse in the southern lowlands The Maya message

Chapter 6: The Viking Prelude and Fugues

Experiments in the Atlantic The Viking explosion Autocatalysis Viking agriculture Iron Viking chiefs Viking religion Orkneys, Shetlands, Faeroes Iceland's environment Iceland's history Iceland in context Vinland

Chapter 7: Norse Greenland's Flowering

Europe's outpost Greenland's climate today Climate in the past Native plants and animals Norse settlement Farming Hunting and fishing An integrated economy Society Trade with Europe * Self-image

Chapter 8: Norse Greenland's End

Introduction to the end Deforestation Soil and turf damage The Inuit's predecessors Inuit subsistence Inuit/Norse relations * The end Ultimate causes of the end

Chapter 9: Opposite Paths to Success

Bottom up, top down New Guinea highlands Tikopia Tokugawa problems Tokugawa solutions Why Japan succeeded Other successes

Part Three: MODERN SOCIETIES

Chapter 10: Malthus in Africa: Rwanda's Genocide

A dilemma Events in Rwanda * More than ethnic hatred Buildup in Kanama Explosion in Kanama Why it happened

Chapter 11: One Island, Two Peoples, Two Histories:

The Dominican Republic and Haiti

Differences * Histories Causes of divergence * Dominican environmental impacts Balaguer The Dominican environment today The future

Contents xi

Chapter 12: China, Lurching Giant

China's significance Background Air, water, soil Habitat, species, megaprojects Consequences Connections The future

Chapter 13: "Mining" Australia

Australia's significance * Soils Water Distance Early history E Imported values Trade and immigration Land degradation Other environmental problems Signs of hope and change

Part Four: PRACTICAL LESSONS

Chapter 14: Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous

Decisions?

Road map for success Failure to anticipate Failure to perceive Rational bad behavior Disastrous values Other irrational failures Unsuccessful solutions Signs of hope

Chapter 15: Big Businesses and the Environment:

Different Conditions, Different Outcomes

Resource extraction Two oil fields Oil company motives Hardrock mining operations * Mining company motives Differences among mining companies The logging industry Forest Stewardship Council The seafood industry Businesses and the public

Chapter 16: The World as a Polder: What Does It All Mean

to Us Today?

Introduction The most serious problems If we don't solve them ... Life in Los Angeles One-liner objections The past and the present Reasons for hope

Acknowledgments

Further Readings

Index ' 561

Illustration Credits

LIST OF MAPS

The World: Prehistoric, Historic, and Modern Societies 4-5

Contemporary Montana

The Pacific Ocean, the Pitcairn Islands, and Easter Island 84-85

The Pitcairn Islands

Anasazi Sites

Maya Sites

The Viking Expansion 182-183