Bremmer Ian - Whats next : essays on geopolitics that matter

CONTENTS

by Klaus Schwab

by Ian Bremmer and Douglas Rediker

Euro Zone: Can Euro-economics Survive Euro-politics?

By Antonio Barroso

International Management of Europes Financial Crisis: The Role of the Troika

By David Gordon and Douglas Rediker

Watching the Russian Wildcard

By Dmitri Trenin

The Arab Awakening: What Its Really All About

By Nader Mousavizadeh

Divergence: Leading Emerging Markets Are Headed in Different Directions

By Alexander Kliment and Christopher Garman

Asia Enters the Rapids: A Volatile Moment in a Crucial Region

By Ian Bremmer and Willis Sparks

Doubling Down on Economic Statecraft: Whats at Stake for the United States and the World America Built?

By Jennifer Harris

Afghanistan: Yet Again a Grave Geopolitical Risk?

By Nasim Zehra

A Perfect Storm for Global Governance: The Rise of Regionalism and Regional Institutions

By the Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk

Also by

Ian Bremmer

EVERY NATION FOR ITSELF:

Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World

THE END OF THE FREE MARKET:

Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations?

THE FAT TAIL:

The Power of Political Knowledge in an Uncertain World

(with Preston Keat)

THE J CURVE:

A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall

WHATS

NEXT

Essays on

Geopolitics That Matter

Edited by

Ian Bremmer and Douglas Rediker

Foreword by

Klaus Schwab

A PENGUIN SPECIAL
FROM PORTFOLIO

ABOUT THE BOOK

In the last four years, the world has suffered a financial market meltdown and subsequent global recession. The eurozone crisis looms, the Middle East is in turmoil, and a shifting power balance between emerging markets and developed economies is reordering the global economy as a whole. Political and economic challenges intertwine now more than ever before, as the demands of local politics and global business grow increasingly complex and begin to conflict in new ways. Facing these new challenges, what will the future hold?

In Whats Next, Ian Bremmer and Douglas Rediker, together with experts, analysts, and many of their colleagues from the World Economic Forums Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk, analyze these global issues and provide a template to understand how they will change our world in the next few years. Focusing in on the most volatile, powerful, or misunderstood developments, the authors examine the risks to the International Monetary Fund, Russias future, the roles of emerging markets, and the future of U.S. foreign policy. They assess the political roots of the eurozone crisis, the key questions surrounding Afghanistan, important trends and tensions underway in Asia Pacific, and the rise of regionalism in the wake of fracturing international governance. Most importantly, they provide a reminder that our world is constantly changing and provide guidance on how to understand some of the key dynamics in the evolving global game.

PORTFOLIO/PENGUIN

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First published in the United States of America by Portfolio/Penguin, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc. 2012

Copyright Eurasia Group and International Capital Strategies, LLC.

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ISBN 978-1-10162-196-7

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FOREWORD

In the wake of the global financial crisis, we have come to a critical crossroads. We can now reflect on the events of 2008 and 2009 with enough distance to provide perspectivebut we remain in a moment of transition as our global systems and institutions face challenges that are both fundamental and fast-moving. The need for a global agenda is beyond dispute. Our most pressing challenges must be addressed collectively if we are to overcome them.

The risk that geopolitical conflict will upset that agenda is more apparent than at any point in recent history. After decades characterized by accelerating globalization, we are now witnessing deglobalization. This dynamic is taking place alongside a broader shift in political and economic power from the developed to the developing world, expressed in the many bonds that connect us politically, economically, and socially. But the fact that globalization is no longer the worldwide norm and underlying driver of growth does not mean our world is any less interconnected. On the contrary, nations are becoming ever more interdependent. Increasingly, we share the same media of communication, seek the same natural resources, and face the same transnational threats, whether from climate change or nuclear proliferation. This dividebetween the splintering of global governance and the increasingly hyperconnected worldis at the root of the challenges we face.

What are the implications of this phenomenon? What changes can we expect? We see a new regionalism that, in some cases, sharpens a wide range of international challenges, many of which are the focal points for our Global Agenda Councils at the World Economic Forum (WEF). This trend is both geographic and thematic, as governance, crisis response, and many vital geopolitical and economic questions will continue to receive less attention than they deserveand will increasingly be addressed in a piecemeal fashion at a regional level.