A. Montford - The Hockey Stick Illusion: Climategate and the Corruption of Science

INDEPENDENT MINDS

T HE H OCKEY S TICK I LLUSION

Here is the definitive expos of the distorted science behind the iconic global warming graph centrally responsible for the worldwide panic about climate change.

Part scientific history and part detective story, The Hockey Stick Illusion by A.W. Montford uncovers the misrepresentations of data behind Michael Manns temperature reconstruction, and the tireless scrutiny by Steve McIntyre, Professor Ross McKitrick and others, which has comprehensively discredited it.

Andrew Montford studied Chemistry at St Andrews University. He is the respected custodian of the influential blogging site http://bishophill.squarespace.com, engaged with scientific research globally. He lives in rural Scotland with his wife and three children.

A.W. Montford

For my family

The Hockey Stick Illusion

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ISBN: 978 1 906768 35 5

A.W. Montford 2010

Reprinted three times 2010

Revised and reprinted 2011

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CIP Data: A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

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Printed in the United Kingdom

C ONTENTS

L IST OF F IGURES

L IST OF T ABLES

D RAMATIS PERSONAE

In 2005 I followed a link from a British political blog to Steve McIntyres Climate Audit site, then the newest addition to the blogosphere. While some of the statistics were over my head, there was plenty to interest a lay reader with an interest in sceptical arguments against the global warming hypothesis. While I was never a daily reader of the site, I found myself returning regularly, learning more and more each time, until I eventually found I could follow most of the postings without difficulty.

From time to time, new visitors to Climate Audit would plead for an introduction to the site and while there were some excellent primers, like Ross McKitricks What is the Hockey Stick Debate About?, there was nothing that explained the story in the level of detail that I felt was required to enable the newbie to get fully up to speed on the intricacies of the science, and from time to time I wondered if my newly-found understanding of the debate would enable me to take on the task myself.1

It wasnt until the story of Caspar Ammanns purported replication of the Hockey Stick came to light during 2008 that I finally decided to take the plunge. The antics involved in keeping Ammanns paper alive, despite the catastrophic failure of its verification statistics, was so extraordinary, it seemed almost to be a public duty to make the story more widely known. Over the course of the next two or three days, I summarised a series of Climate Audit postings into a long article on my blog.