Peter Ward - Future Evolution
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Peter Ward
Future Evolution
FUTURE EVOLUTION
FUTURE EVOLUTION PETER WARD Images by Foreword by
A W. H. Freeman Book TIMES BOOKS New York |
TIMES BOOKS
Henry Holt and Company, LLC
Publishers since 1866
115 West 18th Street
New York, New York 10011
I would like to thank the following people for various reasons:
Sam Fleischman | Diana Blume Kirk Johnson Kurt Keifer Andrew Vallely Tom Sanford | Rob DeSalle Daniel Heiminder Carl Zimmer Alisa Tager Anne Pasternak |
And I would like to thank my gallerists Jay Gorney, Karin Bravin, and John Lee,
and especially Rodney Hill. A.R.
Henry Holt is a registered trademark of Henry Holt and Company, LLC.
Copyright 2001 by Peter Ward (text) and Alexis Rockman (images). All rights reserved.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Ward, Peter
Future evolution / Peter Ward; images by Alexis Rockman; foreword by Niles Eldredge.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references (p. ).
ISBN 0-7167-3496-6 (cloth)
1. Evolution (Biology) I. Title.
QH366.2 .W37 2001
576.8 dc21
2001003607
Henry Holt books are available for special promotions and premiums.
For details contact: Director, Special Markets
First Edition 2001
Designed by Diana Blume
Printed in Hong Kong
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
| vii | |
| Biological Futures Niles Eldredge | ix |
| xiii | |
| The Chronic Argonauts | 1 |
The Deep Past: A Tale of Two Extinctions | 13 |
| The Near Past: The Beginning of the End of the Age of Megamammals | 37 |
| Into the Present | 47 |
Reuniting Gondwanaland | 63 |
The Near Future: A New World | 79 |
The First Ten Million Years: The Recovery Fauna | 103 |
After the Recovery: A New Age? | 119 |
The Future Evolution of Humans | 139 |
Scenarios of Human Extinction: Will There Be an After Man? | 155 |
Deep Time, Far Future | 169 |
| 177 | |
| 183 |
v
Facing page 1; page 102 The Farm, 2000 Page 12 Lystrosaurus and the Permian, 1998 Page 16 Four Interpretations of Gorgon Heads, Genus Rubidgea (clockwise from upper left): reptilian; two after the fashion on a mammal-like reptile; amphibian. Page 19 Early Therapods Mating, 1998 Page 25 Chicxulub, 1998 Page 27 Triceratops and the K-T Extinction, 1998 Page 31 Velociraptor Pursues Cretaceous Mammal, 1998 | Page 36 The Rise of Mammals, 1998 Page 40 North America, 1998 Page 42 La Brea Tar Pit Drawings (clockwise from upper left): Saber tooth cat; American mastodon; camel; La Brea condor. La Brea tar and lacquer on gessoed paper, 11 X 8.5 inches* Page 46 First Encounter Page 49 Fragments, 1998 Page 62 The Beach: Demerara River Delta, 1994-96 Page 69 Pasture, Scrub, Cecropia, Primary and Secondary Forest, 1998 |
vii
Pages 74-75 A Recent History of the World, 1997-98 Page 78 Central Park, 1997-98 Page 84 Concrete Jungle III, 1992 Page 94 Concrete Jungle II, 1991 Page 106 Drainage Ditch: Georgetown, Guyana, 1995 Page 113 Thylacine, 1997 Page 122-123 Rat Evolution, 1999 Page 115 Dandelion Evolution, 2000 | Page 116 Snake Evolution, 2000 Page 127 Crow Evolution, 2000 Page 129 Pig Evolution, 2000 Page 131 Burgess Shale Drawings (clockwise from upper left): Opabinia, Anomalocaris, Hallucigenia, Wiwaxia. Page 138 The Hammock, 2000 Page 154 The Triumph of Humans, 2001 Page 168 The Evaporated World, 2000 |
* These drawings were created with pigments derived from the medium in which the actual fossils were discovered, provided to the artist by the author.
All images courtesy of Gorney Bravin + Lee, New York. All works were photographed by Oren Slor, New York.
viii
Committee on Evolutionary Processes, and Division of Paleontology,
The American Museum of Natural History,
Central Park West at 79th Street, New York, New York 10024
Predict the future? The future of evolution of life on earth-human life, bird life, fungal life? Most of us New Yorkers would say, Fageddabout it! We cant even predict weather with any accuracy more than three days in advance, even with all our global monitoring stations, constant satellite imagery and computer modeling. We go to bed at night, sure that the sun will rise, but with no way of knowing if the Dow Jones Industrial Average will rise, stay flat, or plummet. Sure, we can explain what happens ex post facto (the snowstorm didnt materialize because high pressure from Canada deflected the low off the Jersey shore, or the market fell on disappointing earnings reports in the tech sector). But predicting such complex systems with any consistency remains an elusive goal, maybe even a fantasy.
So how on earth can we expect to do any better with the future of life with its millions of species, its myriad ecosystems projecting whats going to happen, not this week or next month, but hundreds, thousands, millions of years down the road? Fageddabout it!
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