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Howard H. Stevenson - Do lunch or be lunch: the power of predictability in creating your future

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Here is a refreshing antidote to the change manifestos and reinvention tracts that currently crowd the business bookshelves. Do Lunch or Be Lunch is a provocative argument for predictability as the most powerful of management tools. People join organizations to bring about a desired future. But to succeed, they must be able to predict the behavior of those around them. By the same token, they must make themselves predictable. Its mutual predictability that makes for successful organizations and helps people (and organizations) eat - not get eaten! In a fresh and engaging style, Stevenson sounds the alarm on behalf of predictability. He shows how the deep need to predict and shape the future drives most of human behavior. Now, he argues, predictability is imperiled. This is true especially in business organizations, which undermine predictability when they arbitrarily dismiss employees or use self-interest as the basis for all decision-making. In fact, the organization that embraces predictability enhances its own effectiveness; by contrast, the company that thrives on unpredictability is not only inhumane, but also incompetent. Explaining that predictability and change are not mutually exclusive, Stevenson analyzes popular change programs like reengineering, continuous improvement, and restructuring as he makes a powerful case for understanding and preparing for the consequences of change before setting it in motion. The book presents tools to hone predictive powers, make decisions, and measure risk, as well as to understand conflict and improve human interactions. It is as much a useful lens for individuals as they interpret their own lives as for corporations as they predict and improve on their own futures. Passionate, down-to-earth, and highly readable, Do Lunch or Be Lunch will entertain you, make you think, and prompt you to action - to become a leader in helping people cope with change and in ensuring a successful (and profitable) future.

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title Do Lunch or Be Lunch The Power of Predictability in Creating Your - photo 1

title:Do Lunch or Be Lunch : The Power of Predictability in Creating Your Future
author:Stevenson, Howard H.; Cruikshank, Jeffrey L.; Moldoveanu, Mihnea C.
publisher:Harvard Business School Press
isbn10 | asin:0875847978
print isbn13:9780875847979
ebook isbn13:9780585162195
language:English
subjectBusiness forecasting, Industrial management, Corporate culture.
publication date:1998
lcc:HD30.27.S84 1998eb
ddc:658.4/0355
subject:Business forecasting, Industrial management, Corporate culture.
Page iii
Do Lunch or Be Lunch
The Power of Predictability in Creating Your Future
Howard H. Stevenson
with
Jeffrey L. Cruikshank
Research Assistance by
Mihnea C. Moldoveanu
Page iv Disclaimer Some images in the original version of this book are - photo 2
Page iv
Disclaimer:
Some images in the original version of this book are not available for inclusion in the netLibrary eBook.
Copyright 1998 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College
All rights reserved
Printed in the United States of America
02 01 00 99 98 5 4 3 2 1
Exhibit 16 on page 190: Reprinted by permission of the Wall Street Journal, 1986 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Stevenson, Howard H.
Do lunch or be lunch : the power of predictability in creating your future /
Howard H. Stevenson, with Jeffrey L. Cruikshank : and research assistance
by Mihnea C. Moldoveanu.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-87584-797-8 (alk. paper)
1. Business forecasting. 2. Industrial management. 3. Corporate
culture. I. Cruikshank,Jeffrey L. II. Moldoveanu, Mihnea C. III. Title.
HD30.27.S84 1997
658.4'0355dc21 97-12470
CIP
The paper used in this publication meets the requirements of the American National Standard for Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials Z39.49-1984.
Page v
To my ancestors, both genetic and intellectual,
who gave up certainty to create predictability.
Page vii
Contents
Preface
ix
Introduction
xii
1
Predictability: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
1
2
Predictability Important? Says Who?
20
3
Where Prediction and Predictability Live
32
4
Variety versus Predictability
51
5
Predictability in the Past
68
6
How Hard is Prediction?
97
7
Acting to Make the Future Happen
114
8
You, Me, and Agreement
142
9
The Technology of Agreement
155
10
Society and Unpredictability
189
11
Lone Wolves and Team Players
206
12
The Question
221
Acknowledgments
229
Notes
235
Select Bibliography
280
Index
285
About the Authors
294

Page ix
Preface
Picture 3
A professor is one who talks in
someone else's sleep.
W.H. Auden
Let me begin on a personal note.
I am currently on my third tour of duty as a professor at the Harvard Business School. Between academic stints, I've worked in a variety of businesses, ranging from a midsize paper company to a from-the-ground-up investment management firm. I've served on the boards of several dozen corporations. I've written or cowritten cases about some 200 companies. In recent years, with several of my academic colleagues, I've puzzled over the difficult field of entrepreneurship, trying (I think with some success) to make sense out of this rambunctious, highly individualistic field.
Throughout my checkered career, I have been looking for a useful way to interpret all of the disparate things I was learning, in a wide variety of contexts. And I had a growing conviction that there was a pattern that cut across and unified much of the behavior within the many human organizations in which I found myself, in one capacity or another.
In the notion of predictability I think I've found that pattern.
Page x
And you, the reader, might well ask, "So what?"
I can give several partial answers, which are intended to encourage you to read on. Certainly, I'm writing this book in part to share my observations about some of the interesting things I've observed. (Academics are inclined to do this.) But I have two far more important goals for this book.
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