1. Evaluating Climate Change Action for Sustainable Development: Introduction
Abstract
This chapter considers evaluation as essential for learning and for reflecting on whether actions to address the complex challenges pertaining to climate change are on track to producing the desired outcomes. The Paris Agreement of 2015 was an important milestone on the road towards a zero-carbon, resilient, prosperous and fair future. However, while the world has agreed on the need to tackle climate change for sustainable development, it is critical to provide evidence-based analysis of past experiences and ongoing innovations to shed light on how we might enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of actions at various levels. Thorough and credible evaluations help us identify what works, for whom, when and where and under what circumstances in order to mitigate climate change, achieve win-win situations for the society, the economy and the environment, reduce risk and increase resilience in the face of changing climate conditions. This chapter serves as an introduction to the book on Evaluating Climate Change Action for Sustainable Development that sets the scene on the current state of climate change evaluation and brings together experiences on evaluating climate change policy, mitigation and adaptation.
Climate change has emerged as one of the preeminent challenges facing humankind in the twenty first century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states unequivocally that there has been an unprecedented warming of the global climate system since the 1950s and that this warming has been influenced by human actions (IPCC ). The anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have increased constantly since the pre-industrial level, driven largely by economic and population growth, and are now at the highest historical peak. The impacts of the climate change will affect and are already affecting all people and parts of the world often in negative and sometimes unexpected ways. Urgent and concerted action is required to address climate challenges through mitigation efforts as well as through improving the ways in which societies and the global economic system adapt to the effects of climate change. Actions have been initiated on multiple fronts. What is needed is evidence-informed understanding of the effectiveness and efficiency of such actions. Therefore, robust evaluation is a must. That is what this book focuses on.
The year 2015 was a historic turning point for global action on climate change. The Paris Agreement under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted by the Conference of Parties in its 21st Session. All these political commitments at the global level demonstrate the urgent concern of the international community and individual governments for climate change and its direct impacts on sustainable development.
Impacts of changing climate express themselves in a multitude of ways. Already now melting snow and ice, and changing precipitation patterns are altering hydrological systems affecting water resources quantity, quality and continuity, as streams of water from the glaciers and rainfall patterns become more erratic. Terrestrial, marine and freshwater species have started to alter their geographical range and migration patterns, and their abundance has started to be affected. IPCC projections indicate that climate change will in the future undermine food production through changed weather patterns and ecosystem impacts. Notably, production of three main crops that sustain humanity wheat, rice and maize is projected to be negatively affected. Similarly, fisheries productivity will likely be challenged, adding to the problems caused by overfishing. A large proportion of both animal and plant species will face extinction thus exacerbating the loss of biological diversity. Human health may also be affected negatively, as a warmer climate will facilitate the spread of vector borne and tropical diseases to higher latitudes. Extreme weather and climate events are on the rise. These include increased frequency and intensity of storms, as well as climatic variability. While rainfall will increase in some areas, others will face more frequent and prolonged droughts.
Climate risk and vulnerability vary considerably between different regions and groups. Coastal areas are generally the most vulnerable due to storms and sea level rise and associated saline intrusions to coastal ecosystems and aquifers. More and more people are concentrated in coastal areas: it is estimated that more than 40% of the worlds people live within 100 km from the coast and over the past decade more than 60% of disaster losses have occurred in coastal areas (DasGupta and Shaw ).
It is incumbent upon us to deal with climate change in a comprehensive manner. There is a need to address the root causes of climate change to mitigate it. IPCC links anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to key drivers that include: population size, economic activity, lifestyle, energy use, land use patterns, technology and climate policy. All are directly related to virtually all aspects of human activity and aspirations. As societies get richer, their energy use and emissions tend to increase. There is therefore a compelling need for decoupling economic growth from increases in energy use and emissions (Mulder and Groot, ), emissions scenarios that keep warming below 2C over the twenty-first century relative to pre-industrial levels will involve 4070% reductions in global anthropogenic emissions by 2050 and near-zero emission levels by 2100. Although this is consistent with the Paris Agreement targets, the current voluntary mitigation efforts by signatory countries fall well short of this.
It is consequently necessary to invest in adaptation to climate change and to enhance societal resilience to climate change impacts. Adaptation refers to reducing the adverse effects of climate change on human and natural systems. At the 2010 UNFCCC conference in Cancun, Mexico, the parties adopted the Cancun Adaptation Framework) recognizes that adaptation options exist in all sectors but their context and potential differ between sectors and regions. Furthermore, adaptation and mitigation responses are underpinned by common factors, including effectiveness of institutions and governance, innovation and investments in environmentally sound technologies and infrastructure, sustainable livelihoods and behavioural and lifestyle choices (SPM 4.1).
Several international financial and technical facilities have been set up to help countries address climate change challenges. The Global Environment Facility was set up in anticipation of the Paris Agreement to mobilize funding and invest in low-emission and climate-resilient development. It intends to address both mitigation and adaptation equally. Importantly all these funds and facilities involve concrete strategies and action by all governments, the private sector, civil society, as well as individual citizens. But clearly global climate action is not limited to these funds.
