Sarkis - Fear and Greed

HARRIMAN HOUSE LTD

3A Penns Road

Petersfield

Hampshire

GU32 2EW

GREAT BRITAIN

Tel: +44 (0)1730 233870

Fax: +44 (0)1730 233880

Email: enquiries@harriman-house.com

Website: www.harriman-house.com

First edition published in 2012.

This edition published in 2012. Copyright Harriman House Ltd

The right of Nicolas Sarkis to be identified as the author has been asserted in accordance with the Copyright, Design and Patents Act 1988.

978-0-85719-229-5

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A CIP catalogue record for this book can be obtained from the British Library.

All rights reserved; no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior written permission of the Publisher. This book may not be lent, resold, hired out or otherwise disposed of by way of trade in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published without the prior written consent of the Publisher.

No responsibility for loss occasioned to any person or corporate body acting or refraining to act as a result of reading material in this book can be accepted by the Publisher, by the Author, or by the employer of the Author.

Designated trademarks and brands are the property of their respective owners.

To Bob

My mentor at Goldman Sachs a great figure I have always admired, who later became Under Secretary of the United States Treasury under Hank Paulsons leadership

To Bulat

The most exceptional and talented businessman I have ever met a truly inspirational figure

In the course of writing this book, I have been fortunate enough to have had access to some of the finest economic and financial databases in existence. These collections of market data are the result of many years of painstaking research by their creators. I want to express my gratitude to them all publicly for their generosity in making their invaluable findings available to me.

In no particular order, I would like to thank Professor Carmen M. Reinhart of the Peterson Institute for International Economics for her permission to cite figures from the database of government indebtedness that she assembled with Professor Kenneth S. Rogoff of Harvard University.

Likewise, I am thankful to Professor Robert S. Shiller of Yale University for letting me quote from his figures relating to US stock returns, inflation and interest rates going back to 1871.

My task was also made considerably easier by perusing the superb compendium of global asset price performance compiled by Professor Elroy Dimson of London Business School, and his colleagues Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton, and which is published annually as the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook and Sourcebook.

My thanks also go to Professor David Le Bris of Universit Paris-Sorbonne, France, for supplying me with the superb recreation of Frances CAC 40 index going back to 1854 that he constructed with Professor Pierre-Cyrille Hautcoeur of the Paris School of Economics.

I am also indebted to Chris Chantrill for letting me include figures derived from his website (www.ukpublicspending.co.uk).