Sean B. Carroll - A Series of Fortunate Events

PRAISE FOR

THE SERENGETI RULES

ALSO BY SEAN B.CARROLL

Carroll is both a distinguished scientist and one of our great science writers. The Serengeti Rules is a visionary book, which celebrates the new wisdom and the men and women who have brought the vision to pass.

THE GUARDIAN

A compelling read filled with big, bold ideas. NATURE

The Serengeti Rules is wholeheartedly recommended for its entertaining view of biology from an original perspective.

CLIVE COOKSON, FINANCIAL TIMES

In The Serengeti Rules, the author goes from E. coli to elephants to lay out the basic rules that shape so much of whats around us and inside us.

BRIAN SWITEK, WALL STREET JOURNAL

Sean B. Carrolls new book The Serengeti Rules is a passionate telling of the story of the precarious and hard-fought balance that is the very precondition of healthboth at the level of individual organisms and at the level of ecosystems. The book is informative, well-written, and persuasive. The Serengeti Rules is an optimistic book.

ALVA NO, NPR.ORGS 13.7

[A] triumphant account of how physiology and ecology turned out to share some of the same mathematics.

SIMON INGS, NEW SCIENTIST

The Serengeti Rules is one of the best biology books for general readers Ive ever encountered. It should be required reading for every college student, regardless of major.

ANDREW H. KNOLL, HARVARD UNIVERSITY

The Serengeti Rules is a superb journey of a book written by a scientist of the first rank. Unfolding seamlessly from molecule to ecosystem, it explains with authority and grace why modern biology is central not just to human life but to that of the planet itself.

EDWARD O. WILSON, HARVARD UNIVERSITY

Original, provocative, and beautifully crafted, Carrolls book provides a glimpse into the deeper laws of biology that govern the earth.

SIDDHARTHA MUKHERJEE, AUTHOR OF THE EMPEROR OF ALL MALADIES: A BIOGRAPHY OF CANCER

This book offers hope that we can make a difference, that we can follow those rules, and that things can get better on our planet, our home. It is well written, meticulously researched, and easy to read. I also learned more about the serendipitous nature of scientific discovery. I thoroughly enjoyed this book and highly recommend it to both teachers and students.

CHERYL HOLLINGER, AMERICAN BIOLOGY TEACHER

A SERIES OF FORTUNATE EVENTS

ALSO BY SEAN B. CARROLL

The Serengeti Rules

Brave Genius

Remarkable Creatures

The Making of the Fittest

Endless Forms Most Beautiful

Sean B. Carroll

A SERIES OF FORTUNATE EVENTS

Chance and the Making of the Planet, Life, and You

PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS

Princeton & Oxford

Copyright 2020 by Sean B. Carroll

Requests for permission to reproduce material from this work should be sent to permissions@press.princeton.edu

Published by Princeton University Press

41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540

6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TR

press.princeton.edu

All Rights Reserved

ISBN 978-0-691-20175-7

ISBN (e-book) 978-0-691-20954-8

Version 1.0

Library of Congress Control Number 2020939474

British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available

Editorial: Alison Kalett & Abigail Johnson

Production Editorial: Ali Parrington

Text & Jacket Design: Chris Ferrante

Production: Jacquie Poirier

Publicity: Sara Henning-Stout & Katie Lewis

Copyeditor: Erin Hartshorn

by Natalya Balnova

For my brother Pete who prodded me to write something like this for years:

I hope it doesnt suck.

We live as it were by chance, and by chance we are governed.

SENECA (4 BC65 AD)

and dead, are purely coincidental.

KURT VONNEGUT (19222007 AD)

INTRODUCTION

THE TROUBLE WITH CHANCE

When someone says everything happens for a reason, I push them down the stairs and say, Do you know why I did that?

STEPHEN COLBERT

PLAYING IN HIS FIRST professional tournament at the Greater Milwaukee Open in 1996, Tiger Woods selected a 6-iron from his bag on the tee of the 188-yard par-3 14th hole. Although Woods was fifteen shots behind the tournament leader, a large gallery had assembled to get a glimpse of the heralded twenty-year-old phenom. Tiger launched the ball into the wind, it landed about six feet from the pin, bounced once to the left, and rolled straight into the hole. and whistled for several minutes.

It was not, however, the most auspicious start in the history of the game.

Jong-Il, playing the very first round in his life, was reported to have scored five holes-in-one at Pyongyang Golf Club in 1994, while en route to a 38 under-par score in which the then-future Supreme Leader of North Korea shot no worse than birdie (one under par) on any hole.

possible conclusions here: 1) Tiger is not such a big deal; or 2) somebody is lying. It is not hard for any of us, except perhaps North Koreans, to figure out which is the case.

If we were inclined to investigate further, we would discover that Tiger has recorded three aces in his 24-year career (a span in which he has won more than eighty tournaments). We would also learn that based on a large body of golf statistics, the odds of a professional golfer making a hole-in-one on any given par-3 hole is about 1 in 2,500. Tiger has played about 5,000 par-3s in his pro career so two aces would be expected; his career total of three is not extraordinary. of an amateur golfer making a hole-in-one on a given hole is about 1 in 12,500; the odds of shooting two holes-in-one in the same round is about 1 in 26 million; and of sinking four holes-in-one is about 1 in 24 quadrillion (thats 24 followed by 15 zeros).

five aces even more amazing is the fact that, like most 18-hole golf courses, Pyongyang has only four short, par-3 holes. All other holes are at least 340 yards long. So, to get that fifth 1 in his round, the diminutive dictator must have been, in the immortal words of Caddyshacks Carl Spackler (played by Bill Murray), a big hitter.

We do not need any sophisticated understanding of probability, statistics, or the game of golf to doubt the veracity of the Dear Leaders scorecard. Nor, for that matter, do we have difficulty determining the improbability of the claim that young Jong-Il wrote 1,500 books and six operas during his three years at Kim Il Sung University. that, as was said, he really did not defecate?

Even after that fifth hole in one!?

FALLING FOR FALLACIES

Puncturing fables about Kim Jong-Il (or his successors) is easy, but in other realms it pays to have some grasp of probabilities and the game, such as when our hard-earned money is on the line.

can afford pyramids, gondola rides, shark tanks, fireworks, cheap buffets, and to pay Britney Spears $500,000 a night.

Nevertheless, we wager our hard-earned cash knowing full well that the odds are against our winning. Perhaps that is because even in these games of pure chance with dice, wheels, or electronics, most players believe or at least behave as if they can do something to improve their odds by playing their lucky number, or betting on a hot shooter, or wagering on a color or number that is due.