Tshilidzi Marwala - Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence

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Tshilidzi Marwala, Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa

Rationality is a concept that has been studied for more than 2000 years from the times of Socrates to the modern times of Daniel Kahneman. Rationality, simply put, means logical. Throughout these times, rationality has always been about humans. Now that intelligent machines that are powered by AI are becoming common, the rationality of machines is emerging as an essential area of study. Rational agents maximize their net utility. In this book, we use the concept of net utility, which is the difference between the expected utility and the utility cost needed to achieve that expected utility. The utility is the good that is derived from a particular action or object. According to Socrates, that which is good helps and preserves whereas that which is bad or evil corrupts and destroys. Accordingly, rationality is the maximization of that which helps and preserves. Rational or logical agents must meet two criteria: (1) they must achieve their goal or objective, which is to maximize the net utility and (2) they must use the minimum amount of energy to maximize the net utility. For an agent not to maximize the net utility, is like a businessman who leaves money at the marketplace because he has gathered enough for the day. Such a businessman is not acting logically or rationally. Furthermore, not using the minimum amount of energy is akin to going from Cape Town to Johannesburg via London for no other reason except that such a traveler wants to travel from Cape Town to Johannesburg.

This book studies the rationality of machines, especially in the light of the advances in AI, which are enabled by technologies such as deep learning, the abundance of data, and the increase in computational power due to Moores Law. This book studies the concept of bounded or limited rationality, which was proposed by the Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon, of both humans and machines and finds that the bounds or limits of rationality in machines are more flexible than those of humans. It also studies the theory of rational expectation of humans vs machines. The rational expectation is a theory that states that agents cannot be consistently wrong when predicting the future because it can always expand on the information it uses to predict the future. This book finds that machine rational expectation is more accurate than human rational expectation.

The book also studies the theory of rational choice. Rational choice states that if two options are presented and option A offers a higher expected net utility than option B, then a rational agent prefers option A over B. The situation becomes complex if viable options are numerous and unknown. Then when humans make such decisions, they also have to identify all alternative options, which can also be viewed as espousing opportunity costs, and this is computationally expensive. The process of imagining alternatives is called counterfactual thinking. When an intelligent machine is used, the capability to explore alternative options is enhanced and accelerated. Machines are found to be better rational choice agents than human beings. Furthermore, the book introduces rational counterfactuals which are counterfactuals that maximize the attainment of a particular goal. If the alternative option is as good as the most rational option, then this is a rational opportunity cost. The difference between rational opportunity costs and rational counterfactuals is that rational counterfactuals are imagined events and do not have to be practical while rational opportunity costs are viable and practical options that are forgone on making a choice. Machines were found to create more viable rational counterfactuals and opportunity costs than human beings.

Furthermore, this book studies the various properties of rationality. Can rationality be measured? Is rationality subjective? Is group rationality better than individual rationality? Are humans more rational than machines? Do machines make markets more rational than humans? Are machines more ethical than humans? This book concludes that it is difficult to measure rationality and therefore determines that rationality is subjective. Furthermore, it concludes that groups are more rational than individuals. It found that markets that are populated by machines are more rational and efficient than human-based markets. In conclusion, machines were found to be more rational than humans.