Brita Schwarz - Methods In Futures Studies: Problems and Applications
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The frequent appearance during the past decade of a variety of futures studies has raised a number of philosophical and methodological issues, as well as criticism of specific approaches. Is it in fact possible to study the future at all? How useful or scientific are the methods commonly used? Addressing these and similar questions, the authors of this book present three examples of futures research conducted at the national level of policy and decision making in Sweden, The examples illustrate the problems of applying knowledge during the course of a futures research project, the ways in which different methodologies interact, and various means of combining and adapting methodological tools and techniques. On the basis of comparisons of the studies, the authors discuss more general issues, including the role of prediction in futures studies, the disciplines impact on policy making, the usefulness of formal models and scenarios, and the problems of establishing research criteria. Although the authors emphasize that it is impossible to specify, much less prescribe, unique solutions to many methodological problems, they suggest guidelines for the conduct of futures studies, stressing that the value of any method depends on a particular projects organizational and policy-making framework and its objectives. The book includes a concise overview of the characteristics and dimensions of futures studies and the methods and analytical techniques available.
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Christian Schaller
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Methods in Futures Studies
A Westview Replica Edition
The concept of Westview Replica Editions is a response to the continuing crisis in academic and informational publishing. Library budgets for books have been severely curtailed. Ever larger portions of general library budgets are being diverted from the purchase of books and used for data banks, computers, micromedia, and other methods of information retrieval. Interlibrary loan structures further reduce the edition sizes required to satisfy the needs of the scholarly community. Economic pressures (particularly inflation and high interest rates) on the university presses and the few private scholarly publishing companies have severely limited the capacity of the industry to properly serve the academic and research communities. As a result, many manuscripts dealing with important subjects, often representing the highest level of scholarship, are no longer economically viable publishing projects--or, if accepted for publication, are typically subject to lead times ranging from one to three years.
Westview Replica Editions are our practical solution to the problem. We accept a manuscript in camera-ready form, typed according to our specifications, and move it immediately into the production process. As always, the selection criteria include the importance of the subject, the work's contribution to scholarship, and its insight, originality of thought, and excellence of exposition. The responsiblity for editing and proofreading lies with the author or sponsoring institution. We prepare chapter headings and display pages, file for copyright, and obtain Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data. A detailed manual contains simple instructions for preparing the final typescript, and our editorial staff is always available to answer questions.
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About the Book and Authors
Methods in Futures Studies: Problems arid Applications
Brita Schwarz, Uno Svedin, arid Bjrn Wittrock
The frequent appearance during the past decade of a variety of futures studies has raised a number of philosophical and methodological issues, as well as criticism of specific approaches. Is it in fact possible to study the future at all? How useful or scientific are the methods commonly used? Addressing these and similar questions, the authors of this book present three examples of futures research conducted at the national level of policy and decision making in Sweden, The examples illustrate the problems of applying knowledge during the course of a futures research project, the ways in which different methodologies interact, and various means of combining and adapting methodological tools and techniques. On the basis of comparisons of the studies, the authors discuss more general issues, including the role of prediction in futures studies, the discipline's impact on policy making, the usefulness of formal models and scenarios, and the problems of establishing research criteria.
Although the authors emphasize that it is impossible to specify, much less prescribe, unique solutions to many methodological problems, they suggest guidelines for the conduct of futures studies, stressing that the value of any method depends on a particular project's organizational and policy-making framework and its objectives. The book includes a concise overview of the characteristics and dimensions of futures studies and the methods and analytical techniques available.
Brita Schwarz is director of research in systems analysis and planning at the Research Institute for National Defense and is also associated with the Economic Research Institute at the Stockholm School of Economics in Sweden. Uno Svedin is assistant professor of physics at the University of Stockholm. Bjrn Wittrock is associate professor of political science also at the University of Stockholm.
Methods in Futures Studies
Problems and Applications
Brita Schwarz , Uno Svedin , and Bjrn Wittrock
First published 1982 by Westview Press, Inc.
Published 2018 by Routledge
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2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
Copyright 1982 Taylor & Francis
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Schwarz, Brita, 1933
Methods in futures studies.
(A Westview replica edition)
1. Forecasting--Methodology. I. Svedin, Uno, 1943- . II. Wittrock,
Bjrn. III. Title.
CB158.S288 003'.2 82-2825
AACR2
Schwarz, Brita, 1933
Methods in futures studies.
(A Westview replica edition)
1. Forecasting--Methodology. I. Svedin, Uno, 1943- . II. Wittrock,
Bjrn. III. Title.
CB158.S288 003'.2 82-2825
AACR2
ISBN 13: 978-0-367-02010-1 (hbk)
Contents
- ii
Guide
Futures studies have been appearing with increasing frequency during the past decade. Some of them have included dire warnings about the doom of mankind; others have painted pictures in the brightest of colours, showing futures of unbounded growth. Some have spotlighted the future of the world for a century or more, others have prefigured the road ahead for single nations or smaller local communities for perhaps the next ten or twenty years. Some have triggered off widespread public discussion and aroused considerable dissent; others have seen their results fed into opaque planning systems with little public ado.
The reactions to these developments, and the methodological debate in general, have touched upon several fundamental philosophical issues and also included criticisms of specific approaches. Is it in fact possible to "study" the future at all? What was "scientific" about the methods used by the authors of "Limits to Growth" that so greatly impressed the general public? Has not the usefulness of the scenario method been exaggerated?
The authors of the present volume, all of us representing quite different disciplinary and professional fields, found ourselves discussing problems of this kind together. It soon became clear to us in the course of our internal talks that often it is impossible to specify, let alone prescribe, unique "solutions" to the methodological problems of futures studies. Nevertheless, the basic thrust of our argument is that some guidelines for the conduct of such studies can be established, but the usefulness and viability of any methods will depend crucially on the organizational and policy-making framework in which any particular project is embedded as well as on the objectives that the futures study is intended to serve.
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