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Robert R. Johnson - Invest with the Fed : maximizing portfolio performance by following Federal Reserve policy

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A research-based portfolio strategy that uses Fed signals to forecast security market performance

Its often said that the chairman of the Fed is the second most powerful person in the world, next only to the president of the United States. Some say the chairman is even more powerful. When Ben Bernanke publicly stated on September 8, 2013, the Feds intent to continue its policy of quantitative easing, global markets instantly reversed direction from a worrying downward spiral to an exuberant upward surge. Even POTUS cant do that.

The authors of Invest with the Fed take the simple position that correct interpretation of Federal Reserve policy actions leads to better investing decisions. To this end, they present strategies that will help you design a portfolio that takes Fed policy into account.

The result of three decades of research, Invest with the Fed reveals how the nations bank routinely signals important clues about its future policy--and it explains how you can use these clues to enhance your portfolio performance.

Learn all there is to know about the implications that Fed policy changes have for:

  • Value and growth investing
  • Behavioral and EMT approaches
  • Alternative assets
  • Sector rotation
  • International stocks
  • Hedge funds
  • Fixed income securities

If Warren Buffett revealed a nugget of information about one of his future investments, you would likely act upon it. So why wouldnt you act upon information revealed by the institution that controls the U.S. financial markets?

This is the book you need to adjust your investing strategy to take into account advice from the most in fluential financial institution in the world--the U.S. Federal Reserve.PRAISE FOR INVEST WITH THE FED

This book is packed full of intriguing data on how Fed policy impacts asset class returns and can be a useful resource to any steward of capital. -- ADAM THURGOOD, CFA, Managing Director, HighTower

Invest with the Fed demystifes Federal Reserve policy, shows how different investments are impacted by Fed policies, and provides a practical roadmap for investors to consider Fed policies in their investment strategies. The book is written in a straightforward practical manner that is appropriate for both novice and experienced investors. -- TOM ROBINSON, CFA, CFP, CAIA, CPA, Managing Director, Americas, CFA Institute

What could be better? In this book, youll learn how to make money during periods of expansive Federal Reserve policy and protect your portfolio during periods of tight monetary policy. Consider this your best-of-both-worlds guide to investing with the Fed. -- ROBERT POWELL, editor of Retirement Weekly and columnist of MarketWatch

Investors who ignore the ramifications of Fed policy, do so at their own peril, and this text provides effective, holistic techniques for navigating the complicated economic relationships that exist between the Fed and the capital markets. Yet, it is presented in a clear, understandable and concise format. -- MATT SCANLAN, CFA, President and CEO, RS Investments

Investors finally have a clear and easy-to-follow roadmap for taking advantage of the Federal Reserves monetary policies. Youll find out how to maximize your long-term returns and reduce your risk in rising, falling, and stable interest rate environments. -- CHARLES ROTBLUT, CFA, AAII Journal Editor and Vice President for the American Association of Individual Investors

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Copyright 2015 by McGraw-Hill Education All rights reserved Except as - photo 1

Copyright 2015 by McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a data base or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher.

ISBN: 978-0-07-183441-4
MHID: 0-07-183441-9

The material in this eBook also appears in the print version of this title: ISBN: 978-0-07-183440-7, MHID: 0-07-183440-0.

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CONTENTS

To Heidi, the love of my life and my best friend.Robert Johnson

To my family, and especially, my wife and soul mate, Penny, my son, Tyler, and my daughter, Alyssa.Gerald Jensen

To my parents, Carmen and Manuel, and to the love of my life, ElisaLuis Garca-Feijo

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
From Robert Johnson

Thanks to my coauthors Gerry and Luis. Gerrys wisdom, sage counsel, intellectual insights and friendship have greatly enriched my life over the past thirty years. Luis is the rare individual who combines intellectual firepower and quick humor. Anyone fortunate enough to spend time with Gerry and Luis are better people for having done so.

My dissertation chairman and friend Thomas Zorn along with Richard DeFusco continue to have a profound influence on both my personal and professional life. I learned a great deal from working with them. The most valuable lesson was that you could combine friendship and academic rigor. John Maginn and Donald Tuttle are consummate professionals and their influence has truly made me a better person. John and Don are each the embodiment of the gentleman-scholar.

Dean Anthony Hendrickson and my former colleagues in the Heider College of Business at Creighton University have supported this project. I was fortunate to work with individuals who recognize that business is an applied disciplinea simple concept that all too many business school academicians forget.

There are times in your life when you discover who your friends truly are. Thanks to Matt Scanlan and Jeff Lorenzen for their unwavering support during difficult times.

Most of all, thanks to my mother, Rowena, for inspiring me to continue learning throughout my life. She didnt have the opportunities that I have, but instilled early in my life a thirst for knowledge. I wish she had lived to see the publication of this work.

From Gerald Jensen

Thanks to my parents, Bob and Marilyn, who instilled in me the importance of hard work and doing the right thing.

I am forever indebted to my coauthors for making this book project both intellectually rewarding and enjoyable. Bob and Luis are both consummate academicians and true friends.

I acknowledge the influence of three professors that had a profound effect on me and who I have tried to emulate throughout my own academic career, Manferd Peterson, Thomas Zorn, and Roger Stover.

From Luis Garca-Feijo

Thanks to my coauthors, Bob and Gerry, for their trust, guidance, and example; and for sharing with me their sense of humor. Thanks also to Richard Pettway and Jeff Madura for their advice, and for becoming my mentors without realizing it.

INTRODUCTION: FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY

I am afraid the ordinary citizen will not like to be told that the banks can and do create money. And they who control the credit of the nation direct the policy of Governments and hold in the hollow of their hand the destiny of the people.

Reginald McKenna,
chairman of the Midland Bank,
addressing stockholders in 1924

S eptember 8, 2013, started with the global equity markets spiraling downward, languishing as a result of a confluence of economic data that were below expectations for a recovering economy. Suddenly markets all around the world reversed course and surged upward, restoring billions of dollars in global wealth in literally a matter of minutes. What dramatic event caused this remarkable reversal of fortune? Shockingly, it was the pronouncements of a single man. Thus is the power of the Federal Reserve chairman, in this case Ben Bernanke. On this particular date Bernankes dramatic announcement was simply that of a delay in the Feds planned curtailment of its monthly injection of money. The dramatic global response to a seemingly innocuous announcement exemplifies the tremendous influence that the Fed has on the financial markets. The Fed chairman has been described as the second most powerful person in the world, second only to the U.S. president, and many would argue that this understates the power of the position.

Irrational Exuberance

The most memorable case of the market reacting to the pronouncements of a Fed chairman was the famousor, if you are a stock market bull, infamousirrational exuberance phrase uttered by then Fed chairman Alan Greenspan. In the course of a very dry speech (and for anyone who ever heard Greenspan speak, was there any other kind?), Greenspan interjected the following lines:

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