Sourajit Aiyer - The Bay of Bengal: The Next BRICS Asset Class

THE BAY OF

Bengal

THE NEXT BRICS ASSET CLASS

To the memory of my parents,
Soma and Ranajit

THE BAY OF

Bengal

THE NEXT BRICS ASSET CLASS

SOURAJIT AIYER

Copyright Sourajit Aiyer 2018.

The right of Sourajit Aiyer to be identified as Author of this work has been asserted in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

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ISBN 9781845199449 (Print)

ISBN 9781782845669 (PDF)

ISBN 9781782845645 (EPUB)

ISBN 9781782845652 (Kindle)

First published in Great Britain in 2018 by

SUSSEX ACADEMIC PRESS

PO Box 139, Eastbourne BN24 9BP

Distributed in North America by

SUSSEX ACADEMIC PRESS

Independent Publishers Group

814 N. Franklin Street

Chicago, IL 60610

All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purposes of criticism and review, no part of this publication mretrieval system, may be reproduced, stored in a or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Aiyer, Sourajit, author.

Title: The Bay of Bengal : the next BRICs asset class / Sourajit Aiyer.

Description: Brighton ; Portland : Sussex Academic Press, [2018] | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2018021531 | ISBN 9781845199449 (pbk : alk. paper)

Subjects: LCSH: Economic developmentBengal, Bay of, Region. | Investments, ForeignBengal, Bay of, Region. | Bengal, Bay of, RegionForeign economic relations. | Bengal, Bay of, RegionCommerce.

Classification: LCC HC430.6 .A689 2018 | DDC 330.9182/4dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018021531

Typeset & designed by Sussex Academic Press, Brighton & Eastbourne.

Printed by TJ International, Padstow, Cornwall.

Contents

Abbreviations

Africa (Big Economies) South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Ghana (excludes the predominant oil economies of Sudan, Algeria and Angola)

(Economic comparisons* include all the above-mentioned countries. Corporate comparisons** exclude Ethiopia and Ghana due to data unavailability)

APAC Asia Pacific

ASEAN The Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar and Brunei

(Economic comparisons include all the above-mentioned countries. Corporate comparisons exclude Malaysia, Laos, Brunei, Cambodia and Myanmar)

Bay of Bengal India, Thailand, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan

(Economic comparisons include all the above-mentioned countries. Corporate comparisons exclude Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan)

BIMSTEC India, Thailand, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan

(Economic comparisons include all the above-mentioned countries. Corporate comparisons exclude Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan)

BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa

(Economic and corporate comparisons include all the above-mentioned countries)

BRIC Brazil, Russia, India and China

CAGR Compounded average growth rate

CIA Central Intelligence Agency

CIVETS Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa

(Economic and corporate comparisons include all the above-mentioned countries)

East Africa Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi and Ethiopia

(Economic comparisons include all the above-mentioned countries. Corporate comparisons exclude Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi). Also note Ethiopia is not part of the East African Council, the regional economic bloc, but is included here as it is a dynamic economy in Eastern Africa

East Europe Russia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Romania, Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Slovakia, Slovenia, Serbia, Bosnia, Croatia, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan

(Economic comparisons include all the above-mentioned countries. Not included in corporate comparisons)

ETF Exchange traded fund

EXIM Export Import Bank of India

GCC Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain

(Economic comparisons include all the above-mentioned countries. Corporate comparisons exclude Bahrain)

GDP Gross Domestic Product

ILO International Labour Organisation

IMF International Monetary Fund

MENA Egypt, Morocco, Sudan, Algeria, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, USA, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain and Israel

(Economic comparisons include all the above-mentioned countries. Corporate comparisons exclude Sudan, Algeria, Jordan, Iran, Iraq and Bahrain)

MHRD Ministry of Human Resources Development

MINT Economic and corporate comparisons include Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey

(Economic and corporate comparisons include all the above-mentioned countries)

MSCI EM Index MSCI Emerging Markets Index; Chile, Colombia, India, China, Malaysia, South Korea, Taiwan, The Philippines, Thailand, Poland, South Africa, Russia, Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Turkey, UAE, Qatar, Hungary, Greece, Czech Republic and Peru

(Economic comparisons include all the above-mentioned countries. Corporate comparisons exclude Peru, Malaysia, Taiwan, Poland, Greece, Czech Republic and Hungary)

NEXT 11 Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, The Philippines, Turkey, South Korea and Vietnam

(Economic comparisons include all the above-mentioned countries. Corporate comparisons exclude Iran)

PPP Purchasing Power Parity

PSE Public sector enterprises

RERA Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016

ROE Return on equity

Rs. Indian Rupees

Russia and CIS Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyz Republic, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan

(Economic comparisons include all the above-mentioned countries. Does not include corporate comparisons)

RVC Regional value chains

SAARC India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Nepal and Bhutan

(Economic comparisons include all the above-mentioned countries. Corporate comparisons exclude Maldives, Afghanistan, Nepal and Bhutan)

SEWA Self Employed Womens Association

Pacific Alliance Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru

(Economic comparisons include all the above-mentioned countries. Corporate comparisons exclude Peru)

UAE United Arab Emirates

UK United Kingdom

USA United States of America

US$ American Dollar

WEO World Economic Outlook (IMF Publication)

WFE World Federation of Exchanges

WITS World Integrated Trade Solutions (World Bank Publication)

YoY Year on year

* Economic data refers to all the economic metrics like GDP, per capita, savings, investments, population, etc.

** Corporate data refers to financial information of the companies like ROE, profit, revenue, debt, etc.